Lecture 11

Question 1

Information from regular association

Answer 1

1. Temporal succession - C regularly compes before E
2. Contiguity - C and E happen nearby in the space
3. Conditional dependence - P(E|C) != P(E)

Question 2

Regular association problems

Answer 2

1. Some variables are causally related but not in spatial or temporal contact [Lockdown in china causes gas prices go down in Saudi Arabia]
2. Causal relationships are asymmetric (C causes E but E does not cause C) [Saudi Arabian prices did not cause China’s lockdown]
3. Some variables are conditionally dependent/associated but not causally related [When ice cream sales are high, drowning also rises]

Question 3

Confounding variable meaning

Answer 3

an unmeasured third variable that influences both the supposed cause and the supposed effect

When Weather is good, ice cream sells rise and drowning as well

Question 4

Bridge principle meaning

Answer 4

assumption that connect observation to the actual causal structure

Question 5

The principle of common cause

Answer 5

Observations X and Y can be X causes Y, Y causes X, Z causes X and/or Y

Question 6

If Z is a common cause of X and Y, then X and Y are

Answer 6

Conditionally independent given Z

Question 7

Causal Markov Condition

Answer 7

all variables are independent of every other variable except direct effects