Lecture 10 Flashcards

1
Q

What is Decision Making?

A

The process of making choices to achieve goals based on available information.

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2
Q

What are Decisions?

A

Outcomes resulting from evaluating and selecting among alternatives.

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3
Q

What is Reasoning?

A

Drawing conclusions through logical thinking.

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4
Q

Why Study Decision Making?

A

To understand human behavior, improve outcomes, and identify cognitive biases.

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5
Q

Who is Daniel Kahneman?

A

A psychologist who introduced the dual-process theory of thinking (System 1 and System 2).

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6
Q

What is ‘Thinking Fast and Slow’?

A

Kahneman’s book outlining intuitive (System 1) and analytical (System 2) decision-making processes.

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7
Q

What is System 1 Thinking?

A

Fast, automatic, and heuristic-based decision-making.

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8
Q

What is System 2 Thinking?

A

Slow, deliberate, and logical decision-making.

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9
Q

What are Heuristics?

A

Mental shortcuts that simplify decision-making but can introduce biases.

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10
Q

What is the Availability Heuristic?

A

Estimating probabilities based on how easily examples come to mind.

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11
Q

What influences Availability Heuristics?

A

Influenced by recency, vividness, and emotional impact.

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12
Q

What is the Base Rate Fallacy?

A

Ignoring statistical probabilities in favor of anecdotal evidence.

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13
Q

What is the Representativeness Heuristic?

A

Judging likelihoods based on similarity to stereotypes or categories.

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14
Q

What is the Conjunctive Fallacy?

A

Assuming combined events are more probable than single events.

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15
Q

What is the Framing Heuristic?

A

Decisions influenced by whether choices are presented as gains or losses.

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16
Q

What are Anchoring Effects?

A

Tendency to rely heavily on initial information when making decisions.

17
Q

Who are Tversky and Kahneman?

A

Developed research on heuristics and biases in human judgment.

18
Q

What is the Law of Sample Size?

A

Smaller samples are less representative and more prone to error.

19
Q

What is the Gambler’s Fallacy?

A

Belief that outcomes will ‘balance out’ in the short term (e.g., expecting a win after a losing streak).

20
Q

What is the Hot Hand Fallacy?

A

Belief that success will continue during a streak of positive outcomes.

21
Q

What is Reasoning with Base Rate?

A

Involves properly considering statistical probabilities in judgments.

22
Q

What are the Benefits and Drawbacks to Heuristics?

A

Heuristics simplify complex decisions but may lead to errors.

23
Q

What is Positive Framing?

A

Presenting options as gains influences preference.

24
Q

What is Negative Framing?

A

Presenting options as losses influences risk aversion.

25
Q

How do Experts and Base Rate relate?

A

Even experts often neglect base rates, leading to errors in judgment.

26
Q

What did Cassells et al. (1978) study?

A

Study demonstrating base rate neglect in medical diagnoses.

27
Q

How can Diagnostics and Computers help?

A

Algorithms can reduce human error in decision-making processes.

28
Q

What is Intuitive Thinking?

A

Decisions based on gut feelings or immediate judgments.

29
Q

What is Deliberative Thinking?

A

Carefully analyzing information before making decisions.

30
Q

What is Satisficing?

A

Choosing an option that meets minimum criteria instead of optimizing.

31
Q

What is Utility Theory?

A

Describes how decisions aim to maximize value or utility.

32
Q

What is Expected Utility?

A

Weighing probabilities and outcomes to make rational decisions.

33
Q

What is Subjective Utility Theory?

A

Utility is based on individual preferences rather than objective measures.

34
Q

What is Loss Aversion?

A

Losses are perceived as more impactful than equivalent gains.

35
Q

What is the Sunk Cost Fallacy?

A

Continuing investments in failing endeavors due to prior commitments.