Modelling Diseases Flashcards
1
Q
What does mathematical modelling of diseases allow us to make predictions on?
A
- most vulnerable populations
- most effective control measures
- when there should be quarantines
- who should receive vaccinations
- how many people are likely to be infected, get ill, die
2
Q
Describe the basic SIR model (person-person transmission)
A
Host population divided into 3 categories
1) Susceptible (S)
2) Infected (I)
3) Recovered (R)
3
Q
What does the change in susceptibles over time depend on?
A
- how many individuals are born
- how many individuals die from any causes
- how many become infected
4
Q
What factors does the change in infected over time depend on?
A
- how many individuals change from susceptible to infected
- how many individuals die from the disease and from other causes
- how many individuals recover
5
Q
What factors does the change in recovered over time depend on?
A
- how many individuals change from infected to recovered
- how many individuals die in the R group
- how many individuals lose their immunity
6
Q
What are the limitations of the simple SIR model?
A
The model does not take into account
1) movement in/out of the population
2) individuals moving from susceptible to infected at different rates
3) incubation period
4) if there is no recovery
