demographic model Flashcards
gender
-women are slightly more left wing economically and socially as two thirds of public sector staff are women, out of rational self interest women tend to support ‘big government’ for increased job security
-women are also slightly more liberal than men on issues such as immigration but this doesn’t tend to show in elections, -if a party wins a significant majority men and women tend to back it with similar numbers
-e.g. Johnson’s 80 seat majority won women 44-36, and men 46-31
gender evaluation
Young women are much more likely to vote Labour than women generally, a YouGov poll ahead of 2019 found that 56% of women aged 18-24
planned to vote for Labour, compared to 37% of men in the same age group.
age
-younger voters tend to be left wing due to idealism, negative social connotations of being right wing, and not have a stake in society
-older voters tend to be more right wing due to having a stake in society and disliking redistribution of wealth, social conservatism (immigration) and pragmatism>idealism
-in 2019 Labour picked up 59% of 18-24 year olds, compared to the Conservatives 19% due to forming some ‘radical’ policies
-the Conservatives did staggeringly well with voters over 70, 67%
age evaluation
1979 is an example of young voters not following the trend of being left wing, after the IMF crisis and WOD, Thatcher won 18-24 year olds 42-41%, after an economic crisis under Labour, the youth may not lean solidly to the left
ethnicity
-BAME voting patterns are fairly distinct, 2019 Labour led the Conservatives 64-20%, there are several reasons for this:
-Labour champions multi-culturalism, and has introduced measures to end discrimination e.g. the Race Relations Act 1965
-Labour won 9/10 Muslim votes in 2019
-Jewish voters felt alienated by the anti-semitism crisis under Corbyn, The Jewish Chronicle said that 90% of British Jews would not consider Labour in 2019
-Hindu voters are increasingly big ‘c’ conservatives 2019, 1 in 2 backed the Tories
ethnicity evaluation
focus on ethnicity somewhat misses the big picture (social class), Hindus and Jews may vote conservative due to their class outlook, aspirational, and most Muslims are working class, hence the support for Labour
region
-in Scotland, the tories were seen as out of touch with Scotland’s ‘social democratic’ political culture, but in recent times independence has grown in political salience creating a nationalist v unionist divide
-2019 SNP won 48/59 seats, Labour won 1 and has declined as a political force in Scotland because: support for independence amongst the Scottish goes against Labour, trade unionism has declined in Scotland, and Blair’s centrist Thatcherite policies created widespread voter apathy
-Labour tends to win in cities (70% in Manchester Central) due to young university educated people
region evaluation
may be overstated as a factor, as Scotland’s shift to nationalist v unionist has shown voting patterns can shift away from traditional left/right divides
