P1 T4: Voting Behaviour and the Media Flashcards
1
Q
4.1 Define long-term influences on voting behaviour
A
Long-term influences (also known as social factors) are factors that affect electoral outcomes over a number of elections and may be relevant to all elections
2
Q
4.1 Define short-term influences on voting behaviour
A
Short-term influences are specific to particular elections and so do not allow conclusions to be drawn about voting patterns in general
3
Q
4.1 Give some stats about how age groups affected voting behaviour at the 2024 general election
A
- Less than 8% of under 30s voted Cons., increasing to 46% of over 70s
- Below 50s had 41-46% voted Labour for each category, decreasing to just 20% for over 70s
- LDs backed similarly across age groups, Greens more popular with young people, Reform more popular with old people
4
Q
4.1 Give some stats about how gender affected voting behaviour at the 2024 general election
A
- 34% of men & 35% of women voted Labour, 12% of men & 13% of women voted LD
- 26% of women and 23% of men voted Cons., 17% of men & 12% of women voted Reform
5
Q
4.1 Give some stats about how social grade affected voting behaviour at the 2024 general election
A
- 36% ABC1 & 33% C2DE voted Labour, 25% ABC1 & 23% C2DE voted Cons.
- 11% ABC1 and 20% C2DE voted Reform
6
Q
4.1 What does the sociological model of voting behaviour tell? What are the significant factors of this model?
A
Voters adopt a voting pattern that reflects their economic and social position, significant factors include social class, gender, ethnicity, religion, and region
7
Q
4.1 Why do sociological factors affect voting?
A
- Impact of political socialisation - behaving the way you have learnt to from those around you, most commonly from family
OR - Rationality - people support the party that is most likely to back them
8
Q
4.1 What is class alignment?
A
When people associate themselves with a class and firmly believe they belong to it, e.g. 1945-70 voters
9
Q
4.1 What is partisan alignment? Give the example of voting patterns 1964-66
A
When voters have a strong, long-term attachment to a party and support is certain no matter what, e.g. explains 1964-66 voting patterns:
- 64% C2DE voted Labour
- 62% ABC1 voted Conservative
10
Q
4.1 What is the party identification model?
A
People develop a psychological attachment to a party, voting is therefore a commitment to that party rather than a product of policies, leaders, & campaigns
11
Q
4.1 What is a class dealignment? What does this NOT mean?
A
Individuals no longer identify themselves as belonging to a certain class. This does not mean however that social class has become irrelevant to voting behaviour, just less important
12
Q
4.1 What is partisan dealignment? What are 3 explanations for it?
A
- Individuals no longer identify themselves as being associated with a particular party on a long-term basis
Explanations:
- Increased education - voters question traditional loyalties
- Impact of media - wider access to political info, less dependent on biased papers
- Ideological change - shifts in party policies since ’80s - alienated traditional voters
13
Q
4.1 What is class dealignment? What are 3 explanations for it?
A
- Individuals no longer identify themselves as belonging to a class
Explanations: - Changing class system - manual workforce shrunk from 58% in 1961 to 24% in 2025
- Cross-class locations - decline in trade unions, rise in home ownership
- Embourgeoisement - some working class people think of themselves as middle class
14
Q
4.1 Describe the link between voting and social class over time
A
- 1979 - 51% of voters voted for their ‘natural’ party, down to 44% by 1987
- 2005 - 10% of voters had a ‘very strong’ party attachment
- 2010 GE - 38% of ‘class voters’, 40% in 2015
- 2017 - Cons. performed better than Lab. among C2DE & ABC1 voters (44%)
15
Q
4.1 What is the main trend for gender bias in the UK?
A
Traditionally, females have voted more Conservative, decreased this with Thatcher, returned with Major
1997, Lab. supported by an equal number of men and women - first GE they would have won with a purely female electorate - again in 2001 & 2005
16
Q
4.1 Describe the differences in how genders voted from 2017-2024
A
2017: Women equally split between Cons. & Lab. (43%) & men backed Tories (45% to 39%)
2019: Women voted Tory (44% to 35% Lab.) & men voted Tory (46% to 31% to Lab.)
