Lesson 3 (simplified)

Question 1

Forecast

Answer 1

estimate of future level of something

Question 2

forecast used to determine

Answer 2

• long-term capacity needs
• yearly business plans
• shorter-term operations and activities

Question 3

forecast types

Answer 3

demand, supply, price

Question 4

laws of forecasting

Answer 4

1. almost always wrong (but still usefull)
2. more accurate for near term
3. more accurate for groups of products/services
4. no substitute for calcualted values

Question 5

forecasting methods

Answer 5

qualitative techniques
quantitative models

Question 6

Qualitative techniques

Answer 6

market surveys: questionnaires to potential customers
panel consensus forecasting: experts forecast together
delphi method: experts forecast individually
life-cycle analogy method: time frames and demand levels of different stages of new products/services
build-up forecasts: experts of market segements estimate demand within segements

Question 7

time series forecasting method

Answer 7

uses time series to develop forecasts

Question 8

demand patterns

Answer 8

randomness: unpredictable
trend: long-term movement up/down
seasonality: repeated pattern associated with certain times of year.

Question 9

last period model

Answer 9

demand of current period as forecast for next period

Question 10

moving average

Answer 10

taking average of recent demand

Question 11

weighted moving average

Answer 11

weights applied

Question 12

linear regression

Answer 12

forecast variable (y) as a linear function of independent variable (x)
y = a+bx

Question 13

causal forecasting methods

Answer 13

forecast if modelled as a function of something other than time

Question 14

Collaborative Planning, Forecasting, and Replenishment (CPFR)

Answer 14

supply chain partners agree to mutual business objectives, measures, develop joint sales and operational plans, and collaborate to generate and update sales forecasts and replenishment plans