Lecture 17: Knowledge III Flashcards
How does human reasoning violate normative models
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Framing effect
Heuristic; how you frame a question influences answer.
exp: word question in # of ppl saved vs. # of deaths
loss aversion
The human tendency to strongly prefer avoiding a loss to receiving a gain. This particular cognitive bias consistently explains why so many of us make the same irrational decisions over and over.
exp: Capuchim monkeys are shown by two different experimenters (blue and green) chips. Blue shows one chip and 50/50 either gives the monkey 1 or 2 chips. The green experimenter shows 2 chips and 50/50 chance gives the monkey 1 or 2 chips. Monkeys eventually dont like the green because they are shown 2 and only get one. feel of loss.
Base rate neglect
A base rate fallacy is committed when a person judges that an outcome will occur without considering prior knowledge of the probability that it will occur. They focus on other information that isn’t relevant instead. Imagine that I show you a bag of 250 M&Ms with equal numbers of 5 different colors. Then, I ask you what the probability is I will pick a green one while my eyes are closed? I also tell you that green M&Ms are my favorite and yesterday I picked out twice as many green M&Ms than red ones. If you ignored the fact that there are 50 of each color, and instead focused on the fact that I picked out twice as many green M&Ms than red yesterday, you have comited a base rate fallacy because what I did yesterday is irrelevant information.
Availability heuristics
Availability is an excellent cue for frequency but it can sometimes go wrong for example ppl dying form food poising vs. killed by sharks. Media overs shark attack even though it happens way less than food poisoning deaths.
Confirmation bias
the tendency to interpret new evidence as confirmation of one’s existing beliefs or theories.
Wason selection task: standard version (how do people perform)
Standard version: if a card has an E on one side it must have a 4 on the other; most ppl will choose E and 4 from E,K,4,7; should choose E and 7
Wason selection task: beer/21 version (how do people perform)
Real world version: if a customer drinks an alcoholic beer he/she must be 21; most ppl chose person with beer and who is 17 from beer, 22, coke, and 17 -> correct
Factors that affect performance in various versions of the Wason selection task
Ppl are better at real-world examples because beer problems triggers our cheater detector.
Cheater detection
The problem with cheaters is that animals reap the benefits without paying the costs so the cheater gene will then be passed on; this can be prevented if animals punish cheaters (that way reciprocal altruism can evolve) —-> requires a lot of metal apparatus: recognizing cheaters, remembering those individuals, motivation to punish
Definition f a “cheater” varies depending on th observer’s social perspective.
prisoner’s dilemma
A situation in which two prisoners must decide whether to collaborate with each other or not.
Exp: Both keep silent= 6 months each. ypu squeal, other silent= you free. other 20 yrs. you silent, other squeal= you 20 yrs, other free. Both squeal= 15 yrs each.
regardless of hat your opponent does, it pays to defect; but if both defect, both are worse off than if both cooperate.
Ultimatum game
A game in which a proposer is given a sum of money and makes an offer to a responder as to how this money should be split between them. The responder must choose to accept or reject the offer.If responder rejects, no one gets anything. Therefore proposer is afraid of losing money so will offer a more fair split.
HOWEVER, a rational responder will accept pretty much anything because something is better than nothing so it is more advantageous for proposer to offer $1
BUT people are not purely rational –> they won’t accept unfair distributions, they’ll reject them just out of spite, therefore proposer has to offer more
rational person is easily exploited, responses to provocations and assault will always be measured and appropriate, a person who is not perfectly rational has an advantage.