2024: Women voted Lab. (35% to 23% Cons.), men voted Lab. (34% to 26% Cons.), LDs had 12% men & 13% women, Reform had 17% men & 12% women
17
Q
4.1 Why is there a tendency for older people to vote Conservative?
A
They are financially better off/they are fearful of change
18
Q
4.1 How did age affect the 2024 General Election results?
A
- 8% of under 30s voted Cons., vs 46% of 70+
- 41-46% in groups below 50 voted Lab., 20% of 70+
- LD similar across age groups, greens popular among young people, reform popular among older people
19
Q
4.1 Why do BME voters traditionally vote Labour?
A
Because of the party’s pro-immigration status & the measures they have introduced to support immigrant communities
20
Q
4.1 Why is ethnic minority support for Labour linked to social class?
A
Black and ethnic minority groups generally experience lower incomes & higher unemployment - more likely to be working class
21
Q
4.1 Give stats for BME voters from 2017-2024
A
2017: 77% Lab. vs 20% Cons.
2019: 64% Lab. vs 20% Tory
2024: 46% Lab. vs 17% Tory
22
Q
4.1 Traditionally, how have different areas of the UK voted?
A
‘North-South divide’ has dictated voting in the past - the North voted Labour & the South voted Conservative
23
Q
4.1 What regions is Reform popular in?
A
Reform is nationally supported with its voters not concentrated in a specific area
24
Q
4.1 How has Scotland voted in the past?
A
- 1997 onwards, SNP grew until its peak of 48 seats in 2019, collapsed in 2024 to just 9 seats, in 2024 Labour dominated Scotland by winning 37/57 seats
25
4.1 How has Wales voted in the past?
2019 - 22 Lab., 14 Cons., 4 PC
2024 - 27 Lab., 4 PC, 1 LD, 0 Cons.
26
4.1 What is electoral volatility?
The degree of change in voting behaviour between elections - over time voters have been more willing to switch parties, e.g. 2010-2017 49% of voters voted for at least 2 different parties across the 3 elections
27
4.1 What is issue voting? Give an example
Voting decisions that are based on specific issues rather than typical factors, e.g. Labour MP Khalid Mahmood lost his Birmingham Perry Barr constituency to Ayoub Khan, an independent who focused his campaign entirely on Gaza
28
4.1 What is rational choice theory?
- Voters vote for the party that is most likely to benefit them and their interests - voters are portrayed like consumers
29
4.1 Have voters behaved like consumers in these elections: 1997, 2005, 2019, and 2024?
1997 - Yes, voted for Blair's promises of maintained privatisations of Thatcher, cut NHS waiting lists, & no rise in income tax
2005 - Less like consumers - Tories promised to be softer on poverty & public services but not elected
2019 - More like consumers - specifically on Brexit, 55% of Remainers voted Lab., 65% of Leavers voted Cons.
2024 - More like consumers - voted against the Cons. party, CHANGE ELECTION
30
4.1 What is valence? What does this make voters have to decide? Give an example of voters considering valence
- Valence relates to issues where there is a common agreement, like economic growth
- Voters have to decide which party they believe will handle these issues best
- 2019 GE - Labour's manifesto was popular but didn't think they would be competent enough to implement it
31
4.1 Define governing competence
The perceived ability of the governing party to manage the state effectively
32
4.1 What is the 'conventional wisdom' on elections? Is this true for 1997, 2010, and 2024?
'Governments lose elections, oppositions do not win them'
1997 - True because people lost faith in Major's govt. as much as they believed in Blair's New Labour
