p11

Question 1

an uncertain future - Factors affecting Certainty​

Answer 1

Physical factors​

Human factors​

Feedback mechanisms

Question 2

Physical Factors

Answer 2

Oceans and forests act as carbon sinks.​

Their response to increased GHG emissions and higher temperatures will continue to affect the global climate for possible hundreds of years.​

Deforestation - overall the amount of forested land is on a global decline.

Question 3

Human factors

Answer 3

These factors include:
- economic growth
- population growth
- energy sources used.
The IPCC has identified some key factors driving anthropogenic GHG emissions, shown in Figure 6.9.

Question 4

Economic growth:

Answer 4

After economic crashes, e.g. the 2008 Financial Crash, there is an expectation that they’ll be a rise in emissions during recovery of global GDP. Fortunately after 2008, emissions fell to 1% by 2012-13 down from 4%, then fell to 0.5% in 2014. Total carbon emissions still reached a record high. ​

Question 5

Human Factors – Example​ Economic growth​

Answer 5

By 2014 the three largest CO2 emitters were China, the USA and India. In 2000, China overtook the USA because of a global shift in manufacturing projections and its rapid urbanisation and industrialisation. ​

In terms of CO2 per capita, China is ranked 55th at 6.23 metric tonnes per capita; the USA 8th at 17.6 and India 127th at 1.7 – reflecting the level of economic development, with a positive relationship between economic growth and CO2 emissions. ​

​However, the Kuznet Curve suggests it’s not as straight forward!

Question 6

Energy Source:

Answer 6

Energy consumption grew by 2% between 2008-2014. However renewables made up two-thirds of the increase in electricity production in 2015.​

Question 7

Population Change:

Answer 7

Increasing affluence means a potential extra billion consumers by 2050. Changing diets and increase mobility means more emissions.​

Question 8

Feedback Mechanisms​

Answer 8

Feedback mechanisms can either dampen (negative feedback) or amplify (positive feedback) responses to a changing climate.​

includes Peatlands: Permafrost:

Question 9

Peatlands:

Answer 9

Warming causes peat to dry out as water tables fall, increasing decomposition rates and releasing methane. A warming of 4˚C causes a 40% loss of soil organic carbon from shallow peat, and 86% from deep peat.

Question 10

Permafrost

Answer 10

The melting of permafrost releases trapped CO2 and methane.​

Question 11

Tipping Points

Answer 11

A climate tipping point is a critical threshold whereby a carbon sink could become a carbon source.​

Two particular phenomena are capable of creating tipping points ​

Forest die back​

Changes to thermohaline circulation

Question 12

Forest die back​

Answer 12

Rainfall in the amazon basin is largely recycled from moisture within the forest. If the rainforest is subject to drought, trees die back.​

A tipping point can be reached when the level of die back actually stops the recycling of moisture – resulting in further die back. ​

Question 13

Thermohaline circulation​

Answer 13

• Increased melting of northern glaciers and ice caps would result in large amounts of non-salty, less dense water entering into the oceans.
• This would disturb the conveyor belt of hot water moving from the tropics to the cold water from the poles.
• The change in the thermohaline system may result in cooling of temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere.

Question 14

Future changes to carbon stores
Terrestrial sinks

Answer 14

Modelled to increase generally until 2050
When saturation is reached they begin to act as sources:
* thawing tundra permafrost in the Arctic
* shift of boreal forests to the north as tundra thaws; these may be able to store more COz if more nutrients (nitrogen) available
* tropical rainforests are already at their carbon capacity and may reduce their storage, especially after drought

Question 15

Future changes to carbon stores
Oceanic sink

Answer 15

Increased store in sea grasses and algae, but overall reduction as sink because:
* tropical oceans have decreased COz solubility because they are warming, so less uptake of CO2
* decreased efficiency and slowing down of the biological pump taking nutrients and dissolved inorganic carbon from the surface to ocean floor sediment sink

Question 16

Key concept: Climate forcing

Answer 16

Predictions are uncertain because changes to the climate have several causes and feedback mechanisms. Increasing GHGs, changes in volcanic aerosols and ozone levels all cause similar circulation changes in models of the atmosphere.

