Lecture 5 Flashcards

1
Q

Hindsight vs. Foresight

A

Hindsight
- event has happened
- outcome is known

Judgements based on hindsight also known as postdictive judgements

Foresight
- event has not happened
- outcome is not known

Judgement based on foresight also known as predictive judgements

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2
Q

Hindsight Bias

A
  • current bias toward previous probability and statistical judgements about past events
  • bias based on knowledge of actual outcomes

*a judgement was made prior to the event

*several types of statistical judgments could be requested. The most common judgment requested is current memory of previous probability judgments

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3
Q

Creeping Determinism

A

“the relative view that an event is inevitable”

another word for hindsight

relative, because creeping slowing toward absolute value rather than the absolute value itself

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4
Q

Determinism vs. Creeping Determinism

A

Determinism
- perceived inevitability of outcome is absolute
- recall of past prediction that outcome will occur in terms of a probability = 1

Creeping determinism
- perceived inevitability of outcome is relative
- recall of past prediction that outcome will occur in terms of a probability: NOT 1.0

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5
Q

Support (and prediction) for hindsight BIAS (aka Creeping Determinism)

A

Judgments in Hindsight
- provide higher likelihood for actual outcome

  • lower likelihood for alternative outcomes
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6
Q

Memory Paradigm

A
  • estimate probability of possible outcomes for a future event
  • event occurs
  • recall the probability that was estimated for each possible outcome
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7
Q

Results

A
  • For possible outcomes that occurred, recalled probabilities were higher than original assigned probabilities
  • For outcomes that that did not occur, recalled probabilities were lower than originally assigned probabilities
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8
Q

Fischoff & Blyth (1975)
Is there evidence for hindsight bias (aka creeping determinism)

A
  • there is evidence for hindsight bias
  • recalled probabilities were biased or “creeping” toward the probability of the actual outcome
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9
Q

Selective Activation, Reconstruction and Anchoring

A
  • Selective activation of relevant information
  • outcome for the original prediction is also activated
  • reconstruction of original prediction process using activated information
  • “anchored” toward probability of the known outcome
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10
Q

Probability Cue

A

A cue that might use based on how likely the cue will lead to a correct or optimal decision

“pieces of information that correlate with the judgment people are trying to make.” (Kim, 2017, p71)

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11
Q

Cue Value

A

the value associated with each item being compared based on the criteria set by the probability cue

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12
Q

Take-the-Best

A
  • a prescriptive strategy
  • search for the probability cue that can differentiate between the two items that are compared
  • start search based on how likely the cue can lead to correct decision
  • probability cue is found, choose the item with the higher cue value
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13
Q

Reconstruction After Feedback with Take the Best (RAFT)

A
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