Lecture 9 - Terrorist Tactis & Strategies Flashcards
What is the difference between strategy & tactic
Strategy = The art of creating power
Tactic(s) = action(s) to accomplish a strategy
What are the different forms of strategy?
- Strategies of Force = military strategy
- Strategy from Below = political strategy (emphasis on the underdog, revolutionary, & dispossessed)
- Strategy from Above = corporate strategy (cultural change & social theory
What are the 5 strategies of terrorism?
- Outbidding - Competition through violence
- Spoiling - Disrupting peace processes &/or negotiations; split moderates & radicals; build mistrust in government or negotiating partner
- Provocation - Elicit an agressive response from the target, make the government look bad in eyes of population
- Attrition - Persuade enemy about your strength; can outlast the enemy; can keep inflicting pain, damages & losses on enemy; can absor more pain than the enemy. Key element of why suiced terrorism is used against democracies (and can be succesful against democracies)
- Intimidation - Convince enemy not to do something; gain control over enemy or a population; convince population to support group
What is TTP?
Tactics, Techniques & Procedures (Modus Operandi)
- TTP = Patterns of terrorist & terrorist group behavior
- Think about what, where, when, & how of an attack
- These are deliberate decisions
- It’s about tools & tactics
What is the relation to Strategy and TTP
How can one measure terrorism?
*Global Terrorism Database
-Information on all terrorist attacks from 1970-2020
-Public data, anyone can use
-Define terrorism as “the threatened or actual use of illegal force and violence by a nonstate actor to attain a political, economic, religious, or social goal through fear, coercion, or intimidation
How do terrorist select there targets?
- Often thought of as a binary choice
o Civilian (56%)
o Government (44%) - But there’s a lot of heterogeneity (i.e., variation) in target selection
o Security/hardening
o Symbolism
o Communication/Messaging
o Recruitment
o Punishment
o Objective
Target selection is a cat and mouse game.
*Install metal detectors at airports -US was first (January 5, 1973)
-Worldwide soon after
*Put law enforcement/marshals on airplanes
Do CT measures stop Terrorism?
*Terrorism did not stop, TTP changed
-Airplane hijackings decreased
-Hostage taking continues, but changes to kidnapping
-See a shift from targeting airplane/airport to targeting government buildings, officials, embassies
*Hardened these government targets & terrorism did not stop, TTP changed -Attacks against soft targets increase -Civilians become less safe
What is Robert Pape’s literature on Suicide Terrorism about
- The Strategic Logic of Suicide Terrorism: This article argues that suicide terrorism is a rational strategy of coercion, not a result of irrational or fanatical behavior. It analyzes the universe of suicide terrorist attacks from 1980 to 2001 and finds patterns that support this claim.
- Suicide Terrorism as Punishment: The article shows that suicide terrorism relies on the threat of inflicting pain on the target society to compel a change in policy, especially the withdrawal of foreign forces from a disputed territory. It explains how suicide attackers increase their coercive leverage by demonstrating their willingness to die, their ability to inflict damage, and their violation of norms.
- The Record of Suicide Terrorism: The article presents data on the timing, goals, and targets of suicide terrorist campaigns and shows that they are consistent with the strategic logic of coercion. It also shows that suicide terrorism has been rising because terrorists have learned that it pays.
- The Limits of Suicide Terrorism: The article argues that although suicide terrorism can coerce moderate concessions, it is unlikely to achieve more ambitious goals and may backfire. It suggests that the best way to contain suicide terrorism is to reduce terrorists’ confidence in their ability to carry out such attack
What is Thomas (2021) on gender about?
- The main research question is whether female suicide terrorists are more lethal than male ones, and whether this effect depends on the gender norms of the society where the attack occurs.
- The main argument is that female suicide terrorists have an advantage in societies where women are expected to be pacifist, apolitical, and confined to the domestic sphere, as they can exploit gender stereotypes and lax security measures to access their targets more easily and cause more casualties.
- The main evidence is based on data on individual suicide attacks from 1985 to 2015, which shows that female attackers are more deadly than male ones in countries with more conservative gender norms, but not in more egalitarian ones. The author also examines whether counterterrorists adapt to the use of female suicide terrorists over time, and finds that female attack lethality declines with time.
- Gender norms and female labor force participation: The article discusses how patriarchal values and religious beliefs can limit women’s involvement in the formal economy, and how this affects their political participation and representation.
- Female labor force participation and female political participation: The article argues that working in the formal economy boosts women’s prospects for political mobilization, as it reduces negative stereotypes, encourages liberal beliefs, and provides skills and networks that can be useful for political organizations.
- Female political participation and female suicide terrorism: The article hypothesizes that female suicide terrorists are more lethal in societies where women’s political participation is low, as they are less likely to be suspected or scrutinized by security forces and civilians. The article tests this hypothesis using data on women’s civil society participation, women’s protest participation, and women’s labor force participation as indicators of gender norms and political opportunities.