Question 17

Facing the Future​

Answer 17

Even if greenhouse gas emissions were to stabilise or even fall, the planet would continue to warm.​

Therefore it’s important to assess consequent changes, whilst trying to prevent them from worsening.​

​

The IPCC outlined two approaches for the future:​

Adaption​

Mitigation​

Question 18

Adaption​

Answer 18

Adopting new ways of doing things in order to live with the likely outcome of climate change.​

Question 19

Mitigation:​

Answer 19

Involves the reduction or prevention of GHG emissions by new technologies e.g. renewables​

Question 20

The more CO, there is in the atmosphere,

Answer 20

the greater the effects on Earth’s systems, and hence the more difficult adaptation will be.

Question 21

specific adaptation strategies for a changed climate

costs and benefits

Answer 21

Water conservation and management
Resilient agricultural systems
Land-use planning
Flood-risk management
Solar radiation management

Question 22

Water conservation and management
benefits

Answer 22

Less resources used, less groundwater abstraction
Attitudinal change operates on a long-term basis: use more grey water (recycled water)

Question 23

Resilient agricultural systems benefits

Answer 23

Higher-tech, drought-tolerant species help resistance to climate change and increased diseases
Low-tech measures and better practices generate healthier soils and may help CO2 sequestration and water storage: selective irrigation, mulching, cover crops, crop rotation, reduced ploughing, agroforestry
More ‘indoor’ intensive farming

Question 24

Land-use planning benefits

Answer 24

Soft management: land-use zoning, building restrictions in vulnerable flood plains and low-lying coasts
Enforcing strict run-off controls and soakaways

Question 25

Flood-risk management benefits

Answer 25

Hard management traditionally used: localised flood defences, river dredging
Simple changes can reduce flood risk, e.g. permeable tarmac
Reduced deforestation and more afforestation upstream to absorb water and reduce downstream flood risk

Question 26

Solar radiation management benefits

Answer 26

Geoengineering involves ideas and plans to deliberately intervene in the climate system to counteract global warming
The proposal is to use orbiting satellites to reflect some inward radiation back into space, rather like a giant sunshade
It could cool the Earth within months and be relatively cheap compared with mitigation

Question 27

Water conservation and management
costs

Answer 27

Efficiency and conservation cannot match increased demands for water
Changing cultural habits of a large water footprint needs promotion and enforcement by governments, e.g. smart meters

Question 28

Resilient agricultural systems
costs

Answer 28

More expensive technology, seeds and breeds unavailable to poor subsistence farmers without aid
High energy costs from indoor and intensive farming
Genetic modification is still debated but increasingly used to create resistant strains, e.g. rice and soya
Growing food insecurity in many places adds pressure to find ‘quick fixes’

Question 29

Land-use planning
costs

Answer 29

Public antipathy
Abandoning high-risk areas and land-use resettling is often unfeasible, as in megacities like Dhaka, Bangladesh, or Tokyo-Yokohama, Japan A political ‘hot potato’
Needs strong governance, enforcement and compensation

Question 30

Flood-risk management costs

Answer 30

Debate over funding sources, especially in times of economic austerity
Land owners may demand compensation for afforestation or ‘sacrificial land’ kept for flooding
Constant maintenance is needed in hard management, e.g. dredging; lapses of management can increase risk Engrained culture of ‘techno-centric fixes’: a disbelief that technology cannot overcome natural processes

Question 31

Solar radiation management costs

Answer 31

Untried and untested
Would reduce but not eliminate the worst effects of GHGs; for example, it would not alter acidification
Involves tinkering with a very complex system, which might have unintended consequences or externalities
Would need to continue geoengineering for decades or centuries as there would be a rapid adjustment in the climate system if SRM stopped suddenly

Question 32

Rebalancing the carbon cycle

Answer 32

• Rebalancing the carbon cycle is seen by scientists, and increasingly by decision makers, as an essential way of preserving Earth’s life systems.
• The IPCC warned in 2014 that it was technically and economically possible to still keep within the target of no more than a 2°C increase in average global temperatures, but that fossil fuel use needed significant reductions and total elimination by
  2100.
• This was to keep within what is widely considered to be the ‘safe’ limit for global warming.

