(factor) is the most important reason for a party's success Flashcards
valence voting
-Professor Cowley voters choose on competence of governing parties mainly on the economy,this holds ‘strongest explanatory power’
-If a party is in power at a time of economic crisis it is usually punished e.g. 2010 when Labour, 2008 ‘Great Recession.’
-when the valence of governing parties
improves, the government stands chance of re-election e.g. Cameron’s Conservatives won in
2015 after an improvement in the country’s economic performance.
-opposition is judged on its ‘valence’.Corbyn’s expansive economic plans and anti-semitism crisis undermined Labour 2019
valence evaluation
Labour’s vote share from 2005 (35%) to 2010 (29%) dropped by just 6%. Although it was significant enough to remove Labour from office, the overwhelming majority of Labour voters remained loyal to the party. This suggests that valence voting may be limited to a small, but important segment of the electorate (swing voters)
leadership voting
-electorate knows they indirectly choose next PM,perceptions of leaders matter more than issues. Prof. Tim Bale says,voters are a ‘consumer’, judging parties on the quality of their leadership.
-leadership can be judged positively e.g. Blair 1997 or harshly e.g. May 2017
-‘presidentialisation’ of politics,part of the electorate voting on leadership alone,tight elections difference between ‘victory and defeat.’
-polls that deal with whether or not the electorate is ‘satisfied’ with the performance of the prime minister indicate the likely result of the next GE
leadership evaluation
Professor Brown acknowledges that ‘leadership alone’ does not determine the outcome of elections. What’s more, leadership has little to no impact of partisan aligned voters that still constitute around 10% of the British electorate. For example, in the safest constituency in the country (Knowsley) that has a high number of partisan aligned voters (Labour), it doesn’t matter if the leader is Blair, Brown, Miliband, Corbyn or Starmer
manifestos
-Ivor Crewe “votes are up for grabs.” e.g. pro-Brexit
supporters who had traditionally voted Labour in constituencies such as Leigh responded to tory Brexit policy in 2019.
-‘Rational choice voters’ are by their very nature ‘swing’ voters,tend to be C1 or A/B voters and not strongly associate their identity with a party
-Parties develop policies that ‘micro-target’ subsections of the electorate, using social
media advertisements based on their personal profile e.g. Conservatives micro-targeted the “Red Wall” in 2019, winning constituencies like Leigh
manifestos evaluation
Parts of the electorate are ‘partisan-aligned’ and will support the same political party regardless of its policies, because there is a perception that the party represents their social class or ideological outlook. For example, 80% of voters in the constituency of Knowsley supported Labour in 2019. In Knowsley there is a significant degree of partisan alignment (Labour) due to the region’s industrial past.
electoral system
-Under FPTP,major parties formulate ‘catch-all’ policies to appeal to a range of social groups e.g.Labour’s manifestos target votes from a coalition of urban voters,and ‘Red Wall’ post-industrial towns
-results can influence future too under FPTP,voters that back minor parties, e.g. 12.8%,UKIP 2015, may realise their vote was
‘wasted’ (UKIP gained only 0.2%-1 seat) and revert back to a ‘catch-all’ party like the Tories.
-claimed that Labour or the Conservatives clear mandate from the electorate ERS disagrees,2019 43.6% vote 80 seat majority,56.4% voted for other parties
electoral system evaluation
A popular party that formulates representative policies should be able to win seats in any voting system. Arguably the reason the Greens do not perform well under FPTP is not down to the voting system but due to their manifesto: hard-left environmentalism doesn’t have a ‘catch-all’ appeal. To succeed, Greens, or a right-wing alternative such as Reform, should attempt to broaden their appeal beyond the hard-right and hard-left.
