Past papers (ASSA) Flashcards
Possible reasons for deterioration in experience
changes in:
- mix of business
- target market
- number of policies
- risk profile of the new policies
- risk / economic environment
- reinsurance arrangements
- cover offered
- terms and conditions of cover
- salvage received / recoveries made
- regulation
- tax
- judicial decisions
- client behaviour (claiming patterns / risk purchase / risk management)
increase in:
- crime
- less qualified / inexperienced staff (extra PI claims)
- claims handling expenses
- fraudulent claims
- catastrophic event affecting many insureds
Considerations for the process of premium revisions-
- existing internal data could be used
- data from other products on similar risks might be used
- other external data might be useful (crime statistics)
- Data would need to be adjusted
- reinsurers may be able to provide useful information
- consider competitor’s premium rates
- actual experience of new policies might differ from older policies - consider the differences for these
- different perils should be analysed and priced for separately to prevent cross-subsidisation
- risks should be separated into broadly homogeneous risk groups
- include all potentially relevant rating factors in the data
- allocate expensses appropriately
- rates should be loaded for required profitability
- load for commission / other expenses
- rates should be adjusted to reflect the cost of reinsurance
Premium revisions:
Why should past data be adjusted?
To ensure the experience is appropriate for the period in which the rates will apply.
Premium revisions:
What should past data be adjusted for? (8)
- Unusually heavy / light experience
- large / exceptional claims
- trends in claims experience
- changes in risk
- changes in cover
- inflation
- court awards / legislation
- different target market
Practical challenges when building an internal model
- Costs of :
- – developing the model
- – purchasing software
- – employing actuaries
- – getting systems aligned
- – fixing data
- – implementation
- time to completion may overrun
- information / data availability
- lack of experience in model development
- difficulties in modelling catastrophe and operational risk
- changing environment: due to the time taken to develop, the business environment could change
Explain the use test (internal model)
The insurer must be able to prove that it uses the model in its day-to-day running of the business as part of its risk management strategy.
It needs to consider all areas of risk faced by the insurance company.
The company needs to demonstrate that it has been using it successfully for at least a year prior to obtaining approval.
Give possible reasons for two insurance quotes on the same asset having widely varying premiums
- Differing Policy terms & conditions
- – excesses
- – types of cover
- Different assumptions around:
- – volatility
- – severity
- – frequency
- Different target markets
- Different pricing methodology
- Different data & experience
- Different shareholder & capital requirements
- Different expense loadings
- Different allowance for cross subsidies between rating factors
- Mistakes in pricing
- Pricing arbitrage
- Different reinsurance structures used by the company
- Differing investment return / interest rate used
- Underwriting discounts provided by some insurers
- Different interpretation of where the market currently is in terms of the insurance cycle.
How would you convince a board that your pricing approach is justified
- discuss pricing methodology and assumptions
Explain:
- data used and adjustments made to data
- the reason for rating factors chosen
- all areas of uncertainty in assumptions
- expense loadings
- the actual statistical analysis & goodness of fit
- return on equity and other loadings
- the results of any profit testing analyses
- whether or not prices are fixed for a set period of time or adjustable as market conditions change
Elaborate on any actuarial guidance used, and where you complied.
Define:
“Working Layer”
A layer of excess of loss reinsurance at a level where there is likely to be a regular flow of claims (Relatively higher frequency compared to other Non-proportional covers).
Define:
“Stability Clause”
A clause that may be included in a non-proportional reinsurance treaty, providing for the indexation of monetary limits (i.e. the excess point and/or upper limit) in line with a specified index of inflation / fixed rate agreed upfront.
Reasons for using a Working Layer
- Used to increase capacity
- Used where it is desired to significantly limit exposure to adverse deviations in claims experience or where the insurer has low risk appetite for volatility of earnings.
Reasons for using a stability clause
Used to ensure that the layers agreed maintain real value through time / maintain equity between the insurer and reinsurer.
Particularly useful in period of high inflation or where the term of cover is quite long.
