Lecture 8 Flashcards
Forest Land Use Change and Vulnerability Assessment
The parable of the frog in the pot
The boiling frog is a parable describing a frog being slowly boiled alive. The premise is that if a frog is put suddenly into boiling water, it will jump out, but if the frog is put in lukewarm water which is then brought to a boil slowly, it will not perceive the danger and will be cooked to death.
Land Cover
Indicates the physical land type such as forest or grassland
Indicates the physical land type such as forest or grassland
Land Cover
Land Use
Shows how people are utilizing/exploiting the land
Shows how people are utilizing/exploiting the land
Land Use
Land cover determines the ___ that exists on site while land use defines its ___.
HAZARD
VULNERABILITY
Hazard
source of risk that does not necessarily imply potential for occurrence
source of risk that does not necessarily imply potential for occurrence
Hazard
Vulnerability
the degree to which a system is susceptible to or unable to cope with adverse effects of natural or man made
the degree to which a system is susceptible to or unable to cope with adverse effects of natural or man made
Vulnerability
Hazard (Havazard vs Risk)
the potential to cause harm.
the potential to cause harm.
Hazard (Havazard vs Risk)
Hazard 2 (Havazard vs Risk)
threatening event, or the probability of occurrence of a potentially damaging phenomenon, within a given time period and area that may cause loss of life or injury, property damage, social and economic disruption or environmental degradation or a combination of these.
threatening event, or the probability of occurrence of a potentially damaging phenomenon, within a given time period and area that may cause loss of life or injury, property damage, social and economic disruption or environmental degradation or a combination of these.
Hazard 2 (Havazard vs Risk)
Hazard 3 (Havazard vs Risk)
A dangerous phenomenon, substance, human activity or condition that may cause loss of life, injury or other health impacts, property damage, loss of livelihood and services, social and economic disruption, or environmental damage. (PDRRM Act)
A dangerous phenomenon, substance, human activity or condition that may cause loss of life, injury or other health impacts, property damage, loss of livelihood and services, social and economic disruption, or environmental damage. (PDRRM Act)
Hazard 3 (Havazard vs Risk)
Risk
The probability of harmful consequences, or expected losses (deaths, injuries, property, livelihoods, economic activity disrupted or environment damaged) resulting from interactions between natural or human induced hazards and vulnerable conditions
The probability of harmful consequences, or expected losses (deaths, injuries, property, livelihoods, economic activity disrupted or environment damaged) resulting from interactions between natural or human induced hazards and vulnerable conditions
Risk
Risk 2
Conventionally risk is expressed by the notation
Risk = Hazards x Vulnerability
= Hazards x Vulnerability
Risk 2
Conventionally risk is expressed by the notation
Vulnerability Assessment
An approach in identifying and determining the degree to which a system is susceptible to or unable to cope with adverse effects of natural hazards such as soil erosion, flooding, landslides, pollution, forest/grass fires, etc. or manmade (anthropogenic) hazards.
An approach in identifying and determining the degree to which a system is susceptible to or unable to cope with adverse effects of natural hazards such as soil erosion, flooding, landslides, pollution, forest/grass fires, etc. or manmade (anthropogenic) hazards.
Vulnerability Assessment
Vulnerability Assessment (6)
GIS based assessment done to determine the area’s vulnerability to climate hazards.
The assessment is done by determining inherently sensitive areas due to topography and their exposure.
Vulnerability or hazard maps are prepared to show which areas in the watershed require immediate attention to minimize the adverse impacts of changing climate.
The assessment makes use of simulated hazard maps derived from overlay analyses associated with different variables based on the observed and projected climate scenarios.
The selection is founded on the understanding that the projected climatic changes in the area involve significant variations in the amount, and seasonal pattern of rainfall.
With shorter/ drier dry seasons and longer/ wetter wet seasons expected to become more prevalent, more frequent flood and drought events are expected to affect the local community’s activities.
Vulnerability
Degree to which a system is susceptible to, and unable to cope with adverse effects of climate change.
Degree to which a system is susceptible to, and unable to cope with adverse effects of climate change.
Vulnerability
Vulnerability 2
is a function of exposure to climate stresses, sensitivity and adaptive capacity
is a function of exposure to climate stresses, sensitivity and adaptive capacity
Vulnerability 2
Vulnerability is a function of: (3)
degree of EXPOSURE of the system to climatic hazards.
SENSITIVITY of a system to changes in climate (the degree to which a system will respond to a given change in climate, including beneficial and harmful effects)
ADAPTIVE CAPACITY (the degree to which adjustments in practices, processes, or structures can moderate or offset the potential for damage or take advantage of opportunities created by a given change in climate).
ADAPTIVE CAPACITY
the degree to which adjustments in practices, processes, or structures can moderate or offset the potential for damage or take advantage of opportunities created by a given change in climate
the degree to which adjustments in practices, processes, or structures can moderate or offset the potential for damage or take advantage of opportunities created by a given change in climate
ADAPTIVE CAPACITY
Exposure
the contact between a system, or system component, and a perturbation or stress.
the contact between a system, or system component, and a perturbation or stress.
Exposure
Exposure 2
Exposure is a function of both the magnitude and scope of the perturbation, and of the system with which it comes into contact (e.g., its location).
Exposure is a function of both the magnitude and scope of the perturbation, and of the system with which it comes into contact (e.g., its location).
Exposure 2
Sensitivity
Degree to which a system can be affected, negatively or positively, by changes in climate.
Degree to which a system can be affected, negatively or positively, by changes in climate.
Sensitivity
Adaptive Capacity
Ability to adjust to climate change to moderate damage, take advantage of opportunities or cope with consequences.
Ability to adjust to climate change to moderate damage, take advantage of opportunities or cope with consequences.
Adaptive Capacity
Adaptive Capacity 2
Function of the relative level of a society’s economic resources, access to technology, access to climate information, skills to make use of the information, institutions and equitable distribution of resources.
Function of the relative level of a society’s economic resources, access to technology, access to climate information, skills to make use of the information, institutions and equitable distribution of resources.
Adaptive Capacity 2
Vulnerability Assessment
Based on Global Climate Model (GCM):
CNCM3 Model
Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 Model
Vulnerability Assessment
Scenario
2 Scenarios (A1B and A2 Scenarios)
Vulnerability Assessment
Period:
Observed, 2020s and 2050s