Question 33

Key to this goal is mitigation:

Answer 33

• Governments have to weigh up the costs and benefits of mitigation with those of adaptation to climate change.
• Long-term goals may involve controversial decisions in the short term.
• The power generated by burning fossil fuels is integral to our way of life, not just in more advanced economies like the UK but in the rapidly growing economies of countries like China and India, and increasingly in poorer economies.
• Making rapid emissions cuts will be very difficult.
• Mitigation may operate through five specific methods
• The UK has led the way in many global policies designed to tackle global warming, but party politics and austerity measures since 2011 have also played a role.
• Will it be possible to cut GHG emissions by 50 per cent by 2050?
• Technology ranging from nuclear power to smartphone applications will play a large role in replacing fossil fuels and conservation.

Question 34

Mitigation:

Answer 34

Involves the reduction or prevention of GHG emissions by new technologies and low-carbon energies (renewables, nuclear), becoming more energy efficient, or changing attitudes and behaviour.

Question 35

mitigation Methods applied in the UK

UK’s Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) policies

Answer 35

Carbon taxation
Renewable switching
Energy efficiency
Afforestation
Carbon capture and storage (CCS)

Question 36

Carbon taxation

Answer 36

The carbon price floor tax sets a minimum price companies have to pay to emit CO. It was unpopular with both industry and environmental groups and had debateable effect on emissions. In 2015, the policy was ‘frozen’.
Lower road taxes for low-carbon emitting cars were scrapped in 2015.

Question 37

Renewable switching

Answer 37

The relationship between the big energy providers and the government dictates the amount of switching from fossil fuels to renewables and nuclear power. Renewables (solar, wind and wave) provide intermittent electricity, while fossil fuels provide the continuous power essential for our current infrastructure.
The Climate Change Levy, designed in 2001 to encourage renewable energy investment and use, was cut in 2015.

Question 38

Energy efficiency

Answer 38

The Green Deal scheme encouraged energy-saving improvements to homes, such as efficient boilers and lighting, and improved insulation. It was scrapped in 2015.
Energy suppliers must comply with the Energy Company Obligation scheme to deliver energy efficient measures to householders.

Question 39

Afforestation

Answer 39

Tree planting in the UK is increasing, helping carbon sequestration. It involves the Forestry Commission, charities such as the National Trist and Woodland Trust, landowners and local authorities. The Big Tree Plant campaign encourages communities to plant 1 million new trees, mostly in urban areas.

Question 40

Carbon capture and storage (CCS)

Answer 40

Few actual geologic CCS projects exist globally, despite its potential. Canada’s Boundary Dam is the only large scale working scheme.
In 2015, the UK government cancelled its investment into full-scale projects at gas- and coal-powered plants in Peterhead in Scotland and Drax in Yorkshire, respectively.

Question 41

mitigation needs agreement at national, global and individual scales. ​

Answer 41

Global - UN roadmaps and goals

National - TNCs. Shell’s research and management as well as groups like Greenpeace ​

Local - Winchester’s WinACC who lobby for local changes in attitude and actions​

Public - online e-petitioning e.g. the 38 degrees campaign. ​

Question 42

Global - UN roadmaps and goals​

Answer 42

A roadmap is a essentially a ‘toolbox’ - a collection of guidance and advice.​

The UN has a roadmap to help local areas and communities take part in and work towards the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). It covers a range of strategies that can be adapted to the specific contexts and needs of different cities ad regions. ​

The UN SDG Roadmap has 5 parts: awareness raising; advocacy; implementation; monitoring; and where do we go from here?​

