lecture 8

Question 1

Perceptions about regime survival (p)

Answer 1

Before the regime is challenged, p is perceived as high and regime insiders and citizens want to avoid the cost of opposition.
As soon as some begin to express opposition, however, others recalibrate their perception of p, leading more citizens to express opposition, and so on.

Question 2

The Effect of Crises on Regime Survival

Answer 2

• For regime insiders, economic shocks reduce the benefits of office to a partisan of the status quo in the status quo regime because wages fall
• reduce the probability of maintaining/acquiring office in the status quo regime because budget pressures reduce public employment

for regular citizens, the benefit of the status quo in the status quo regime is reduced, → opposition becomes more attractive

also, As more and more show open opposition, the perception of p declines encouraging even more opposition

Question 3

The Effect of Personalisation on Regime Survival

Answer 3

Military dictatorship + Low personalism → Frequent coups and dispersed weapons decrease regime survival.
Military dictatorship + High personalism → Reduced risk of coups and concentration increase regime survival.
Party-based dictatorship + Low personalism → Norms of succession should increase regime survival.
Party-based dictatorship + High personalism → Hollowing out of norms should decrease regime survival.

Question 4

Likelihood of Democratisation

Answer 4

Negotiate → Democratize

Refuse to Negotiate → Violent Removal → Unlikely to Democratize

Question 5

Likelihood of Democratisation for dictator

Answer 5

Costs of losing power are very high (e.g. exile, prison, execution).
Unlikely to negotiate and rather cling to power until removed by force.

Question 6

Likelihood of Democratisation for military dictatorships

Answer 6

Military officers: Low costs if country democratizes, high cost if violent overthrow of regime.
Prefer to negotiate if p decreases.

Dictator: Faces higher risk, prefers to cling to power.
With more power sharing interests of officers will prevail → democratize
With more power concentration interest of dictator → unlikely to democratize

Question 7

Likelihood of Democratisation for party-led dictatorships

Answer 7

Party officials: Low costs if country democratizes, high cost if new autocratic regime. Prefer to negotiate if p decreases.

Dictator: Faces higher risk, prefers to cling to power.
But harder than for military to remove dictator to negotiate → unlikely to democratize.

With more power concentration, higher dependence on dictator → unlikely to democratize

Question 8

most authoritarian regimes end:

Answer 8

as they started

Question 9

Whether personalism turns to democratisation depends on

Answer 9

military intervention

Question 10

factors when deciding whether to challenge the regime

Answer 10

available support and resources, chances of success
risk and potential cost of failure.

Question 11

why is there a decline in coups

Answer 11

more autocracies began to allow semicompetitive elections
they entail risks (about half of them fail)

Question 12

patron–client networks

Answer 12

• developed in party-led dictatorships
• help to continue distributing to those
  most essential for their survival while shifting the burden of the crisis to politically weaker parts of the
  population.

Question 13

A dictator’s natural death in office

Answer 13

an exogenous challenge to the regime (i.e. unaffected by its type).