Lecture 10 Flashcards
List of tools for innovation management is endless…
- Today’s goal is to show you a selection of valuable tools. Two problems:
- tools are often presented as one-size-fits-all super-solutions, which they are not
- tools are underutilized because managers do not know or do not fully understand them
- Important: the value of applying a tool varies with context
- – pick the right one yourself!
- – So: “More arrows for your quiver?”
- No: “more golf clubs – you have to pick the right one yourself!”
What are these tools good for?
- Innovation strategy requires up-to-date information about the environment –
- e.g., technological state of the art, customer needs, and possible competitor actions (judging from past action, resource position)
- Formulating an innovation strategy consequently implies technology, competition, as well as market and demand analysis.
Analysis of needs and demand: Tools
- How will the market / techno- logy develop in the long run?
- Delphi Analysis
- Are there attractive niches in the market?
- Positioning
- What should the ideal product look like?
- Conjoint Analysis
- What are the risks of the innovation?
- Risk analysis
Delphi analysis
Delphi analysis plus and minus
PLUS +
- suitable for long-term predictions in complex situations with little structure (on topics related to needs, demand, technology, …)
- avoids group pressure
- convergence of expert opinions
- holistic approach
MINUS –
- time-consuming
- participants may drop out
- no sound theoretical basis
- no direct discussion between experts
- results depending on choice of experts
- need to justify opinions may lead to overly conservative estimates
Example: Delphi Analysis at ISI (1998)*
Methodology: Two step process
- – 1st: Commission of experts (more than 100) makes up list of cases and forwards it to even larger number of specialists (~7.000!)
- – 2nd: Replies are processed and sent out again to the specialists who answered in Step 1 (2.453): seeing other expert assessments may cause a change in opinion (1.856 replies received)
The Study: Global Evolution of Science and Technology
- – 1070 theses out of 12 categories, e.g. information & communication, management & production, health & life sciences, …
- – Several short term (-2005), medium-term (-2015), and long-term (2015-) scientific and technological trends identified, as well as current major strength and weaknesses
Positioning
Positioning models provide a quick overview over the market.
They allow to identify niches and opportunities for innovation.
Basic idea: Reduce dimensionality of relevant space
Positioning: Factor analysis
Factor analysis: aggregation process
- The resulting list of rated variables possibly contains lots of redundancies
- – Factor analysis is a means to find variables that basically measure the same underlying factor and to combine them to a new variable
- – Example: Variables large trunk size and number of passenger seats might be aggregated to form a new factor ‘space’
- As a means, principle component analysis can be used
- – Factor generates a new dimension
- (or new axis) that contains nearly as much information as the corresponding variables (“rotation” of original data)
- – To explain additional variables, further dimensions can be introduced
- – Number of factors is increased as long as new factor represents variance of underlying variables adequately
Factor analysis: an example
- Survey: Marketing in a bank to identify key customers
- Asked for level of agreement, on a 0-9 scale
- – X1. Small banks charge less than large banks
- – X2. Large banks are more likely to make mistakes than small banks
- – X3. Tellers do not need to be extremely courteous and friendly; it’s enough for them simply to be civil
- – X4. I want to be know personally at my bank and to be treated with special courtesy
- – X5. If a financial institution treated me in an impersonal or uncaring way, I would never patronize that organization again
Positioning: Multidimensional scaling
Conjoint Analysis
Conjoint analysis” denotes methods of preference analysis that allow to derive the preference for individual characteristics and realizations from “holistic” judgments.
Conjoint-Experiment: Notebook
Conducted in course TIM Intro ST 2012
Experiment: Please tear off the nine conjoint cards and put them into your preference order (assuming other technical features are identical).
Recommendation: start by sorting the cards into three packs (good, medium, bad), and then do the fine-sorting.
When you are done ordering, write down your preference order:
Notebook 1 Dimensions: Performance: Price:
ultrathin and ultralight (1,7cm/1,5kg) high (2x2,3 Ghz/4 GB RAM)
€ 400
Notebook 2 Dimensions: Performance: Price:
desktop replacement (3,0cm/3,0kg) medium (2x1,6 Ghz/2 GB RAM) € 900
Notebook 3
Dimensions:
Performance: low (2x1,0 Ghz/1 GB RAM)
Price:
….
ultrathin and ultralight (1,7cm/1,5kg) € 900
Conjoint Analysis plus - minus
PLUS +
- Natural decision situation
- Respondents are not
- overstrained
- Importance of characteristics (e.g., horsepower) and realizations (100 / 150 / 200) is identified
- K.O. criteria and trade-offs are identified
MINUS –
- Only limited number of characteristics / realizations possible
- Correct choice of relevant characteristics required
Technology analysis Monitoring: Steps
Forecasting Methods: Overview