Describe:
Surplus reinsurance cover
- Proportional cover
- The treaty will specify the maximum cession as a multiple of the cedant’s retention in each case, which will have a maximum value.
- An insurer may require several layers of surplus reinsurance to cover all its risks.
- The reinsurer will pay commission to the cedant that reflects the cedant’s commission to the insured, possibly plus over rider and/or profit commission.
Describe:
Risk Excess of loss cover
Non-proportional reinsurance
- Relates to losses arising from a SINGLE EVENT at one time
- It will refund the insurer the amount of a claim above a retention - up to a limit
- the retention and/or limit may vary according to a particular inflation index
- cover will usually be limited to a certain number of claims for the full amount
- after a full loss to the layer, it may be necessary to pay to reinstate the cover for further losses
- a company will normally need several layers of excess of loss cover
State the advantages of surplus
relative to risk excess of loss
for the REINSURER
- May produce more income than non-proportional cover. This will depend on the excess point and number of lines of business, but the reinsurer gets proportion of each risk that breaches the retention limit.
- Arguably easier to administer as information will be passed through on bordereaux.
State the advantages of surplus
relative to risk excess of loss
for the INSURER
- May give ATTRACTIVE profit / ceding COMMISSION, usually exceeds the rate of commission paid by the direct writer
- Provides UNLIMITED REINSTATEMENTS at no extra cost (apart from loss of profit commission)
- Provides significant catastrophe cover, which leads to lower capital requirements. Usually states an event limit.
State the advantages of risk risk excess of loss
relative to surplus
for the INSURER
- cedes only part of the risk - which reduces cost
- can choose to reinsure only from a certain level in line with the insurer’s risk appetite.
State the advantages of risk risk excess of loss
relative to surplus
for the REINSURER
- Can set pricing for the layer, determined as a rate on line
- Can limit downside risk by limiting reinstatements. Also by increasing retention for the cedant, reinsurer is not exposed to as many claims.
Define:
Bordereau
A detailed list of premiums, claims and other important statistics (e.g. largest risks and dates).
Provided by ceding insurers to reinsurers, so that payments due under a reinsurance treaty can be calculated.
Small claims are often provided as a summary, details are only given routinely for large claims, above an agreed threshold.
Describe the differences that you might see between the Reinsurance Company and insurance company premium and claim data triangles
- Data provided most probably only quarterly/half-yearly so FREQUENCY of observation and reporting DELAYS are the main difference.
- The reinsurer will not be able to see premium and claim movements at intervals shorter than the agreement allows for above.
- Claims which are reported to the insurer just into the start of a new period will thus have an additional reporting delay of either 3/6 months depending on the term.
- There will be a short delay between the close of a reporting period and the reinsurer getting the data to allow for processing time and the handover process.
- Small claims are often aggregated so that the reinsurer will not be able to investigate individual claim attributes.
- Premium definition may be different (e.g. gross or net of commission).
- Some claim amounts will change several times in the period the reinsurer will not see all the claim amounts.
- There could exist a 45 / 30 day delay in submission meaning that a reinsurer’s year-end may be missing the latest quarterly data.
IFRS 4
Insurance contract definition
In an insurance or reinsurance contract, one party (the insurer) accepts significant insurance risk from another party (the policyholder) by agreeing to compensate the policyholder if a specified uncertain future event (the insured event) adversely affects the policyholder.
Describe:
Risk attaching basis
Risks attaching contracts will cover all policies that incept during the contract period, irrespective of when the losses occur in the future.
Depending on how the original policies are worded, the losses could emerge several years after the policy period itself has expired.
Describe:
Losses occurring basis
The contract will respond to any losses that occur within the contract period.
Which is usually priced lower:
- Losses occurring basis
- Risks attaching basis
The price for a losses occurring basis is initially lower then for a Risks attaching basis.
But usually you have to buy missing cover later.
Which usually has a shorter reserving tail:
- Losses occurring basis
- Risks attaching basis
Losses occurring basis (given the most likely sunset clause implemented on claims).
