Lec 11 - Global Population Dynamics

Question 1

Define:
TFR
Replacement fertility rate
IMR
LE

Answer 1

Total fertility rate (TFR):
- Average number of children a woman would have in her
child-bearing years (15-44)
 Replacement fertility rate:
- Number of children a couple must have to replacement
themselves
 Infant mortality rate (IMR):
- Number of deaths age 1 or less/1000
 Life expectancy (LE):
- Number of years a person is expected to live at birth

Question 2

What is the formula for doubling time

Answer 2

DT = 70/RNI

Question 3

What are the elements of the demographic equation

Answer 3

r = (b – d) + (i – e)

	○ B = crude birth rate 
	○ D = crude death rate (deaths/1000 of a population per given year, today = 12)
	○ I = immigration
	○ E = emigration

Question 4

what caused the population explosion

Answer 4

• Cause of population ‘explosion’
  ○ Before WW1: food
  ○ After WW2: healthcare, medical, increase in income

Question 5

What are the 4 steps of the demographic transition?

Answer 5

1) High birth rate and high death rate (CBR=CDR)
2) Transitional stage or early expansion
- CBR remains high but CDR starts to fall because of improved healthcare
- Population expanding rapidly, because people aren’t confident that their children will survive
- e.g.: Kenya
3) Industrial stage or late expanding phase
- CBR still > CDR, but CBR starts to fall
- DT = 40 - 60 years
- e.g. Brazil and Sri Lanka

	4) Low stationary stage - CBR and CDR are both low. stable or slow increase in population size

Question 6

Compare the population structures of Kenya, the US and Italy

Answer 6

• Kenya
  ○ Young population
  
  • USA
    ○ Distribution across age cohorts is similar
  • Italy
    ○ Pop is shrinking (# of children is low, will work its way up the population pyramid)

Question 7

What is population momentum

Answer 7

Population will continue to grow until birth rate falls

Question 8

How do mortality and emigration affect population growth?

Answer 8

○ Catastrophic mortality or emigration does not have a huge impact on population growth. Thus focus of population policy is on fertility rate

Question 9

Why do countries have high fertility rate

Answer 9

• Need children for labour, assets, security, power in agrarian societies
  - Social norms and values
  - Political reasons

Question 10

What are 3 approaches to decreasing fertility rates

Answer 10

○ Later, longer, fewer
- Have babies later and space out births
○ Coercive vs voluntary approaches
- Voluntary more effective, focuses especially on education of women

Endogenous to development process
 Ex. education

Question 11

What is the world average TFR

Answer 11

2.3

Question 12

what is the current trend in world growth rate

Answer 12

growth rate is decreasing