Lecture 34-35 Flashcards
World energy consumption
Coal dropped from 39% to 27% by 2020
Oil dropped from 40% to 31%
Natural gas increased from 15% to 25%
Renewables increased to 5% in 2020
Canada’s energy consumption 1965-2015
Tripled overall energy consumption since 1965
Rate of increase in energy use slowing - efficiency + transfer of heavy industry to other countries
Fossil fuel use declining
Not nearly steep enough to reach net carbon zero by 2060
What are the predicted energy consumption by 2050?
Nearly 50% increase in world energy usage, led by growth in Asia
With rapid growth of electricity generation, renewables-including solar, wind, and hydroelectric power-are the fastest growing energy source between 2018 and 2050
Global natural gas consumption increases more than 40% between 2018 and 2050
What is the Paris agreement?
Goal to reduce emissions
How do we decarbonize?
Join effort of reducing emissions as well as removing CO2 from the air (increasing biosphere and human carbon sinks)
Stabilization triangle
increasing linear curve (current path = ramp)
flat path (interim goal)
The section in between the current path and the flat path (triangle) is divided into 8 wedges
What is a wedge in a stabilization triangle?
A wedge is a strategy to reduce carbon emissions that grow in 50 years from zero to 1.0 GtC/year. The strategy has alreawdy been commercialized at scale somewhere
Cumulatevely, a wedge redirects the flow of 25 GtC in its first 50 years. In other words, we do not need to go from 0 to 100, but rather starting now, go on for 50 years to flatline carbon outputs
What are the 4 categories of wedges?
1) Efficiency and conservation
2) Fossil-fuel based strategies
3) Nuclear energy
4) Renewables and biostorage
What are the wedges in the category efficiency and conservation?
increased transport efficiency
reducing miles traveled
increased building efficiency
increased efficiency of electricity production
What are the wedges in the category fossil-fuel based strategies?
fule switching (coal to gas)
fossil-based electricity with carbon capture and storage (CCS)
coal synfuels with CCS
fossil-based hydrogen fuel with CCS
What is the wedge in the category in nuclear energy?
nuclear electricity
What are the wedges in the category in renewables and biostorage?
wind-generated electricity
solar electricity
wind-generated hydorgen fuel
biofuels
forest storage
soil storage
Transport efficiency
a wedge of emissions savings would be achieved if the fuel efficiency of all the cars were doubled from 30 mpg to 60 mpg
hybrid and diesel engines, making vehicles out of stronger and lighter material
transport conservation
a wedge of emissions savings would be achieved if the number of miles traveled by the world’s cars were cut in half
urban planning leading to more use of mass transit and if electronic communication becomes a good subsitute for face-to-face meetings
encourage urban planning to encourage public transportation
building efficiency
a wedge of emissions savings would be achieved if emissions in all new and existing residential and commercial buildings was cut by 25%
largest potential savings in building sector = heating and cooling, water heating, lighting, appliances
carbon savings from end-use efficiency strategies (wall and roof insulation), renewable energy strategies (solar water heating, passive solar design)
adopting more strategies will reduce its cost
efficiency in electricity production
a wedge of emissions savings would be achieved if we produced the world’s current coal-based electricity with doubled efficiency
coal-bruning power plants produce 25% world’s carbon emissions
efficiency from better turbines, using high-temperature fuel cells, combining fuel cells and turbines
What is the most economical way to store carbon?
store undergrond
if CO2 emissions from fossil fuels can be captured and stored, reduce harmful climate consequences of continuning to burn fossil fuels
CCS electricity
a wedge of emissions savings would be achieved by applying CCS to 800 large (1 billion watt) baseload coal power plants or 1600 large baseload natural gas power plants in 50 years
injecting a volume of CO2 every year equal to the volume of oil extracted
possibility of CO2 leakage
CCS hydrogen
desirable fuel because when burned, emits water vapour
produced mainly in ammonia fertilizer production and petroleum refining
currently, generate 100 million tons of capturable carbon
however, distributing CCS hydrogen requires building infrastructure
CCS synfuels
a wedge of emissions savings would be achieved if you could capture the CO2 emissions from 180 coal-to-synfuel facilities
when coal is heated and combined with steam and air or O2, CO and H2 are released and can be processed to make a liquid fuel called synfuel
release twice the carbon emissions of petroleum-derived fuels
largest synfuel facility is largest point source of atmospheric CO2
fuel switching for electricity
a wedge of emissions savings would be achieved if 1400 large natural gas plants displaced similar coal-electric plants
because of lower carbon content of natural gas and higher efficiencies of natural gas plants –> 50% emissions of coal
4x global production of electricity from natural gas in 2000
Nuclear electricity
a wedge of emissions savings would be achieved if the world’s current nuclear capacity by nuclear electric plants was tripled
currently provides 10% (down from 17%) world’s electricity, no CO2, world’s second largest source of low-carbon power
weapons, proliferation, nuclear waste, local opposition
Wind electricity
a wedge of emissions savings would be achieved if current wind capacity scaled up by a factor of 10
currently produces 2% of total global electricity
NIMBYs
solar electricity
a wedge of emissions savings would be achieved if you installed solar arrays with an area of two million hectares, or 20,000km^2
Convert sunlight to electricity, CO2 free and renewable
Lower land demand than other renewables
Wind hydrogen
a wedge of emissions savings would be achieved if you added another 1 million windmills
To produce hydrogen with wind energy, electricity generated by turbines used in electrolysis, liberates hydrogen from water
Wind hydrogen displacing vehicle fuel is 50% efficient at reducing carbon emissions as wind electricity displacing coal electricity
Could be small scale, less investment in infrastructure
Biofuels
a wedge of emissions savings would be achieved if today’s global ethanol production increased by 12x, and was sustainable
wedge would require 1/6 of world’s cropland and an area the size of India
Biogengineering: increase efficiency of PS and use of crop residues –> reduce land demand
Ethanol production in US and Brazil: 20 billion gallons of biofuel from corn and sugarcane
biodiversity threats and competing land use
Forest storage
a wedge of emissions savings would be achieved if global deforestation was stopped
current global deforesation adds 1-2 billion tons of cabon to atmosphere
natural sinks
requires reduction in deforestation + planting new trees
Soil storage
a wedge of emissions savings would be achieved by applying carbon management strategies to all the world’s existing agricultural soils
natural vegetation –> cropland reduces soil carbon by 50%
reverse carbon loss through agricultural practices that build up carbon in soil (reduce period bare fallow, plant cover crops, reduce aeration)
What is an institution?
