LBO modelling Flashcards
How should IRR and WACC relate to each other?
IRR of a private equity investment should always be greater than WACC
What is the condition that the traditional comparison of a leveraged buyout to house flipping relies on?
That you buy the house and rent it out, and use the rent payments to pay down the debt
How does debt funding help a PE fund?
- Reduces the upfront cost of acquiring a company, making it easier for the PE firm to earn a high IRR
- It lets the PE firm use the company’s cash flows to repay the debt and make interest payments
Does leverage boost or amplify returns?
Only amplifies - if a deal does well, leverage increases how well it does. However, if a deal does badly, leverage increases how badly it does.
In a leveraged buyout, does the private equity firm own the company?
No - it forms a holding company (which it owns) and this holding company acquires the real company.
If pre-takeover management rollover their equity, they will also own equity in this holdco, rather than equity in the PE firm.
When banks issue debt for a PE firm to do a leveraged buyout, does the private equity firm take the debt onto their balance sheet?
No - it goes on the balance sheet of the HoldCo.
This is important as it means the private equity firm is not on the hook for the debt - it is the holding company that is
Ideal characteristics for an LBO candidate?
Price seen as ‘cheap’ either vs peers, or industry itself viewed as undervalued
Stable cash flows so that the company can consistently service its debt
Significant fixed assets such as PP&E fir use as debt collateral
Minimal CapEx is ideal (e.g. mature company with lots of assets, but not spending much on new assets)
Minimal working capital requirements also help, but tend to matter less
Lower to mid range EBITDA multiple vs peers, meaning the multiple is unlikely to come down further
Is growth or stability more important in an LBO?
Stability - can’t have cash flows declining any 80% in one quarter and a company defaulting on its debt
Does a company’s current capital structure affect its viability as a leveraged buyout candidate?
No - because in an LBO, the company’s existing capital structure is “wiped out” and replaced with a new capital structure
What does a strong management team actually mean?
Both CEO and CFO are experienced and have worked together for a long time, ideally participating in the LBO by rolling over equity to get “skin in the game”
What industry / market factors are appealing for a potential LBO candidate?
High barriers to entry or strong brand ‘stickiness’
Strong competitive advantage
Ideally, market is very fragmented so it is easier for PE firms to find attractive bolt-on acquisitions
What credit stats are useful to look at for an LBO candidate?
EBITDA / Net interest expense > 2,0x, (EBITDA - Capex) > 1.5x, Total debt / EBITDA >5-6x (unusual to go over this, often can be much less)
What are the financial drivers of returns in an LBO?
Mostly EBITDA growth and/or debt paydown, with minimal (if any) multiple expansion
What is the difference between buyout and growth equity?
Buyout take majority positions, growth equity tends to be minority positions in small and growing companies
In a simple LBO model, what would be the three key steps?
- Transaction assumptions and sources and uses
- Forecasting the company’s cash flow and debt schedule
- Making exit assumptions, calculating IRR and MoM and assessing the return drivers
How do you judge the amount of debt used in the LBO?
Usually look at the leverage ratio used in similar, recent deals in the industry
What does a cash-free, debt-free deal mean?
The target company’s existing cash and debt both go to 0 when the deal closes, and then gets replaced immediately
What would go in the uses part of a sources and uses? (maybe just for private companies?)
Purchase equity
Gross value of debt
Transaction fees
Financing fees
Minimum cash balance required
What typically goes in the sources part of a sources and uses?
Debt
Investor equity (which acts as the plug in the sources and uses)
Also, sometimes management may rollover their own equity which can also be a source
How do you calculate the purchase price for a public company?
Apply the premium to the company’s undisturbed share price
In an LBO of a public company, is it the purchase equity value or the purchase enterprise value in the sources section?
Equity value, as long as a premium has been applied to it
For a public company LBO, what would be in the sources table?
New debt issued
Assume/replace of target’s current debt
Excess cash on balance sheet (if any)
Investor equity (used as the plug)
For a public company LBO, what would be in the uses table?
Equity purchase price (including premium)
Assume / replace target debt
Transaction fees
Financing fees
Minimum cash balance (may not be needed if you use excess cash in the sources table, rather than total cash)
Do you need a full 3-statement model for an LBO?
No, only need an income statement and partial cash flow statement so that you can estimate the company’s recurring cash flow from its core business operations
What line items are needed for a cash flow statement in an LBO?
Net income (levered, but not initially including interest expense)
+ Depreciation & amortisation
- Increases in NWC
- Capex
+ Beginning cash balance
- Minimum cash balance
+ Free cash flow (Cash flow from operations - Capex, NOT LFCF or UFCF)
In a simple LBO, you calculate free cash flow using the formula ‘Cash flow from operations - Capex’. How would you calculate cash flow from operations?
