LECTURE 12 Flashcards
Mapping species threatened by climate change
Physical habitat space & suitable climate (population no longer viable)
Can include species already declining due to habitat loss
Can also include species that were healthy before climate change
Map = risk of extinction (interaction of land use & climate change)
- Land use transformation trends
- Current distribution Red Line spp.
- Expected distribution of additional species threatened by land use changes in 2020
- Expected distribution of additional species threatened by land use and climate change by 2020
Managing Threatened Species
Name two means of managing threatened species.
Removing other stressors
In situ management
Managing Threatened Species
Name two means of managing threatened species.
Removing other stressors
Removing other stressors
- Move / reduce existing stressors to allow populations to recover (e.g. fires, human overpopulation)
- Special focus on resistant / resilient areas
Managing Threatened Species
Name two means of managing threatened species.
In situ management
In situ management
- Done when removing stressors is insufficient
Ex) phenological mismatches
- Use natural selection to improve fitness of population
- Artificially manipulate population to maintain secure core, allow other populations to vary in response to selection
- Once evolving population large enough, discontinue manipulation
When is assisted migration done?
Assisted Migration
- Done when all other in situ options are exhausted
Ex) extreme range shifts, poor dispersers
Translocation of populations into new areas of suitable habitat
Difficulty – determining when appropriate to do (e.g. dangers of creating invasives)
When is species rescue done?
Species rescue
- Done as a very last resort
Ex) Ex situ conservation (captive breeding, zoos)
Goal whenever possible return species to wild (can work with in situ management to that end)
Most expensive option! :(
Better option is mitigate climate change before this becomes necessary
International Climate Policy
What does the UNFCCC stand for?
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
What is the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)?
Outlines international climate policy on climate change
Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro in 1992 global recognition that action needed to
By December 2005, 197 countries have ratified agreement
UNFCCC –> response to increased understanding of human forcings on climate systems (data from Mauna Loa & GCM models)
Action needed –> set no conditions on what actions were
When the UNFCCC was first outlined, it stated that action was needed but set no conditions on what these actions were.
What were the two key treaties that helped change this?
Two key treaties helped change this
Kyoto Protocol – 1997
Paris Agreement – 2015
What is the Kyoto Protocol?
The Kyoto Protocol:
- supplemented the UNFCCC and set targets for GG emissions
- commitment to reduce GG gas emissions in 2 time blocks
(2008-2012 and 2013-2020) - Emissions reductions set by country – no developing countries were included (it would ‘harm’ their economic growth)
Ratified by 195 countries
In the Kyoto Protocol, why were no developing countries included in the emissions reductions?
(it would ‘harm’ their economic growth)
The Kyoto Protocol was ratified by how many countries?
Ratified by 195 countries
Why did the USA refuse to ratify the Kyoto Protocol treaty?
President Bush deemed that it would cause economic set-backs.
Canada pulled out in 2012 under the Harper Administration (Former PM Stephen Harper felt it was ‘not a priority’)
The Kyoto Protocol
When did Japan, New Zealand & Russia join the Kyoto Protocol?
Japan, New Zealand & Russia joined for the 2013-2020 time block
What is the Paris Agreement?
Paris Agreement amended this to attempt to hold climate change increase to 1.5 degrees C
Commitment to reduce greenhouse gases to meet this target starting in 2020
Agreed on by 197 countries, ratified by 113 countries as of November 2016
Earlier agreements (Copenhagen Accord) set target of keeping climate change BELOW 2 degrees C increase
How about the Paris Agreement?
Paris Agreement amended this to attempt to hold it to 1.5 degrees C
The Paris Agreement
Agreed on by 197 countries, ratified by 113 countries as of November 2016
Canada signed under PM Trudeau in April, 2016
China and USA signed after China’s climate policy adviser, Li Shuo, met with USA’s President Obama in Sep, 2016
The Paris Agreement
China & USA account for how much total global GG emissions?
about 40%
At the time of the Kyoto Protocol, why was China exempt from the emissions reductions?
China was NOT a big contributor at time of Kyoto Protocol, and was a developing country so was exempt from emissions reductions
What are the goals of UNFCCC?
Ultimate: “stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere… at a level that would avoid dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.”
Need to meet this goal in a time frame that allows ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change
To meet this goal, GHG pollution needs to END
Other goals: nature conservation, food security, poverty reduction
Who are the members of the UNFCCC?
Conference of Parties (COPs)
Conference of Parties (COPs)
- Annual meetings of country representatives
- Kyoto was COP-1, Paris was COP-21
-Has many advisory bodies
E.g.) Subsidiary Body on Scientific, Technical, and Technological Advice (SBSTTA) with many subgroups
Makes all binding decisions but these take YEARS
Developed and developing countries have different roles (most GHG pollution from developed countries, and now China)
Who are the members of the UNFCCC?
RINGO
RINGO
Research and Independent Non-Government Organization
Scientists cannot participate directly in COP, but can discuss science with country delegates
Led to formation of RINGO
Researchers collaborating to coordinate research activities and promote science to delegates
Led to development of programs like REDD and Adaptation Fund ($ for developing countries to adapt to / mitigate climate change)
What is the purpose of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)?
Falls under UN Environmental Program (UNEP)
Independent of UNFCCC, also focuses on climate change science
Purpose: provide updated scientific summaries for public & global policy makers
Started in 1990, produces reports every 6 years
What are the four volumes of each IPCC report?
Each report = 4 volumes (3 from working groups)
Working Group 1 – The Scientific Basis (review of climate science)
Working Group 2 – Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability (impacts of climate changes, assess possible adaptation options and vulnerable groups)
Working Group 3 – Mitigation (reviews mitigation options)
4th volume – Executive summary
Name the IPCC findings.
