Lec 9

Question 1

Clinical judgment:

Answer 1

Reaching a decision by processing information in one’s head

Question 2

Actuarial judgment:

Answer 2

Reaching a decision without employing subjective human judgment, using empirically-established relations between data and the event of interest

Question 3

Clinician’s strengths:

Answer 3

1. Theory mediated judgment
2. Able to detect complex predictive solutions
3. Ability to use rare events- current case is an exception to the statistical trend

Question 4

Clinician’s weaknesses:

Answer 4

• Human influences
• Human judgment
• Motivational
• Cognitive- misled by normal ways of thinking
• Confirmation bias
• Overconfidence

Question 5

Calibration:

Answer 5

The proportion of times wrong compared to the proportion of times we said we’d be the wrong

Question 6

Calibration curve:

Answer 6

• Assessing the true proportion of times when the event occurs with a person’s judgment
• Plot the person’s judgment on the X-axis and the proportion on the Y-axis

Question 7

Avoiding overconfidence:

Answer 7

• Avoid predictions in unfamiliar domains
• Especially if confidence is high, adjust down
• Challenge your own beliefs

Question 8

DUNDRUM:

Answer 8

Provide support in determining the security on admission

Question 9

What DUNDRUM-1 measures:

Answer 9

Security triage

predicts drop-out

Question 10

What DUNDRUM-2 measures:

Answer 10

Urgency of need

Question 11

What DUNDRUM-3 measures:

Answer 11

Program Completion

Question 12

What DUNDRUM-4 measures:

Answer 12

Forensic Recovery

Question 13

What IFTE measures:

Answer 13

Instrument for Forensic Treatment Evaluation

-Progress of treatment- level of functioning, changes