8 Considerations when launching a new insurance product
- Licence considerations
- Marketing the product
- Product features
- Distribution channels
- General administration
- Pricing
- Claims
- Other considerations
Considerations when launching a new insurance product:
Licence considerations
- If the insurer is not already authorised to sell such business, then it must seek to gain authorisation for those classes included in this type of contract in accordance with regulations.
- The process of obtaining the licence may take time and influence the launch of the product.
Considerations when launching a new insurance product:
Marketing the product
- Decide on a target market
- Whether to sell directly / intermediaries
- The effects of anti-selection need to be considered
- If the insurer has similar products, they can leverage off those products for distribution advantages.
- Need to determine the likely penetration of this product in the market. Who are the current competitors and try to think how they will respond to this product.
- Need to think ahead on how your product will differentiate you in the market.
- Consider any likely changes in the market (i.e. future disruption / tech)
Considerations when launching a new insurance product:
Product features
- Perils to be covered
- Period of cover
- Policy Limits
- Waiting periods
- Terms need to be clearly defined
- Policyholder options built in
Considerations when launching a new insurance product:
Distribution channels
- Direct | Intermediaries | UMA
- Will our current systems cater for this new product?
- What management information will we require from the system?
- What are the regulated commission rates for the product?
Considerations when launching a new insurance product:
General administration
Consider customers’ needs and resources.
Consider both POPI and TCF.
Considerations when launching a new insurance product:
Pricing
- The level of selection inherent in taking up cover needs to be carefully considered by the pricing strategy.
- Consider the likely rating factors
- Consider premiums quoted by other insurers / protections societies.
- Allowance for:
- – expenses
- – commission
- – profit
- – contingencies
- – investment return
Considerations when launching a new insurance product:
Claims
- When submitting a claim, proof will be needed
- Consider what claims information should be kept helping with our future rating
- Consider whether payments are made to the insured / directly to the service provider.
Considerations when launching a new insurance product:
Other considerations
- Complaints procedures should be clearly set out in the documents
- Any cancellation rights of the insurer / insured should be set out
- A cooling-off period should be allowed
- The insurance contract will be governed by the law of the country
- Possibility of purchasing reinsurance
- Capital implications under the current / new SAM regime and available capital
List the areas likely to be covered in a business plan
- Include your role
- Purpose of the report
- Describe the main aims of the company
- Description of current and likely future environment in which the company operated
- Financial strategy, including Key Performance Indicators
- Key measurable targets, detailed, against which the success of the financial strategy can be measured
- Risk profile
- SWOT analysis
- Business risk analysis
- Reinsurance strategy
- Distribution strategy
- Investment strategy
- Income and Expenditure forecasts / projected technical account general business and balance sheet
- Intention to diversify into other classes of business
- Results of scenario testing
- Capital implications
- Solvency
- ROE
under both Interim Measures and SAM
List assumptions needed in producing a business plan
Business levels
- new business levels
- lapse rates
- premium income
- acquisition costs
- commission rates
- expense levels
- profit margins
Economic
- Inflation (social / economic / legal / medical)
- investment returns on assets
- investment strategy
- proportion of non-investible assets
- tax
- expenses
Insurance
- Claims frequency
- Claims average cost
- Exposure profile
- Claims handling costs
- Reserving assumptions for claims outstanding
- Reinsurance arrangements
External
- Competitive environment
- Regulatory Environment
- Tax
3 Manifestations of social inflation
- Society has a greater sense of entitlement to claims pay-out. This is driven by more liberal treatment of claims by workers’ compensation boards, legislated rises in compensation benefit levels and new concepts of tort and negligence.
- Increasing use of lawyers. No win, no fee type advertising where the lawyer is compensated based on a percentage of the winnings.
- Tendency to focus on pain and suffering. With individuals living longer even in extremely critical conditions, damages more frequently contemplate the catastrophic costs of long-term critical care for an injured plaintiff.