2010 - True because Labour voted out - due to economic crash & recession
2024 - People voted the Tories out rather than voting Labour in
33
4.1 In terms of leaders, what is an electoral asset? What is an electoral liability?
Electoral asset - the leader is popular and leads to the party winning because of this, e.g. Boris Johnson 2019
Electoral liability - the leader is unpopular and becomes a reason why someone would not vote for a party, e.g. Ed Miliband 2015
34
4.1 Give an example of a leader who has been an electoral asset, give an example of one who has been an electoral liability
Asset - Tony Blair 1997 - 'New Labour' was much more appealing to the public with the strong character of Blair
Liability - Ed Miliband 2015 - Bacon sandwich picture derailed his campaign
35
4.1 Give some examples of how party image has affected voting behaviour
- 90s - Cons. split over Europe, Major's cabinet rebelled against him
- '97 & '01 - party's image was transformed due to new policies combined with a new leader
- Theresa May 2017 - 'strong & stable' image destroyed during campaign, showing reality of a stubborn leader w/ weak policies
36
4.1 What is the criticism of election campaigns on voting behaviour?
Campaigns serve only to reinforce pre-existing views rather than change them
37
4.1 What are three examples of election campaigns that went against this trend: 'campaigns only reinforce pre-existing views rather than change them'?
- 1992 - 'Grey' incumbent Major was brought to life during his campaign with speeches and public appearances
- 2017 - Corbyn began campaigning 20 points behind May, by the end Labour's vote share had increased by 10% - enthused the young
- 2019 - Labour used similar strategies again - popular policies, social media, % TV appearances allowed Corbyn to close the gap with Johnson
38
4.1 Why has turnout declined in the 21st C.?
Decrease in partisanship as Cons. & Lab. become more similar. Also an increase in distrust and voter apathy.
39
4.1 What is the relationship between age and turnout?
As people get older, they are more likely to turn out to vote.
40
4.1 Summarise the 1983 General Election Result
- Thatcher won by a majority of 143 seats - largest since Atlee 1945
- Unemployment over 3m, 2 years before Thatcher was most unpopular PM in modern times, SDP-Liberal alliance won 23 seats but 25% of votes, split the vote from Lab. who only got 28% vote (their worst since 1918)
41
4.1 What were the long-term factors that affected voting behaviour during the 1983 general election?
Class:
- ABC1 - 55% Cons. & 16% Lab.
- C2DE - 37% Cons. & 22% Lab.
Age:
- Cons. maintained popularity across all ages (>40%), most popular w/ 55+
Region:
- Cons. made gains in London & South, losses in Scotland
42
4.1 What were the short-term factors that affected voting behaviour during the 1983 general election?
Leadership:
- Michael Foot leftward shift - caused SDP breakaway which split the vote, damaged Lab.'s image with divisions/splits
Policies:
- Lab.'s manifesto - nationalisation, more spending, EEC withdrawal - focused on diminishing working class rather than expanding middle class
Media:
- Press built a 'Maggie' personality cult after Falklands
Issues:
- 'Falklands factor' - 59% satisfaction rate (highest for Thatcher ever)
43
4.1 Summarise the 1997 General Election Result
- Landslide Lab. victory, majority of 178 seats (largest since 1930s), end of 18 years in opposition
- Poor state of Cons. - divisions over Europe
44
4.1 What were the long-term factors that affected voting behaviour during the 1997 general election?
Class:
- 41% ABs Cons. & 31% Lab.
Gender:
- 45% men & women voted Lab., 10% swing for women
Region:
- Lab. dominated everywhere, surprisingly strong in the South
45
4.1 What were the short-term factors that affected voting behaviour during the 1997 general election?
Policies:
- Rebranded as 'New Labour' - attracted Middle class
Media:
Blair made friends w/ Murdoch - The Sun backed him
Leadership:
- Radically altered its image, Blair young (43) & a good communicator
46
4.1 Summarise the 2019 General Election Result
- Boris won an 80 seat majority (largest for Cons. since 1980s)
- 3rd election in 5 years, 'Get Brexit Done'
- Johnson's decisive victory despite close polls with Corbyn
47
4.1 What were the long-term factors that affected voting behaviour during the 2019 general election?
Class:
- Class & party dealignment, Lab. lost votes among all social classes
Region:
- Cons. breached 'Red Wall' - won 33/63 of these seats
Ethnicity:
- Lab. strong lead amongst BME
48
4.1 What were the short-term factors that affected voting behaviour during the 2019 general election?
Campaign:
- 'Get Brexit Done' - Johnson's message won despite flash points (hiding in a fridge)
Leadership:
- Johnson not universally liked but a strong message
Media:
- Social Media had Corbyn predicted better than reality
Issues:
- Cons. led among Leave voters - 73% to 15% over Lab.
