Lecture 3 Flashcards
Which system of the dual systems theory is heuristics related to? And explain
Heuristics are related to System 1 thinking, because System 1 is a quick operating system and in order to be quick this means that you have to take some shortcuts.
True or false: we don’t take many mental shortcuts
False.
We take a lot of mental shortcuts.
- Some we use to decide about the world (e.g., cheerleader effect; clustering illusion).
- Some we use to decide for ourselves (e.g., Ikea effect; planning fallacy).
o We typically overestimate ourselves and underestimate others
What do we need to make a fully informed and rational decision or judgement?
- Identify all relevant information
- Recall and store this information
- Assess weights of all information
- Consider all information on alternative options
- Select the right option
= Weighted additive rule
Small (risk) versus large (uncertainty) world
It is not always possible to the use the weighted additive rule.
The small world is the ideal situation that only consists of risks. You know all the information, therefore you only make known risks; you know the outcome beforehand. This is a small world decision.
In reality, some part of your decision or information that you need for this decision is uncertain or unknown to you. This is called a large world decision.
How do you make decisions according to heuristics?
Weighted additive rule takes effort! Heuristics reduces this effort, so usually you:
- Examine less information
- Make recall and storage easier
- Simplify weighting of all information
- Consider less information on alternatives
- Select from fewer options
This is the reverse of the weighted additive rule.
What do the weighted additive rule and heuristics have in common?
Both are decision rules, you can describe them and they can be compared.
Attribute substitution
Happens a lot in heuristics.
People substitute a complex problem with a more simple problem, without being aware.
According to Kahneman, this results in an effort-accuracy trade-off.
Effort-accuracy trade-off
Selecting the best decision strategy given the amount of effort available, at the cost of accuracy.
When you replace a difficult decision with a simpler decision, you lose information. So it takes less effort, but it comes with the cost of accuracy.
Is it always bad to use mental shortcuts?
No, sometimes less is more.
Ecological rationality
An alternative to effort-accuracy trade-off view.
Selecting the best decision strategy given the environment. Being as rational as your environment needs you to be.
(related to bounded rationality)
What kind of heuristics are the following?:
- Representativeness
- Availability
- Anchoring
- Cognitive consistency
- Status quo
- Affect
- Loss aversion
Cognitive heuristics
What kind of heuristics are the following?
- Scarcity
- Group identification
- Social norms
- Authority
- False consensus
Social heuristics
Affect heuristic
Every stimulus causes an affective evaluation, this evaluation is not always conscious.
Affective valence is a natural evaluation and therefore susceptible to substitution.
Affect plays a major role in intuitive evaluation.
If the information is negative, you perceive something to be negative, while if given positive information on the same subject you would think positive abou tit.
What kind of heuristic is in play when somebody tries to answer the following question?
In Peter’s class, 20% of pupils play chess, 80% play soccer. Peter wears glasses and likes to read books. How likely do you think Peter is one of the chess players?
The representativeness heuristic.
If you reverse it: (…) 80% of pupils play chess, 20% play soccer (…). This gives a greater likelihood that Peter is a chess player, but irrespective of the percentages that you give, people give the same answer. They base their answer on stereotypes.
Representative heuristic
Using stereotypes and prototypes rather than using the actual probabilities of events happening or chances.
- Neglect of base rates, probabilities, distributions, etc. => stereo/prototypes instead
- ‘Global = local’
o Overall, around 50% of babies born are boys
o People told us that, therefore, since 3 of our friends had a girl, ours would be a boy.
o This is wrong
What kind of heuristic is in play when somebody tries to answer the following question?
Which city has more inhabitants: San Diego or San Jose?
The availability heuristic.
- American students: 2/3 correct
- German students: 100% correct
Why? American students know the name of San Diego but not of San Jose. They base their answer on what city name they know.
Availability heuristic
People believe an event will be more likely to occur if they can conjure up examples or memories of it. They ignore the actual probability of something happening.
Frequency/probability is judged by the ease with which people can think of instances (so, also neglect of base rates).
What makes something more salient/easily retrievable?
- Recent
- Familiar
- Personal
- Important
What kind of heuristic is in play when somebody tries to answer the following question?
Travel insurance
A. How much would you pay for an insurance that returns 100.00 dollars if you die abroad.
B. How much would you pay for an insurance that returns 100.000 if you die in a terrorist incident abroad.
Availability heuristic.
People were willing to pay more for option B!
Option B is a specific incident, but people choose this option because you can imagine a terrorist incidents much better than dying abroad without a clear idea of how you die.
What kind of heuristic is in play when somebody tries to answer the following question?
How much is:
8 x 7 x 6 x 5 x 4 x 3 x 2 x 1
1 x 2 x 3 x 4 x 5 x 6 x 7 x 8
Anchoring.
8 x 7 x 6 x 5 x 4 x 3 x 2 x 1
= 2250 (average response)
1 x 2 x 3 x 4 x 5 x 6 x 7 x 8
= 512 (average response)
The correct answer for both = 40320
What kind of heuristic is in play when somebody tries to answer the following question?
What is the distance between NY and SF? Is it more or less than 1500/6000 miles? How much is it?
Anchoring.
Mean: 2600 when 1500 is first and 6000 second
Mean: 4000 when you reverse 1500 and 6000
Anchoring
Anchor and adjust, until a plausible answer is reached.
Anchor “sets the tone”.
Uses
- frames
- starting points
- defaults.
Framing vs anchoring
Framing is a more broader term, anchoring is a form of framing. Framing is how you word or present a choice option in a channel. Anchoring is swapping flavours of framing options.
What kind of heuristic is the following:
Fast food places give menu options instead of separate products as a default.
Anchoring
What kind of heuristic is in play in the following example?
A participant goes into a full waiting room, after some time a buzzer goes off and everyone stands up from their seats and then sits down again. After a few buzzers the participant joins in. People are getting called in one by one, al the while the buzzers keeps buzzing from time to time and people stand up every time. At one point, only the participant remains in the waiting room, when the buzzer goes off she stands up, even though the group whose behaviour she followed is no longer there.
Social proof
