lecture 2 Flashcards
what is long wave theory
evidence of regular economic cycles of growth and decline
long waves are 50-60 years
referred to as Kondratieffs
what is the first wave
1770-1830
iron smelting, steam power, mechanisation of cotton industry
what is second wave
1830-1890
generalisation of steam power, railways, steel
what is third wave
1890-1940
electric power, chemicals, internal combustion engine
what is fourth wave
1930-1990
electrics, synthetic materials, oil, petrol, chemicals, pharmaceuticals
in which wave did fordism appear
fourth wave, production lines diffused through industries post WW2, mass production and consumption
what is fifth wave
1980-onwards
key technologies, internet, microelectronics and IT
what is sixth wave
2030 onwards
AI, robotics, biotechnology and nanotechnology
key conditions of waves
interrelations between technologies
pervasiveness
declining cost curve/increasing quality
user friendly and publicly acceptable
causality of long wave theory
technology driven (tech advances cause higher growth) or technology stimulating (decline in economic growth causes search for innovation) or driven by large corporations
timing of long wave theory
Mencsh: clustering in depression, a search for innovation
Freeman and Perez: wider societal conditions
economy wider repercussions of long wave theory
some technologies remain relevant in subsequent waves
steam engines lose importance after 1st and 2nd wave
repetitive patterns or historical accidents
limits to technology
rate of innovation is falling
last 50 years haven’t seen significant innovations
today it’s new ways of doing things, sustainable energy, not ‘new’ things
what is punctuated equilibrium
technological discontinuities or ‘breakthroughs’ occur time to time
what does equilibrium trigger
fluid phases