- Remain voters split - 48% Lab., 21% LD, 20% Cons.
49
4.1 KTD: Are social factors most important in determining elections? Give the arguments FOR
FOR:
- Class still a hugely significant factor - still possible to predict elections based on class, e.g. 2017 Lab. won 72/100 of constituencies with most working class households
- Age a key social factor - older people still vote Tory, e.g. 2017, 66% of 18-24s Lab. & 69% 70+ Cons., YouGov: 'age was one of the most significant factors in the general election'
- Ethnicity important - 2019, 1 in 5 Lab. votes from ethnic minorities - 1997, 82% black voters voted Lab.
- Region important - 'N/S divide', Labour party of urban areas & mining towns, Cons. party of rural areas
50
4.1 KTD: Are social factors most important in determining elections? Give the arguments AGAINST
AGAINST:
- Social class has lost significance - 1960s 2/3s of Cons. vote from MC & similar for Lab. w/ WC, declined until 2019 when Cons. better among WC (48%) than MC (43%)
- Age not as significant as suggested - 2019 Lab.'s share of 18-24s dropped 10 points
- Ethnic minorities include many groups that all vote differently - British Indians 40% Cons. 2017
- Regional changes occurred since 1980s - Blair did better in the South, 2019 Cons. broke 'red wall'
51
4.2 Define traditional media
Mass communication that existed before the digital age, e.g. TV, radio, newspapers
52
4.2 Define new media
Mass communication that uses digital technology, e.g. internet
53
4.2 Define social media
Forms of communication that allow people to create and share content online
54
4.2 Describe the evolution of the media (1900-1939, 1945-1999, & 2000-2025)
1900-1939: Print media dominant, newspapers privately owned & free from govt. control so could express partisan views, gave rise to criticism about press barons' influence on public affairs
1945-1999: Press faced competition w/ birth of TV, broadcast media remained impartial and didn't take political sides
2000-2025: Media transformed, 24 hour news, many TV channels, free information on Twitter & Facebook, print readership declined, competition in stories led to disproportionate amount of negative stories which turned adults away from politics, decreasing participation
55
4.2 In 2024, what percentage of adults consumed online news and what percentage used social media as a news source?
Online news in 2024 - 71%
Social media news in 2024 - 52%
56
4.2 Give data about the percentage share of outlets that adults consume their news from in 2024
BBC News - 59%
Sky - 20%
The Guardian - 20%
Daily Mail - 19%
57
4.2 What are the trends for the types of news that 12-15s, 16-24s, and over 55s consume?
12-15s - lighter news rather than heavy stories
16-24s - 49% TV news, 88% online news
Over 55s - 85% TV news, 54% online news
58
4.2 KTD: Are traditional media sources becoming increasingly irrelevant? Give the arguments FOR
- Print media is declining in the UK with readership falling (21.9m in 2010 vs 10.4m in 2018, -52.5%)
- Print media has limited reach with young voters & those in C2DE class groupings - 34% in C2DE, especially important considering higher turnout in over 65s and ABC1
- No. of TV channels increasing - easier to get news from a variety of sources, easier to avoid political news though - leads to apathetic voters and lower turnouts
- Broadcast media challenged by social media, esp. young and ethnic voters
- Since 2013, influence of social media grown rapidly
59
4.2 KTD: Are traditional media sources becoming increasingly irrelevant? Give the arguments AGAINST
- Print media still dominated by a small no. of daily papers linked with class:
- Guardian, Times, Telegraph, FT- high class
- Sun, Daily Mirror, Daily star- working class
- Mail & Express - across all groups
- Broadcast media remains most important and is dominated by a small number of stations: 76% BBC One, 53% ITV, 31% BBC News, 30% Sky News
- Broadcast media has moved online - BBC most used site for UK news - 2019 election campaign, BBC had 28% of time spent on news (Mail Online 21%)
- Influence of social media exaggerated - changing HOW people get their news rather than WHO