Describe the characteristics of liability claims
- long-tailed
- the basis affects development profile (claims made vs. losses occurring)
- case estimates are highly uncertain
- uncertainty in repsect of reported losses relates to the existence of liability as well as its quantification
- settlement can be a lengthy process involving legal action, particularly for claims of significant magnitude
- claims are heavily affected by inflation (wage / general and court award inflation)
- legal and other claims handling costs are significant
- claims are subject to re-opening
- latent claims can be an issue
- payments could be of a periodic / lump sum nature
Describe the characteristics of accident and health claims
- arise from sudden and determinable events
- notification delays are usually short
- benefits usually paid as fixed benefit
- claims are likely to be impacted by reinsurance arrangements
- can be accumulation of claims
Describe the characteristics of credit guarantee insurance
- usually the cover protects the amounts receivable from loss due to credit risks such as protracted default, insolvency and bankruptcy
- short-tailed
- very close relationship to economic conditions:
- – interest rate
- – liquidations
- – insolvencies
- – inflation index
- – commodity prices
- – exchange rate
- – economic growth
List the Main components of an Asset Liability Matching (ALM) policy
- Market risk related policy framework
- Business requirements
- Regulatory requirements
- Definition and sources of ALM risk
- ALM risk philosophy
- Risk appetite
- ALM Risk Management Framework
- Investment mandate and risk limits
- ALM operational policies
- Risk identification, measurement, monitoring and reporting
- Performance Measurement
- Proportionality
- ALM Governance Framework
- Governance of the document
Advantages of a Portfolio Transfer
- A one-off payment will transfer all product liability
- The insurer will still be operational and future products can still be sold
- No further need for any policy administration functions
- No need to hold any capital to service the portfolio
Disadvantages of a Portfolio Transfer
- The process is time consuming and admin intensive
- Approval is required from the Regulator and the regulator will indicate whether he is satisfied
- Policyholder consent needs to be obtained
- The insurer will still be required to submit regulatory returns and hold a minimum capital requirement
- The cost of the portfolio transfer could be very high
- Reputational risk if the new insurer does not pay claims
- Assets may need to be realised at unfavourable or tax inefficient times
Advantages of reinsurance (to close off business)
- The insurer will still be operational and future products can be sold
- Reinsurance will allow the insurer to hold a lower level of capital
- Lower concentration risk
- Should be the simplest and easiest method of transferring the liabilities
- The insurer can still benefit from interest on reserves
- No policyholder / regulatory consent is required
Disadvantages of reinsurance (to close of business)
- The insurer will still need to run off the underlying policies
- All court cases and claims will still be brought against and managed by the insurer
- The insurer is still liable in the event of reinsurer default
- the required reinsurance products may not be available or the cost may be prohibitive
- The required reinsurance capacity may not be available locally
- Depending on the reinsurance, there could be gaps in cover
Advantages to sale of license (business closure)
- No further liabilities to worry about from the product
- No further admin required
- No requirement to hold regulatory capital
Disadvantages to sale of license (business closure)
- Complicated and requires both regulatory and competition commission approval
- Finding a buyer may prove difficult
Steps to be followed to perform a Section 36 Transfer
Application for Registrar Approval, filling in:
- – Who requested the transfer and the effective dates of the transfer
- – Who the affected policyholders are
- – What the policy conditions are and the details of any difference
- – Agree that policyholders have been given enough information in order to make an informed decision
- – Agree that policyholder consent have been / will be sought
- – Interim arrangements with respect to benefits while transfer is being completed
- – List of assets and their fair value to be transferred
- – Auditor certificate
The Registrar determines whether the information submitted is sufficient.
- The Registrar indicates whether he is satisfied.
- Within a period of 60 days after the transfer, the public officers fill in Annexure 6 stating that the transfer was done as per the Registrar’s approval.