any structure or mechanism of social order and cooperation governing the behaviour of a set of individuals within a given human community
an organization formed for a specific purpose
a set of rules and structures that allow people to organize for collective action
institutions are often used to organize a response at a national or at an international level
Explain the story of ozone depletion
Mid20th c: new classes of inert and harmless chemicals, chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and halons, start to be used in diffirent ways
- CFCs used in aerosol cans, cooling systems, foam making
- halons containing F, Cl, Br; used in fire extinguisher systems, dry cleaning, etc.
However, when exposed to UV radiation in the stratosphere, halons break down and release Cl, BrO, NO, etc. that then destroy stratospheric ozone. In particular, in Antarctic spring, it leads to the formation of a ozone hole that gets worse every year.
Mid70s: CFCs observed in stratosphere; first hypothesis of possible ozone desruction by CFCs
Early 80s: ozone depletion observed
- Vienna convention: information sharing
- 1987: Montreal protocol: freeze CFC production at 1986 levels; reduce by 50% by 1998
Late 1980s: thanks to incentives, HCFC subsitutes devleoped
1990s: protocol gradually strengthened thanks to new tools (tech. transfer, special permits)
2010: no more CFC produced (still have emissions from old appliances)
2020: no HCFC in developed countries
2030: no NCFC in developing countries
What is the result of the CFC ban?
the growth of the ozone hole has now stopped
because of the residence time of CFCs and ClO in the stratosphere, the ozone hole will take several decades to disappear
What have we learned from the CFC-ozone experience?
global conventions are possible (many tools in the future to facilitate transitions were developed during this crisis)
they can be effective, at least under conditions represented by the CFC-ozone issue
US Clean Air Act
Amended 1970, 1990
The Clean Air Act required the implementation of pollution limits at levels that protect the public health and provide an adequate margin of safety.
Limits on sulfar oxides, particulate matter, carbon monoxide, photochemical oxidants, nitrogen oxides and hydrocarbons
What are follow ups from the US Clean Air Act?
There have been challenges periodically:
Lesson learned: policy-making can have a strong political aspect; policies can be changed for better or for worse. Concerned citizens need to be aware, active and vocal
Institutional response to climate change
Framework convention on climate change
- international framework for discussing climate change was developed at the Rio Summit in 1992
- Signed by 166 states (known as “the parties”)
International meetings: conference of the parties (COP)
COP3
Kyoto, Japan
Proposed to Kyoto protocol: binding agreement for developed nations to reduce GHG emission from 5-7% below 1990 levels in the 2008-2012 period.
Developed nations did not meet their targets
Paris Agreement 2015
197 countries, 193 ratified so far
Aim: to limit warming to <2 degrees C
Went into effect on 4 Nov. 2016
Bottom-up process: contrary to most top-down international regulatory frameworks
- Nationally determined contributions
- Not binding: collective political pressure rather than legal enforcement
All nations expected to contribute, including developing
International transfer of mitigation outcomes (ITMOs) permitted
Discussions of financial support for adaptation and clean development
Involvement of cities as well as nations
What was Canada’s Paris Agreement commitment
80% below 2005 by 2050
energy
What have we learned from the experience of trying to regulate climate change?
Challenged of regulating highly diffuse emissions closely tied to the economy
- The socio-economic commitment to CFCs was far less than that to fossil fuels
Difficult to get agreement in a complex system with legitimate but large uncertainty about outcomes; less difficult as outcomes become more certain
- Knowledge has increased dramatically, uncertainty has decreased, and means to act or alternatives hav gradually improved
- Growing evidence that decarbonization is possible
- Increased market penetration of renewable energy technologies
- Increased awareness
What are the factors that influence action or environmental issues?
how well established is the nature of the problem? how well understood are the causes and effects?
what are the likely impacts and their severity
how distant in time and space are the impacts
are there available solutions, if not how quickly can they be developed
who, or how many, must be involved in the solutions
what are the economic implications of inaction and of action
how immediate are the benefits of a response
what is less complex: mitigation or adaptation
Compare the Kyoto agreement to the Paris agreement?
Kyoto was largely about command and control, but lacked enforcement authority
- Required authority to be assumed by nations, did not deliver
- Experiments with binding targets have been less successful
Paris’ approach adopted collective motivation and flexibility in policy
- global moral persuasion, national freedom to adopt rules
- so far seems to be working
- rely on peer pressure/ aspirational goals to motivate
Emerging sub-national response