60
4.2 Give the data for newspaper circulation in 2023
1 - Metro - 950k copies
2 - Daily Mail - 800k copies
3 - The Sun - 750k copies
4 - The Times - 300k copies
5 - Daily Mirror - 280k copies
61
4.2 What are the trends of newspaper circulation in 2020s?
- Metro & Daily Mail have maintained their lead in circulation but experienced consistent annual declines
- Guardian & Independent transitioned primarily to digital readership
- 258 local newspapers have ceased - moving online
62
4.2 Summarise the Leveson Inquiry
- A public inquiry into the culture, practices, and ethics of the UK press in 2011
- Set up due to the phone-hacking scandal involving News of the World and allegations of illegal practices by journalists towards celebrities, politicians, and crime victims
- Main evidence from hacking victims, e.g. Milly Dowler's family
- The final report: criticised unethical press, highlighted failure of regulators, recommended an independent regulatory body, emphasised press freedom but accountability
63
4.2 What are the top 4 TV channels that British people get their news from?
1. BBC One - 76%
2. ITV - 53%
3. BBC News - 31%
4. Sky News - 30%
64
4.2 What were the top 3 news sites with the most time spent on online news during the 2019 general election campaign?
1. BBC News - 28%
2. Daily Mail - 21%
3. Local News sites - 10%
65
4.2 Why is TV still the most important source for news in the UK?
- 70% of people access TV for news
- 94% of people over 65 use TV as a news source vs. 50% for 16-24s
- 65% of minority ethnic adults vs. 77% of white adults use TV for news
66
4.2 Why is the broadcast media important for political parties in the run up to elections?
- Communicate with the public
- Debates can be hosted
- Interviews are conducted
- Manifestoes are released and analysed
67
4.2 Summarise what opinion polls are, how they are conducted, and who conducts them
- Trained interviewers ask questions to people chosen at random from the pop.
- Responses are given & interpretations are made
- Involves sampling a large no. of people who are representative of the whole pop.
- Polling companies include Ipsos, YouGov, & ComRes
68
4.2 What did polling companies predict would happen in the 2015 election and why did they predict this?
British Polling Council found polling companies predicted there would be a hung parliament in 2015, however they did not survey enough older people who were more likely to vote cons. so the Tories actually won a majority - this could have affected the possibility of Cameron promising the Brexit referendum as he did it to help his chances in the polls
69
4.2 KTD: Do opinion polls have a positive impact on UK democracy? Give the arguments FOR
- Parties & govts. use polls to inform decision making, e.g. 2019, polls showed that the public backed 'Get Brexit Done' which was included in the Tory manifesto
- Encourage participation & inform debate - if the polls report a close contest, people are more likely to turn out
- Gives people without media access an opportunity to be heard
- Public, media, & politicians get access to accurate measures - stops govt. from misrepresenting opinions, e.g. 2017, May reversed policy on 'Dementia Tax' to make elderlies pay more for social care after her lead in voting intention halved in a few days
- Leaders use polls to trace electoral support, e.g. Polling on COVID enabled leaders to see how they were handling it
70
4.2 KTD: Do opinion polls have a positive impact on UK democracy? Give the arguments AGAINST
- Impacts on parties - incorrect polling may hinder decisions, e.g. May called an election in 2017 with the cons. lead in polls at 17%, final result was a 2.4% lead
- Impact on media - media obsessed with 'horse race style' opinion polls rather than educating & informing
- Impact on voters - 'Bandwagon effect' votes for big parties because they are popular, 'Underdog effect' votes for small parties sympathetically, leads to tactical voting, turnout varies, e.g. 2001 lowest turnout in 80yrs (59%) because polls predicted Lab. landslide
- Impacts on elections/refs. - polls affect the very results they measure (France, Spain, Italy all banned polling in pre-election period)