- The 2 insurers will negotiate the amount of the payment taking the following into account:
- – Valuation of ultimate liabilities
- – The uncertainty surrounding the valuation
- – Administration costs or savings for each party
- – The impact of future investment returns
- – Any impact on outwards reinsurance
- – Level in line with the insurer’s risk appetite
Factors to take into account for:
Calculation of the ultimate value of the liabilities
- Size and nature of the risks
- Risk management in place
- Exposure to any accumulations of risk
- Number of claims per policy
- Average cost of claims
- Likelihood of lawsuits with regards to claims
- Court award inflation in the territory concerned
- Chances of a class action lawsuit
- Appropriate discount rate to employ for long-tailed liabilities
- Need for an AURR
Factors to take into account for determining:
Uncertainty regarding the valuation
- Uncertainty in case estimates
- Accumulations and large risks
- Quality of data available
- Stress and scenario testing may help illustrate the uncertainty
How does EVT work?
- EVT studies probability models for the occurrence of rare events
- Commonly use distributions such as Pareto and log-normal for severity of insurance losses and binomial, Poisson and negative binomial for frequencies
- EVT is commonly used for pricing excess of loss Reinsurance for either high layers or covered perils on rare events
- EVT is used either in reserving for deriving recoveries from XOL protections or pure IBNR losses where the protections are either high layers or for covered perils which are rare events.
- There is generally a trade-off between using a lower threshold and more data points and a higher threshold with less data points.
- EVT is also used in Capital modelling fro deriving tail distributions for large or Cat losses
- Two families of distributions are considered for severity, the GEV and GPD
- The GEV is not generally used in practice for insurance. GPD is more useful for modelling the tails of the distribution.
- Parameterization of the gPD is done by mean excess function, maximum likelihood estimation, method of moments, probability weighted moments and the Hill estimator.
- The mean excess function can be very useful for determining thresholds.
- For frequency distributions of this nature the variance tends to be greater than the mean, resulting in Negative Binomial distributions often being more appropriate than Poisson distributions.
Suitability of EVT for calculating highly uncertain liabilities
- EVT can be considered to model the frequency of large losses especially loss of life and large property claims provided sufficient data are available to parameterise the distribution
- EVT can be used to predict the severity of claims in the tail of the distributions provided sufficient data are available to parameterise an appropriate distribution
- The ultimate claims including IBNR can be estimated in this manner
- The level of uncertainty of the results need to be clearly communicated as the distributions will be parameterised using low volumes of data
- The uncertainty together with the risk appetite of the insurer can then be used to select an ultimate value that is sufficiently unlikely to be exceeded
- The distributions assume independence and identical distributions which may not be the case in accumulations of thatch risk
Give an overview of the SAM implications on the valuation of liabilities
- Existing maintenance claims should be reserved for on a best estimate basis allowing for future development of costs and expenses.
- Allowance should also be made for claims incurred but not reported.
- The contract boundary of the premium liabilities of the policy will be the full term of the policy.
- All future premiums and claims will have to be considered when determining the liability.
- Costs should include direct handling as well as indirect costs.
- Cashflows should be probability-weighted best estimate.
- An explicit risk margin based on the cost of capital method should be held.
- Explicit allowance for inflation given uncertainty.
- Consideration should be given if discounting will be applied at risk-free rate.
- Should make allowance for known and expected trends in costs.
- Net of reinsurance recoveries.
Give an overview of the SAM implications on the solvency capital requirement
- Reserve risk capital will be held based on the volatility of the claims reserves
- It should be considered if the industry standard factors are indeed appropriate for non-traditional risk.
- Premium risk capital will be held based on the volatility of the premium reserves.
- An allowance is required for catastrophe risk.
- An allowance will be made for market risk depending on the underlying investments of the premiums received before claims are paid as well as capital kept.
- If assets are invested in another currency, a currency capital charge will apply.
- SAM also requires an allowance for operational risk based on turnover or reserves.
- Allowance can be made for the loss-absorbing impact of tax.
- Only reinsurance with reinsurers in equivalent jurisdictions are recognised for capital relief.