Net income
+ D&A (and other non-cash expenses)
- Increases in NWC
In standard LBO models, would you use free cash flow to pay out dividends, or pay down debt?
Traditionally you would pay down debt, although it is important to consider the impact to returns in both cases
What are the four main exit options for LBO candidates?
- Sale to strategics
- Sale to other financial sponsors
- IPO
- Dividend recap
Which exit strategy tends to produce the highest IRR?
M&A exit because the sponsor cal sell its entire stake at once and does not have to wait for years to sell its shares to recover its initial investment
Why are two reasons an IPO exit sometimes used instead of a sale to a sponsor or strategic?
Any firm over a certain size can go public; sale needs a willing buyer
Can also participate in the equity upside of the company.
What is the main advantage of an IPO exit?
Any firm over a certain size can go public
You get to retain a significant portion of the equity, which is required because investors need reassurance that the sponsor/mgmt believe in the company’s equity story. Therefore, you can also participate in any future upside, although this may decrease IRR.
What are some of the main disadvantages of the IPO exit?
Unlikely that the PE firm can sell its entire stake at once, which prolongs the time in the investment. This is because if the PE firm sells the entire stake, it sends a very bad message to the market (i.e. selling entire stake because see this as the high point for the stock)
Also, because IPO loses the control premium, the initial multiple at exit will likely be less than sale to a strategic/sponsor, although if the share price increases over time, this may help the multiple over long run.
Why does a firm not usually sell the entire stake in an IPO?
Sends a bad message - management / owners dont believe in the future prospect of the business raising the valuation further
Instead, the firm may sell 20-30% in the immediate deal, but it would have to sell the remaining 70-80% quietly over time
What are the ways of issuing a dividend recap?
Taking on more debt and paying proceeds out as dividends rather than to buy anythign
Using the target company’s FCF to pay out yearly dividends
If the money on money multiple looks acceptable but the IRR does not, how could you increase the IRR?
Assuming earlier exit or dividends in the holding period
What is the formula for calculating the return attribution from EBITDA growth?
(Exit year EBITDA - Initial EBITDA) * EBITDA purchase multiple
What is the formula for calculating the return attribution from multiple expansion?
(EBITDA Exit multiple - EBITDA purchase multiple) * Exit year EBITDA
What is the formula for calculating the return attribution from debt pay down / cash generation?
Total return - returns from EBITDA growth - returns from multiple expansion (or initial debt - final debt + final cash - initial cash - transaction and financing fees)
What is the logic behind calculating the return from EBITDA growth?
How much value would we get solely from the company’s EBITDA growing if the purchase multiple stayed the same
What is the logic behind calculating the returns from multiple expansion?
How much value would we get solely from the multiple increasing if the initial EBITDA were the same as its final year EBITDA
What is the formula for working out a quick approximation of IRR if you know the money on money multiple as well as the holding period?
72 / holding period = IRR
OR
72 / IRR = Holding period
What is the IRR for a 2x multiple in 3 years?
Approximately 25% IRR
What is the IRR for a 2x multiple in 5 years?
Approximately 15% IRR
What is the IRR for a 3x multiple in 3 years?
Approximately 45% IRR
What is the IRR for a 3x multiple in 5 years?
Approximately 25% IRR
What is the IRR for a 3x multiple in 4 years?
Approximately 35% IRR
What is the IRR for a 2x multiple in 4 years?
Approximately 20% IRR
The 3-year IRR in an LBO is 35%, and the exit equity proceeds are $1,000. What is the initial investor equity?
A 3x multiple over 3 years is c.45% IRR, and 2x over 3 years is c.25% IRR, so a 35% IRR is around a 2.5x multiple
Using 2.5x multiple, Investor equity would be 1,000 / 2.5x, so initial equity would be $400
A PE firm invests $50 in a leveraged buyout in Year 0 and takes the company public in Year 3. It sells 1/3 of its stake each year in Years 3 – 5, and its total stake is worth $100 in Year 3. Assume no changes in the value of the stake and estimate the IRR.
2x MoM multiple (100/50), with the average exit year being year 4.
A 2x multiple in 3 years is a 25% IRR, a 2x multiple in 5 years is 15% IRR, so a 2x multiple in 4 years should be around 20% IRR
A PE firm acquires a $100 million EBITDA company for a 12x multiple using 50% Debt.
The company’s EBITDA grows to $150 million by Year 5, but the exit multiple drops to 10x. The company repays $300 million of Debt and generates $100 million of additional Cash in this period. What’s the approximate IRR?
