M1: Biases Flashcards
Ease of Recall Bias
Thinking that an event is more frequent than another just because of the vividness or recency of the event
i.e. #Deaths in war seem more frequent than #Deaths by respiratory infections when in fact it is the contrary
This Bias is part of the Availability Heuristic
Retrievability Bias
Biased towards what’s in your memory
Thinking that an event is more frequent than another just because of how memory structures affect the search process
i.e. #Words that Start with A > #Words with A as a 3rd letter, when the opposite is true
This Bias is part of the Availability Heuristic
Insensitivity to Base Rates Bias
Individuals tend to ignore base rates when assessing the likelihood of events.
i.e. Entrepreneurs spend too much time imagining their success, far too little considering the base rate of business failures. Tey think the base rate for failure is not relevant to their situations.
This Bias is part of the Representativeness Heuristic
Insensitivity to Sample Size Bias
Sample size is rarely part of our intuition.
i.e. “4/5 dentist recommend…” if 5 dentist were surveyed the sample is useless.
This Bias is part of the Representativeness Heuristic
Misconceptions of Chance Bias
Individuals expect a sequence of data to look random, even is the sequence is too short to be statistically valid.
i.e. “My next kid will be a male b/c Ive had 3 daughters”
This Bias is part of the Representativeness Heuristic
Regression to the Mean Bias
Individuals ignore that extreme events tend to regress to the mean.
i.e. Baseball players with extraordinary scores. Next year, most likely they will be back on the mean - specially as a team
This Bias is part of the Representativeness Heuristic
Conjunction fallacy Bias
Individuals falsely judge that conjunctions (two events occurring) are more likely than a more global set of occurrences of which the conjunction is a subset
i.e. Thinking
P(Linda is Smart+Feminist+Banker) >
P(Linda is Smart+Feminist)
When the opposite is true.
This Bias is part of the Representativeness Heuristic
The Confirmation Trap Bias
Individuals look for test cases biased to confirm their hypothesis vs. disprove it.
i.e. 2-4-6 find the sequence
Trying other test cases of numbers with a difference of two b/c that’s where our mind went. Vs trying increasing numbers, which is the rule in this case: i.e. 4-17-23
This Bias is part of the Confirmation Heuristic
Anchoring Bias
Individuals make estimates for values based upon initial value (i.e. from past events)
i.e. People guessing the Taj-Mahal’s construction date based on the last 3 digits of their phone numbers. “Was it before or after the date made by your phone number?” The size of the number will predetermine a bias to the answer.
This Bias is part of the Confirmation Heuristic
Conjunctive and Disjunctive events Bias
Individuals exhibit a bias toward overestimating the probability of conjunctive events.
i.e. Overestimating the probability of taking a red ball out of a bag, with a replacement, and then drawing another red one.
This Bias is part of the Confirmation Heuristic
Hindsight and the curse of knowledge Bias
After an event, overestimating the degree to which they could have predicted the correct outcome. “I knew that was wrong”
i.e. Football fans with a game “I knew that was a bad play”
This Bias is part of the Confirmation Heuristic
Overconfidence Bias
The bias to be overconfident of the correctness of your judgement
This Bias is part of the Confirmation Heuristic
Fundamental Attribution Error
Individuals tend to overestimate to which the target is responsible for his/her actions. (We don’t give the benefit of the doubt)
i.e. Boss appears unresponsive, you’re likely to blame on a lack of interpersonal skill vs any pressure they’re facing