Describe the claims arising from Employer’s liability cover
- Bodily injury claims of various sizes, including some very large ones
- Large individual claims can arise where bodily injury is such that cost of medical care is very high
- Likelihood of some large claims will depend on size of past exposure and trades covered.
- SA has specific legislation covering employers liability: The Compensation for Occupational Injuries and Diseases Act (COIDA) applies to: all employers; and casual and full-time workers who, as a result of a workplace accident or work-related disease: are injured, disabled, or killed; or become ill during employment.
- Occasionally catastrophes can affect this class, although this is less of a feature than for household business.
- Catastrophes will depend upon trades covered.
Describe the claims arising from Product Lliability
- Property damage and bodily injury claims of various sizes, including some very large ones
- Likelihood will depend upon the products covered
- Claim size distribution is generally more skew for product liability than for public liability or employer’s liability
- Class does lend itself to aggregation of claims and large individual claims
- Class action law suits are also a feature of this class
Describe the claims arising from Professional Indemnity
- Claim sizes generally depend on professions covered within the account
- Likelihood of a large claim depends upon policy terms and conditions and generally frequency is more variable than for other classes
- A professional negligence claim against a large firm of accountants may result in a very large claim if a company became insolvent as a result of negligent advice
- Market-wide issues such as pensions misselling claims on professional indemnity for financial advisors, may be considered as catastrophe claims.
Why is it necessary to adjust claims data for reserving in respect of large individual claims?
- If left unadjusted in aggregate data, individual large claims might distort the projection of the OCR
- This is the case if individual large claims have a different claims development pattern than non-large claims and the mix of non-large and large claims varies from year to year.
- Leaving large claims in the aggregate data could result in unstable chain ladder development factors and average development factors for each development year might be distorted by unusually high or low large loss experience in recent year and even when the averages are not distorted, applying an average chain ladder development factor might be inappropriate for those years of account with unusually high or low large loss experience.
- Catastrophes can cause a similar problem to large claims.
- Although the various individual claims arising from a catastrophe may develop at a similar speed to non-catastrophe claims they may bias the average date of occurrence.
- The inflationary effect on a large claim is likely to be different to that on smaller claims.
REINSURANCE CALCULATIONS
It might be necessary to assess current and future recoveries on excess of loss and catastrophe reinsurances. And this may be easier to do by removing the elements of large claims that are recoverable and projecting them separately.
4 Ways of defining large claims
- Predetermined Threshold (90-95th percentile) based on own claim distribution
- Use a suitable excess function
- Consider the point just below the XoL threshold
- Fixed amount based on class and underwriters definition of large claims
6 Different approaches to large claim extraction
- Do not extract large claims from the data
- Extract whole of each large claim and associated history if its incurred claim amount exceeds a certain threshold
- “Once large always large” - even if incurred claims for a loss falls back below the threshold, still treat it as “large”
- Apply indexing to the large claim definition (e.g. to account for inflation)
- Only extract the part of each large individual claim that is in excess of the threshold
What are the advantages and disadvantages of:
Not extracting large claims from data
+ Simple and quick
+ Fairly robust if large claims experience has been fairly stable from year to year
+ Ensures reasonable allowance for unreported large claims
- May result in over/underestimation of IBNR if large loss experience has not been stable
- Does not recognise trends in large experience
What are the advantages and disadvantages of Extracting whole of each large claim and associated history if its incurred claim amount exceeds a certain threshold
+ Non-large claims triangulation is not distorted by part-history of large claims
- Will need to restate history of non-large triangulation each year as non-large claims become large
- Difficult to reconcile with last year’s data
- Difficult to allow for claims currently classified as non-large to become large
What are the advantages and disadvantages of
“Once large always large” => even if incurred claims for a loss falls back below the threshold, still treating the claim as “large”
+ Reduces the need to amend history of non-large triangulation each year
+ Recognises the potential for large claims to become non-large and therefore avoids over-estimation of reserves for large losses
- May distort any large claim average cost analysis