Lecture 6

Question 1

Prediction

Answer 1

a judgment made about an outcome before the outcome knowledge is known

Question 2

Profiling

Answer 2

creating or writing an outline or article that describes a person

Question 3

Clinical Intuition

Answer 3

“people with experience and expertise in the domain make intuitive prediction for individual cases” (Kim, 2017, p.105)

Question 4

Statistical Prediction

Answer 4

“prediction about a particular case are made solely on the basis of empirical evidence and/or statistical comparison to data drawn from a large sample” (Kim, 2017, p105)

Question 5

Blind Empiricism

Answer 5

states conditions when question is useful:

• a question is useful if people’s responses to a question can predict behaviours or disorders
• as long as question can make accurate predictions, question is useful even if not based on reason or on theory

Question 6

Grove et al (200) Which is more accurate: intuition or prediction?

Answer 6

“mechanical predictions of human behaviour are equal or superior to clinical predictions (intuition) methods for a wide range of circumstances.”

Question 7

Meta-analysis

Answer 7

an analysis of several analyses that answers a specific question

Question 8

Why is clinical intuition inferior to mechanical prediction?

Answer 8

• ignores base rates and prior probabilities
• overreliance on the representativeness heuristic
• overreliance on the availability heuristic
• assign non optimal weights to cues

Question 9

Effects of Expertise

Does expertise have any effect on validity of judgements?

Answer 9

There is no evidence that expertise has an effect on validity of judgements

Question 10

Predictor

Answer 10

• information that people use as a signal to lead them to a decision
• the outcome of the decision is not known

Question 11

Validity

Answer 11

• information that is correlated with the accuracy of a judgement or decision
• using a valid predictor to make a decision is more likely to lead you to a correct decision than using an invalid predictor

Question 12

Einhorn & Hogarth (1978)

What kind of feedback is useful?

Answer 12

• corrective feedback on validity of predictors
• direct attention away from invalid preditors
• direct attention toward valid predictors

Question 13

Stewart, Roebber, and Bogart (1997)

How accurate are predictions of weather forecaster compared to computational or statistical predictions?

Answer 13

Weather forecasters are at least just as accurate as statistical models

Question 14

why are weather forecasters more accurate than clinicians at making predictions?

Answer 14

• consistent and immediate feedback about predictors
• practice effects
• easy-access to base-rate information

Question 15

why are weather forecasters more accurate at predictions than clinical psychologists?

Answer 15

task characteristics
- consistent and immediate feedback about predictors
- task predictability based on predictors
- high and precise quality of predictors
- model that provides accurate forecasts