M7: Making Dumb Groups Smarter

Question 1

Groups err for 2 main reasons

Answer 1

1. Informational Signals
   (People learn from on another. Groups go wrong when a member receives incorrect signals from other members)
2. Reputational Pressures
   (People silence themselves / change views to avoid dissaproval)

Question 2

Groups fall into 4 separate but interrelated problems

Answer 2

1. Groups do not only fail to correct errors of members, they amplify them
2. They fall victim to cascade effects (as they follow those who acted or spoke first)
3. Become polarized (taking up positions more extreme than those held before deliberations)
4. They focus on what everybody knows already (neglecting information held by one or a few)

Question 3

Framing effects

Answer 3

When our decisions are influenced according to the semantics of how the options are presented

(i.e. With the surgery
90% people are alive after 5 years vs.
10% people die after 5 years)

Question 4

Planning Fallacy

Answer 4

Groups tend to overestimate what they can achieve more than individuals.

They are more optimistic about resources / time necessary to complete a task.

Question 5

Cascades

Answer 5

When a small trickle change in one direction becomes a flood because of groups’ amplifying effects. Two types:

Informational - people silence themselves out of deference to the information conveyed by others
Reputational - go along with the group to mantain the good opinion of others

Question 6

Group Polarization

Answer 6

When deliberation leads to people being toward a more extreme point after deliberating. People want to perceive favorably by peers.

Question 7

The way to make groups wiser is…

Answer 7

1. Silence the leader
2. Prime critical thinking (critical thinking role)
3. Reward group success
4. Assign roles (and rotate)
5. Appoint a devil’s advocate (and rotate)
6. Establish contrarian teams
7. Delphi method
   - Everyone votes in anonymity
   - Repeat voting, second estimates have to fall in the middle quartiles (25% - 75%)
   - Repeated until convergence