Novo Nordisk

Question 1

Novo Thesis

Answer 1

No patent cliffs, in terms of long-term growth time is on Novo’s side - Novo’s marketed medicines have a long duration. Novo’s portfolio is heavily concentrated in the peptide synthesis space and key therapeutic areas (Diabetes/Obesity) are large with high barriers to entry.

Question 2

Novo obesity growth

Answer 2

• 25bn DKK for obesity in 2025 looks conservative.

Question 3

USD to DKK

Answer 3

1 to ~7

Question 4

Novo earnings

Answer 4

Lots of earnings visibility, consistently raising expectations for the GLP1 obesity growth.

Question 5

Novo Capex

Answer 5

Step up to meet future demand in existing portfolio. Should come in ~25DKKbn in 2023.

Question 6

Novo R&D

Answer 6

organic investment in manufacturing facilities to expand p1 capacity, 3x by 2025 in p1 and 3x faster timeline from p1 to lead candidate development.

Question 7

Novo consumer profile

Answer 7

We are beginning to see Novo transition the GLP1 (diabetes/obesity) franchise into one looking like a consumer profile. With Semaglutide as the pillar, the company is creating variant products (low execution risk) to tailor to different market segments, different doses, oral HD, oral weekly, fixed dosed combinations. To reflect the medical needs of specific T2D patients while still addressing the core problems of metabolic dysfunction with poor glucose control.

Question 8

Novo inorganic capital allocation

Answer 8

Key inorganic capital allocation has focused on expanding to new technologies (e.g. siRNA - Dicerna, oral peptides - Emisphere, stem cells - HeartSeed, HaemA- 2seventyBio), while at the same time moving into new therapeutic areas (SCD - Forma/Dicerna). The company affirms that it will only make acquisitions where they can add value on the development side as opposed to purely commercialisation synergies.

Question 9

Novo Evoke

Answer 9

Alzheimer’s clinical development program with readout expected in 2025