MM34 Exam Group 1&2 Flashcards
-is when the actual result under a given set of assumptions is different from the expected result predicted by a model.
-provides evidence that a given assumption or model does not hold up in practice. The model can either be a relatively new or older model.
ANOMALY
Two common types of anomalies:
MARKET ANOMALIES
PRICING ANOMALIES
are distortions in returns that contradict theefficient market hypothesis(EMH).
MARKET ANOMALIES
are when something—for example, a stock—is priced differently than how a model predicts it will be priced.
PRICING ANOMALIES
Causes of anomalies in an efficient market
Mispricing
Limits to arbitrage
Unmeasured risk
Selection bias
is the ratio of a firm’s asset price to its fundamental value, which is the present value of future cash flows under rational expectations.
MISPRICING
is a theory in financial economics that, due to restrictions that are placed on funds that would ordinarily be used by rational traders to arbitrage away pricing inefficiencies, prices may remain in a non-equilibrium state for protracted periods of time.
Limits to arbitrage
In finance, risk factors are the building blocks of investing, that help explain the systematic returns in equity market, and the possibility of losing money in investments or business adventures.
Unmeasured risk
is the bias introduced by the selection of individuals, groups, or data for analysis in such a way that proper randomization is not achieved, thereby failing to ensure that the sample obtained is representative of the population intended to be analyzed.[1] It is sometimes referred to as the selection effect. The phrase “selection bias” most often refers to the distortion of a statistical analysis, resulting from the method of collecting samples
Selection bias
Several studies in markets across the world have yielded the following results. Stocks with below average price-to-earnings and market-to-book ratios have consistently outperformed growth stocks over a period of time. This is a contradiction of the semi-strong efficient market form as financial disclosures are used to beat the market consistently.
Value Effect
One study observed that on a risk-adjusted basis small-cap equities out-performed large cap equities. This anomaly was not observed in further studies and was therefore disregarded.
Size Effect
Other Anomalies
-Close-end investment fund
discounts
-Earning Surprise
-Initial Public Offerings
-Abnormal profits based on dividends
issues a limited number of shares during one offering, thus fixing the market capitalization till a second offering is made. In theory these shares must trade at their net asset value or NAV.
Close-end investment fund
discounts
Pricing anomalies studied in the context of adjustment of stock prices in relation to earnings announcement come under the purview of earning surprise.
Earnings Surprise
Companies avail the services of investment banks in pricing and marketing of their shares in their first stock market foray. As the entrants are new, their selling prices are set low and tend to see an increase on the first day of trading.
Initial Public Offerings
Market researchers state that equity returns are impacted by stock volatility, inflation, interest rates and dividend yields. This should indicate market inefficiency especially of weak form. This does not hold true though over a period of time. The relationship between stock prices and dividends has been found to vary from positive to negative from time to time.
Abnormal profits based on dividends
Types of Market Anomalies
The small- firm effect
Price reversals
January effect
The momentum effect
holds that smaller companies have a greater amount of growth opportunities than larger companies.
The small- firm effect
is also referred to as the mean reversion effect and refers to the tendency of stocks that have performed well in the past to underperform in the future, and the tendency of stocks that have underperformed in the past to outperform in the future
The price reversals
is a hypothesis that there is a seasonal anomaly in the financial market where securities’ prices increase in the month of January more than in any other month.
The january effect
refers to the market anomaly where stocks that have had the greatest return continue to outperform those with weak returns.
The momentum effect
Other type’s of Market anomalies
September Effect
Days of the Week Anomalies
Monday effect
refers to historically weakstock market returns for the month of September. There is a statistical case for the September effect depending on the period analyzed,but much of the theory is anecdotal
September Effect