71
4.2 What is the difference between open bias and hidden bias?
Open bias - obvious bias that is deliberately intentional and clear
Hidden bias - Hidden behind 'neutrality' often aimed at broadcast media
72
4.2 Summarise broadcast media and its bias
- Regulated by OFCOM - balance & impartiality
- Left attack BBC for pro-employer & anti-worker views and Right views them as liberal with an opposition to cons. values
73
4.2 Summarise social media and its bias
- Weak regulation of content & advertising
- Fake news/misinformation has little consequence
- Algorithms select posts you may agree with - 'echo chamber'
74
4.2 What impact does The Sun have on public opinions? Give events and significance
EVENTS:
- 1969 - Murdoch bought left-leaning Sun, switched to Thatcher in 1979
- 1992 - headline 'it's the Sun wot won it' as they had opposed Lab. leader Kinnock
- 1997 - backed Blair in 3 straight wins
- 2019 - widest reach (print & digital)
SIGNIFICANCE:
- In the long term the Sun have shaped opinions, e.g. ruthless campaigns against Kinnock '92, Miliband '15, & Corbyn '19
- However, 2017, 30% of Sun readers voted Lab. - influence of social media
- The Sun shifts opinions with the readers rather than them changing the opinions of the readers themselves
75
4.2 KTD: Does the UK media have real influence over public opinion and voting behaviour? Give the arguments FOR
- Broadcast media is very influential for political news despite tech. changes - more trusted, leaders look & sound good on TV
- Press is very partisan - Sun has backed the winner every time since 1979, parties appoint journalists as directors of comms. e.g. Blair appointed Alastair Campbell
- Social media is growing in importance and challenging traditional media - younger gens. & ethnic minorities
76
4.2 KTD: Does the UK media have real influence over public opinion and voting behaviour? Give the arguments AGAINST
- Power of broadcast media is limited - constrained by impartiality, trust in broadcast media has decreased, growth of social media
- While exhibiting clear bias, print media has limited influence - amplifies existing views rather than developing new ones, papers follow opinions of readers, widely distrusted
- Limited evidence social media has challenged dominance of broadcast/print media - 3% of all users' online time spent on news (2019), changing how its consumed, not who (Guardian, MailOnline, Mirror, Sun 66% of online news consumption in 2019 campaign), 'filter bubbles/echo chambers'
77
4.2 KTD: Does the media enhance democracy? Give the arguments FOR
- UK has free print media, independent from the govt. - May 2009 Daily Telegraph broke MPs. expenses scandal which sent some to jail & parliamentary reform, 2021 Partygate Scandal
- Partisan nature of print balanced by impartial nature of broadcast media - promotes education, 2019 31% airtime devoted to electoral processes, broadcast most trusted, Live TV debates, e.g. Clegg, Cameron, & Brown debate 2010 got 10m viewers
- Social media has grown, public can be well informed - communication between large numbers of people allowing debate and discussion, especially in younger people where social media is the main source for political news
78
4.2 KTD: Does the media enhance democracy? Give the arguments AGAINST
- Ownership of print media concentrated with press barons with significant power to influence elections - dominance of cons. media makes winning harder for Lab. & smaller parties, print dumbed down politics, Leveson enquiry showed dangers of free press
- Nature of broadcast media + increasing competition for viewers is detrimental for democracy - dumbing down, celebrity politics, those apathetic can switch off from politics & young people turn away from TV news, hostile questions can make politicans seem untrustworthy
- Power of social media to create a new form of participation has not been effective - Trolling & abuse esp. towards women & ethnic minorities, 'filter bubbles', fake news can spread, unmoderated & unchecked
