opinion polls Flashcards
influence on media endorsements
-Levenson inquiry, Murdoch admitted that The Sun supports political parties that are popular with its readership
-1980, supported Thatcher, but 1997&2001 it supported Blair
-this matters somewhat as tabloid newspapers have a marginal, but important, impact on elections
media endorsements evaluation
Many parts of the print press is stubbornly loyal to one party. For example, The Daily Mirror supports Labour come-what-may. Likewise,
The Daily Telegraph endorses the Conservative Party even when it is significantly down in the polls (such as 1997 and 2001).
impact on party policy evaluation
while it is true that major political parties cannot ignore polling data if they are to win and keep
power, minor parties often take principled stances regardless of the opinion polls, the Green Party, for
example, continues to advocate radical left-wing economic reforms despite a lack of support with the British electorate at large.
impact on party policy
-polls may lead parties to change their policies to attract swing voters, in the New Labour years, the party was guided more by polls than its socialist ideology e.g. Thatcher’s top rate of tax (40%)
-polls can shift policy away from ideology or membership to short term waves of public opinion
-this can be seen as democratic as parties are responsive to public opinion or it could be seen as undemocratic as parties are in the hostage of swing voters, determining the outcome of elections
impact on party leadership
-polls are crucial to a leaders survival
-‘83 and ‘87 elections showed conservative voters backed the party because of Thatcher’s resolute style of leadership and Thatcher was able to cite polls to explain why her ministers should fall in line, so Thatcher dominated the party
-following the Poll Tax proposal she fell behind Labour by 6% and her cabinet swiftly removed her from office
party leadership evaluation
if the party remains loyal many unpopular leaders manage to keep their position despite terrible polling data, Jeremy Corbyn for example was the most unpopular Leader of Her Majesty’s Opposition in polling history ahead of the 2019 General Election but the Labour Party membership ensured that Corbyn remained in post
positive impact on voter turnout
-when results are close, polls can motivate people to vote, final polls ahead of the 2016 referendum showed remain with a lead (55-45%), Leave voters turned out at 72%, more the the previous national turnout for the 2015 election 66%
-when voter turnout increases, this is good for democracy
positive impact on turnout evaluation
this argument suggests a politically literate electorate that follow polls, realistically many voters especially low information ones do not
‘boomerang effect’
-if a person feels their party is significantly ahead, they may not vote and vice versa
-so polls could be viewed as undermining democracy
-1997 Labour saw this, a month before the election it led in the polls over 50%, making it a foregone conclusion but underperformed (43.2%)
‘boomerang effect’ evaluation
Under FPTP, parts of the electorate do not need opinion polls to confirm that their vote will be likely wasted. 10% of seats have not
changed hands in Westminster elections for over a century.
tactical voting
-polls highlight FPTP central problem, wasted votes, when the tories had a chance of winning ‘red wall’ seats in 2019, tory activists used polling data to explain to ‘Leave’ voters how to maximise the chances of Brexit
-according to the Electoral Reform Society 30% of voters acted tactically in 2019, in 2017 the Daily Mail produced a tactical voting guide based on polls
-in a negative view, tactical voting entrenches the duopoly as minor parties fall victim to this, e.g the Green party’s 2.6% of the voteshare
tactical voting evaluation
outside of Westminster elections there is less incentive to study opinion polls and vote tactically, due to the electoral systems
