Lecture 5 Flashcards
Hindsight vs. Foresight
Hindsight
- event has happened
- outcome is known
Judgements based on hindsight also known as postdictive judgements
Foresight
- event has not happened
- outcome is not known
Judgement based on foresight also known as predictive judgements
Hindsight Bias
- current bias toward previous probability and statistical judgements about past events
- bias based on knowledge of actual outcomes
*a judgement was made prior to the event
*several types of statistical judgments could be requested. The most common judgment requested is current memory of previous probability judgments
Creeping Determinism
“the relative view that an event is inevitable”
another word for hindsight
relative, because creeping slowing toward absolute value rather than the absolute value itself
Determinism vs. Creeping Determinism
Determinism
- perceived inevitability of outcome is absolute
- recall of past prediction that outcome will occur in terms of a probability = 1
Creeping determinism
- perceived inevitability of outcome is relative
- recall of past prediction that outcome will occur in terms of a probability: NOT 1.0
Support (and prediction) for hindsight BIAS (aka Creeping Determinism)
Judgments in Hindsight
- provide higher likelihood for actual outcome
- lower likelihood for alternative outcomes
Memory Paradigm
- estimate probability of possible outcomes for a future event
- event occurs
- recall the probability that was estimated for each possible outcome
Results
- For possible outcomes that occurred, recalled probabilities were higher than original assigned probabilities
- For outcomes that that did not occur, recalled probabilities were lower than originally assigned probabilities
Fischoff & Blyth (1975)
Is there evidence for hindsight bias (aka creeping determinism)
- there is evidence for hindsight bias
- recalled probabilities were biased or “creeping” toward the probability of the actual outcome
Selective Activation, Reconstruction and Anchoring
- Selective activation of relevant information
- outcome for the original prediction is also activated
- reconstruction of original prediction process using activated information
- “anchored” toward probability of the known outcome
Probability Cue
A cue that might use based on how likely the cue will lead to a correct or optimal decision
“pieces of information that correlate with the judgment people are trying to make.” (Kim, 2017, p71)
Cue Value
the value associated with each item being compared based on the criteria set by the probability cue
Take-the-Best
- a prescriptive strategy
- search for the probability cue that can differentiate between the two items that are compared
- start search based on how likely the cue can lead to correct decision
- probability cue is found, choose the item with the higher cue value
Reconstruction After Feedback with Take the Best (RAFT)