Module 9 Flashcards
What is a risk assessment?
Estimating the probability of a future event based on secondary, indicator variables.
Is a risk assessment prognostic or diagnostic?
Prognostic
What are the 2 components of risk assessment?
- Prediction
- Management
What are risk factors?
Individual or environmental variables associated with greater likelihood of involvement in criminality. Cumulative and interactive, not additive!
What are the 2 categories of risk factors? What one is the best predictor?
- Static. Best predictor!
- Dynamic
What are static factors? What are some examples?
- Fixed or determined (cannot be changed) beforehand, prior to the event occurring.
- Criminal history, age committing the crime
What are dynamic factors? What are some examples?
- Internal states or temporary circumstances that fluctuate over time (relatively stable or acute). May be able to be treated.
- Personality. Is not always the same.
What is the only risk factor of the big 8 that is static?
- history of antisocial behaviour
What are the central big 4 risk factors of criminal behaviour?
- History of antisocial behaviour
- Antisocial attitudes
- Antisocial associates
- Antisocial personality pattern
What are the moderate 4 risk factors of criminal behaviour?
- Family/marital problems
- School/work problems
- Problematic leisure time
- Substance use
prediction: high risk v. Outcome: violent
true positive
Prediction: high risk v. Outcome: not violent
false positive
Prediction: Low risk v. Outcome: violent
false negative
Prediction: low risk v. Outcome: not violent
true negative
What are the implications of high false positives?
individual rights
What are the implications of high false negatives?
Society, victim safety jeopardized
What is base rate?
Percent of people who commit a specific act
What type of error is made most often when predicting rare events?
False positive
What are the types of risk assessments?
- Unstructured professional judgement
- Actuarial
- Structured professional judgement
What is unstructured professional judgement?
- Mental health professional predicts chance of re-offence from interview and clinical impressions. Based on practitioners experience.
What are the advantages of unstructured professional judgement?
Flexible and specific to individuals