Assessment Report finding
Assessment Reports
AR1 - human pollution is the cause of increases in atmospheric CO2, and this will likely result in climate change
AR2 - a discernable change in global climate has already occurred, caused by GHG emissions
AR3 - climate change is occurring more rapidly than any time in the past 10,000 years
AR4 - the planet is unequivocally warming, and it will continue to warm for centuries even if we take rapid action to reduce GHG pollution
AR5 - it is urgent that we act now to avoid high costs later (mitigation and adaptation costs)
What are carbon markets?
Provisions for trading carbon reduction (Kyoto Protocol)
Cap-and-trade pollution strategy to limit the amount of pollution allowed and reducing costs overall
- Countries can purchase the right to pollute from ones that will likely be lower than target emissions
- Factories can pair up with ones in other countries (based on whether cheaper to update technology or buy Carbon credits from an already updated factory)
Carbon markets in the EU are used to
EU –> carbon market to achieve reductions in most cost-effective way possible
Which market is the largest carbon market?
The EU market is the largest.
What is REDD?
Reduced emissions from deforestation & degradation
Deforestation = ~ 1/6 of global CO2 emissions
Cease / offset deforestation to meet UNFCCC objectives
Most of current deforestation is in the Tropics (temperate forests are increasing)
Tropical countries excluded from Carbon markets (developing countries exempt from emissions reductions)
COP-11 (Montreal, 2005) –> Tropical forest countries pushed for deforestation to be included in emissions framework
REDD guidelines –> allows reductions in deforestation to be quantified, rewarded and traded on Carbon market
What are the two critical challenges of REDD?
Leakage
Equitable distribution of revenues
What are the two critical challenges of REDD?
- Leakage
Leakage
- Risk that deforestation from one country will move into neighbouring ones (no ↓ net in emissions)
- National and regional deforestation reduction plans need to account for leakage
What are the two critical challenges of REDD?
- Equitable distribution of revenues
Equitable distribution of revenues
- Nations participate in UNFCCC and REDD
- Local people are the ones impacted by emissions reduction strategies
- Local people should receive most of rewards of carbon payments, but national governments are ones getting $
International Climate Policy
Why doesn’t it work?
Science behind climate change more complex than behind ozone hole so it is easier for climate deniers to denounce
UNFCCC and IPCC –> sound science, but we may not be able to overcome obstacles in time to effect real change
T or F: Reducing GHG emissions is enough to stop climate change.
False - Reducing GHG emissions is NOT enough to stop climate change.
You need to stabilize atmospheric GHG concentrations (GHG emissions = 0)
In the Pari Agreement, carbon dioxide < 450 ppm to keep temp increase under 2 degrees
CO2 >400 ppm for first time in 2015
Targets focus on CO2, but also include GHGs as CO2 equivalents (remember these are more potent GHGs)
Targets difficult to achieve = led to overshoot strategies (allow GHG to surpass target level, then bring them down later on)
Problem with overshoots = natural systems may undergo two climate transitions instead of one (more damage?)
Stabilizing GHG
In the next 50 years, some practical steps
First step
Early shift to more energy-efficient and renewable technologies
Energy efficiency
- 2 billion cars to hybrids
- high efficiency light bulbs, better insulated buildings, increased fuel efficiency in cars
Renewable E sources
- existing wind energy
- photovoltaic solar energy
- photovoltaic solar E with H fuel cells
- biofuel from crops
With above technology, we have two efficiency and four renewable E wedges –> one less than needed to meet demands of ‘triangle’
There are 15 technologies in existence –> can fill 12 wedges
Renewable E sources
What are the two major categories of solar energy?
Solar thermal - solar E carrier fluid used to drive another process
Solar voltaic (or photovoltaic cells) - electrons excited by photons and solar E captured
Photovoltaic (PV) cells
Solar E reaches PV array and releases electrons
Electrons are captured and channeled by silicon of PV cells
Rooftop PV could meet ~ 50% of world’s E demands with no land use demands
Renewable E sources
Wind Energy
Global-installed wind energy currently >60 gigawatts
Increased 12X between 1995 and 2005
Almost all = electricity-generating turbines
Global-installed capacity 1 terawatts by 2020 (total E demands ~ 2-3 terawatts at that time)
Could provide ~ 50% of world’s E by 2050
Limited by # of high-wind potential areas
Renewable E sources
Solar and Wind co-location
Can use same land for photovoltaic panels and other land uses (e.g. on residential roofs or in open spaces), reducing the impact on natural habitats
Renewable E sources
Biofuels
Conversion of solar energy into plant materials for liquid fuels (e.g. ethanol – gas substitute in newer cars)
Ex) Brazil
Most advanced biofuel program in world
~ 40% of gasoline use replaced with ethanol
Ethanol (mostly sugar cane waste)
Other countries limited because biofuel competes with agriculture for food (both require same spaces)
Renewable E sources
Hydropower
Generate electricity by running a turbine with water held back by a dam
Currently ~ 20% of world’s power and >50% of Canada’s power
China –> greatest potential for hydro growth
Limitation = most of potential sites for high dam hydropower already in use
Greater potential for expansion of small to medium sized hydropower projects
Inexhaustible energy source
Nuclear Power
Nuclear Power
Non-renewable, but does not produce GHG pollution
TWO TYPES
Nuclear Fission – well tested, widely used, produces weapons grade bi-products and radioactive waste
Nuclear Fusion – untested commercially, but major projects under construction will likely change this, no weapons grade biproducts and waste is far less radioactive
~450 in world, with another 60 under construction
~78% of power in France nuclear
Current global capacity ~ 350 GW (more than all renewables combined)