​

It aims to support local and regional governments and their associations to implement and monitor the SDGs and to influence national policy-making with a view to creating an enabling environment for action at local and regional level. ​

Question 43

National - TNCs. Shell’s research

Answer 43

Invested heavily in the lowest-carbon biofuel, through a joint venture with Cosan in Brazil as well as supporting second-generation biofuel options.​

‘New Energies’ business was created in 2016, aiming to explore investment opportunities in energy solutions that combine wind and solar power with gas.​

‘Shell Ventures’, established in 1996 invests in start-ups and small/medium enterprises to encourage scale and growth. There focused is mixed, however renewables is an area receiving investment. Specifically supporting customers meeting their personal energy use, as well as investing in wind and solar and storage solutions. ​

Question 44

National - TNCs. groups like Greenpeace ​

Answer 44

An international organisation founded in 1971.​

Has the aim of having a green and peaceful world and work on several priority campaigns such as: fossil fuels; deforestation; ocean plastic. ​

Greenpeace investigates those responsible for environmental crime and work with affected communities to identify solutions.​

Question 45

Local - Winchester’s WinACC who lobby for local changes in attitude and actions​

Answer 45

A local environmental organisation that ‘thinks globally’ but ‘starts locally’.​

WinACC began in 2007, seeking to influence behaviour change at the grassroots (local) and policymakers level, becoming successful on a variety of community projects and the priority given to climate change by Winchester City Council. ​

The group works with the local council to lower the carbon footprint of the Winchester District by inspiring sustainable living. They work with a variety of people including local residents; businesses; educators; and policy and decision makers. ​

There aim is to cut the carbon footprint of Winchester District by 60% by 2030 and to ensure that at least 15% of the energy used in the district comes from local renewable sources by the end of 2020.​

Question 46

Public - online e-petitioning e.g.

Answer 46

the 38 degrees campaign.

38 Degrees is an online campaigning organisation, involving more than 2 million people from every corner of the UK. ​

The organisation was launched in 2009 and is a not-for-profit company.​

It aims to empower citizens by providing easy ways for people to take action against issues that they care about, including climate change.​

​

Question 47

Global Actions​

Answer 47

Kyoto Protocol​

Paris Agreement​

Question 48

Paris Agreement (COP21)

Answer 48

195 participating countries agreed to the landmark Paris Climate Agreement in November 2016, accounting for 66% of global emissions.​

It was the first universally legally binding global climate deal.​

There was an overarching aim: to limit temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.​

Countries set their own goals to reduce emissions. ​

Countries should honestly report their progress every 5 years.

Question 49

Paris Agreement Advantages

Answer 49

Countries can set their own individual targets.​

195 countries signed up.​

Individual targets all work towards of limiting temperature increase to 1.5˚C above pre-industrial levels. ​

Question 50

Paris Agreement disadvantages

Answer 50

No punishment if targets aren’t met.​

Signing the agreement and acting on it are two different things.​

A national effort is required for targets to be met, including public backing, which can be tricky.​

Progress reporting may not be accurate.​

Not a truly global agreement as developing countries are omitted that haven’t created the pollution.​

Question 51

COP26 – Paris Follow Up

Answer 51

The COP26 summit brought parties together to accelerate action towards the goals of the Paris Agreement and the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change.​

This meeting reviewed the plans and updates submitted from countries, reviewing how they will reduce their emissions – these are known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs).​

COP26 concluded that all countries agreed to keep the 1.5°C target and the ‘Glasgow Climate Pact’ means that the 1.5°C remains in sight and scales up action on dealing with climate impacts, but it will only be delivered with concerted and immediate global efforts.

