Lecture 8

Question 1

Interpretations of probability

Answer 1

-Subjective [Epistemic]

-Frequency [Objective]
-Propensity [Objective]

Question 2

Epistemic interpretation of probability meaning

Answer 2

focus on rational belief [Subjective]

Question 3

Objective interpretation of probability meaning

Answer 3

focus on features of the world [Frequency, Propensity]

Question 4

Dutch book argument

Answer 4

set of bets that ensures a guaranteed loss

Question 5

Propensity meaning

Answer 5

Causal disposition to create certain outcomes

Question 6

Causal disposition meaning

Answer 6

System’s tendency to behave in a certain way under certain circumstances

Question 7

Problem of single-case probabilities

Answer 7

In Frequentism we need infinite series of trials, that means in single-off events isn’t possible to give a probability.

Question 8

Problem of invertability

Answer 8

In Propensity Cause-effect relationship is not invertable. Drinking leads to hangover. Hangover does not lead to drinking