Lecture 3 Flashcards
Diffusion
An innovation is spreading around the market.
S-curve (of technology performance)
The S-curve of technology shows how technology improves:
* Slow start: Testing and fixing problems.
* Fast growth: Quick progress and adoption.
* Slowing down: Harder to make big improvements.
It explains why early progress is easier, but later upgrades need more effort.
Moore’s law
Moore’s Law states that computer chips become more powerful every two years because the number of tiny components (transistors) on a chip doubles. This makes computers faster and cheaper, but it’s getting harder and more expensive to maintain this growth (takes more effort each year).
Discontinuous s-curves
Discontinuous S-curves describe the phenomenon where the growth or improvement of one technology slows down or stops and is replaced by a completely new technology or innovation. This leads to a shift from one S-curve to another.
phases of s-curve
- Ferment: Experimentation with no clear winner yet.
- Take Off/dominant design: One technology becomes the standard, and the market grows rapidly.
- Maturity: The technology is well-established, with incremental improvements.
- Discontinuity: New technology replaces the old, starting a new cycle.
Roger’s diffusion of innovation - definition difusion
Diffusion is the process by which an innovation is communicated trough certain channels over time among members of a social system.
- communication (how the innovation is communicated through different adaption groups)
- time ( adoptation takes time)
- social system (where it diffuses through, innovation has to fit with social system)
Roger’s diffusion of innovation - phases
- innovators = Avontuurlijk en risicovol, adopteren nieuwe ideeën als eerste.
- early adopters = Invloedrijke opinieleiders, adopteren snel en helpen vertrouwen op te bouwen bij anderen.
- early majority = Voorzichtig en praktisch, adopteren pas als de innovatie bewezen is.
- late majority = Skeptisch, adopteren uit noodzaak of sociale druk (als innovatie al wijdverspreid is)
- laggards = Traditioneel en traag, adopteren alleen als ze geen andere keuze hebben.
adoption
the decision of an individual to use the innovation
characteristics that determine if individual will use the innovation (adoption)
- relative advantage (over other/previous products)
- compatibility (fit with existing technologies and needs)
- complexibility (not to complex)
- trialability (you need to have the opportunity to try it before adopting it)
- observability (seeing others using it)
It depends of the group (early adopteers, etc.) which of these are more or less important.
5 steps individual adoption of innovation
- knowledge (learning about the innovation and knowing what it is)
- persuasion (forming negative or positive opinion)
- decision (try it or not)
- implementation (start using it)
- confirmation ( continuing to use it or stop it)
critical mass
The point where enough people start using an innovation, so it spreads on its own (usually with early majority)
if you don’t reach the critical mass, the innovation will not be succesful and there will not be complete adoption
chasm
There is often a gap between early adopters (who are interested in technology and performance) and the critical mass (who are more interested in solutions and convenience).
Gartner’s hype cycle
addition to the diffusion of innovation by adding the crititcal mass and helps to set realistic expectations about the adoption
- innovation trigger (introduction)
- peak of inflated expectations (excitement at its highest)
- trough of dillusionment (interest declines as people realize limitations)
- slope of enlightenment (see its potential and more realistic expectations)
- plateau of productivity (innovation becomes widely accepted (it can also become obsolete before reaching this stage))