Question 52

the high seas treaty

Answer 52

• The high seas -also known as Areas Beyond National Jurisdiction (ABNJ)- represent forty per cent of the surface of the planet and two-thirds of the world’s oceans; these areas are outside the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) of each coastal nation.
• There’s great biodiversity in these areas, it’s full of life and structures such as whales (among other creatures) and hydrothermal vents, corals and seamounts.
• In 1982, a treaty called the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) was signed to regulate and manage the activities and use of the world’s oceans.
• The EEZs were established in this treaty as a part of the nation’s territory where each country has the power to use 200 nautical miles area to explore it and use the resources.
• However, they must have laws to give proper management to it in order to avoid overexploitation.
• There are other organisations along with the UN that help to protect, regulate and defend areas and species under threat such as the High seas alliance, International Whaling Commission, Antarctic and Southern Ocean Coalition, just to mention a few of them.

Question 53

The Kyoto Protocol

Answer 53

• The first major international effort to encourage both long- and short-term climate change mitigation was the 1997 Kyoto Protocol, an agreement to cut GHG emissions by five per cent on 1990 levels by 2012.
• The Kyoto Protocol has been widely seen as a real step forward in global mitigation
  The Kyoto Protocol is an international agreement linked to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, which commits its parties by setting internationally binding emission reduction targets.​
• Recognising that developed countries are principally responsible for the current high levels of GHG emissions in the atmosphere as a result of more than 150 years of industrial activity, the protocol places a heavier burden on developed nations under the principle of “common but differentiated responsibilities.”​
• The Kyoto Protocol was adopted in Kyoto, Japan, on 11 December 1997 and entered into force on 16 February 2005.
• The detailed rules for the implementation of the Protocol were adopted at COP 7 in Marrakesh, Morocco, in 2001, and are referred to as the “Marrakesh Accords.”
• Its first commitment period started in 2008 and ended in 2012.​

Question 54

Kyoto’s mixed results
Successes

Answer 54

• Kyoto operates until 2020. It started a global approach to tackling anthropogenic climate change. It was the beginning of regular UN conferences on climate change (COP).
• The Clean Development Mechanism supports 75 developing countries in developing less polluting technology.
• Kyoto paved the way for new rules and measurements on low carbon legislation, such as the UK’s 2008 Climate Change Act. China is slowing emissions (although that may be due to an economic downturn as well as greener energy).
• By 2012 emissions were 22.6% lower than the 1990 levels, well beyond the 5% goal. However, 2015 showed a 65% increase above 1990 levels, mainly driven by India and China.

Question 55

Failures

Answer 55

• Slow ratification. The UK was one of the first but others struggled (Russia) or withdrew (USA, Canada and Japan), fearing economic impacts.
• Only industrialised countries were asked to sign, not developing nations. The top emitters - the USA and China - were left out of the agreement.
• Complex trading systems were started allowing the trading of
  ‘carbon credits’, buying emission allowances from countries not needing them. Carbon sinks were allowed to ‘offset’ emissions.
  Both these are criticised for allowing polluters to pollute.
• Emission reductions may be because of other factors, such as cheaper gas replacing coal, and a global shift of manufacturing from MEDCs to the ‘global south’.

Question 56

A roadmap for the death of fossil fuels?
Report from Paris, 12 December 2015

Answer 56

At last, after months of negotiations, all the countries of the world signed the successor to the Kyoto Protocol at the UN Climate Conference, COP21, today.
If the target of holding global warming to well below
2°C, or even 1.5°C, by 2020, is to be met, it will need deeper carbon cuts and greater clean energy. Aid and technology will need to flow much more effectively from wealthier nations to developing ones.
However, the agreement sends a clear message to the thousands of cities, regions, businesses and individuals across the world already committed to climate action, that their vision of a low-carbon, resilient future is the twenty-first century’s common roadmap. Is it the end of five generations of attitudes towards fossil fuels?
Unfortunately, the legacy of our emissions will take the carbon cycle thousands of years to rebalance.
So, what is the UK’s position? On the one hand the UK’s government is a world leader in advocating mit-igation, and a supporter of Kyoto. It created a department for energy and climate matters, the DECC, and wrote a new climate strategy in 2016. However, this doesn’t seem to match the huge cuts made in 2015 in subsidising and promoting greener alternatives, delays over new nuclear power stations and support for fracking for fossil fuels…

Question 57

overview of climate change

Answer 57