Approximately 16-17%
A PE firm acquires a $100 EBITDA business for a 10x multiple, and it believes it can sell it again in 5 years for the same 10x multiple.
It funds the deal using 6x Debt / EBITDA, and the company repays 50% of this Debt over the 5 years, generating no extra Cash. How much EBITDA Growth is required to realize a 25% IRR?
Approximately $150 in EBITDA, so 50% growth
A PE firm acquires a $500 EBITDA company for a 6x multiple using 50% Debt.
The company’s EBITDA increases to $600 in Year 3, and it repays 75% of the Debt. The PE firm takes the company public and sells its stake evenly over Years 4 – 7 at a 9x multiple of the Year 3 EBITDA. What’s the approximate IRR?
Approximately 25% IRR
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In an LBO model, what is a stub period?
PE firm enters/exits part way through a financial year
Stopped at 3 hour case study
Stopped at 3 hour case study
What is the difference between a leveraged and unleveraged dividend recap?
Leverage is funded with debt, and unleveraged is funded with cash flows of the company
When can a PE firm execute a dividend recap?
It can be used as a exit strategy, but a PE firm can also execute dividend recaps midway through the holding period to boost their returns
What are the ways that a PE firm can incentivise management to act in the PE firms best interest?
Allowing the management team to roll over their shares, offering an options pool, or by offering earn-out payments
There could also be waterfall returns
What is a management waterfall return schedule?
Dependent on the IRR for the PE firm, the management teams rolled-over equity would represent a higher % of the company
The important part of a waterfall schedule is that there will be a small reduction in IRR to the private equity firm, but a quite drastic increase in IRR to the management team, greatly boosting their alignment with the transaction
What is a shareholder loan in the context of an LBO?
The idea is that a PE firm can call a portion of its investor equity a “shareholder loan” and then record “interest” each year. This interest is almost always paid-in-kind, so it accrues to the shareholder loan principal and does not represent an additional cash expense.
Does a shareholder loan affect net debt in an LBO?
No, it counts as equity from the PE firm, and doesn’t count as ‘debt’ in the transaction - only difference is that the interest can be expensed on the income statement.
The shareholder loan then being repaid with the exit equity proceeds after calculating the exit enterprise value and subtracting the net debt.
On what financial statements does PIK interest show up?
On the income statement and cash flow statement. The interest on this shareholder loan is tax deductible, even though it is non-cash.
Therefore, on the cash flow statement, you can add back the shareholder loan interest since it is non-cash; as a result, the company’s FCF increases due to the tax savings.
In addition, the interest accrues to the shareholder loan balance each year.
Why do PE firms use a shareholder loan?
Sometimes you can get tax savings: the firm effectively “deducts: a portion of its IRR each year. But shareholder loans are still treated like equity, so that the exit calculations remain the same, but you show the proceeds separately. The end result of this shareholder loan is that the MoM and IRR increase slightly because of the tax saving.
However, even if there are no tax savings, it is a guaranteed way of achieving a base IRR, usually trying to get to the hurdle rate of 8-12%. There will also be priority over management equity, in case the deal goes bad.
What is a seller’s note?
In this case, the buyer issues a promissory note to the seller that it agrees to repay (amortize) over fixed period of time.
A seller note is commonly used to bridge a gap between the amount a seller is seeking in a sale transaction and the amount a buyer is willing or able to pay.
How does the interest rate on preferred stock compare to traditional debt?
All else equal, will be lower as the debt holder retains the potential to convert into equity
On financial statements following an LBO, what might “cost savings” or “operating cost reductions” mean?
PE firm might look at an underperforming business division, conclude that it generates marginal revenue while costing too much to operate, and shut it down
What are call premiums and prepayment penalties?
Often more junior forms of debt, such as subordinated notes and mezzanine debt, partial optional repayments are not allowed because the debt has “bullet maturity”
However, if the company has sufficient cash flow, it can sometimes repay the entire balance early if it is willing to pay a penalty fee too do so.
These penalty fees go by names such as “prepayment premiums”, “prepayment penalties”, “take-out premiums”, and “call premiums”
What are call premiums and prepayment penalties?
Often more junior forms of debt, such as subordinated notes and mezzanine debt, partial optional repayments are not allowed because the debt has “bullet maturity”
However, if the company has sufficient cash flow, it can sometimes repay the entire balance early if it is willing to pay a penalty fee too do so.
These penalty fees go by names such as “prepayment premiums”, “prepayment penalties”, “take-out premiums”, and “call premiums”
What are original issue discounts?
This is when debt is issued at a discount to its par value.
Why would a bond be issued at an original issue discount?
Often happens when a bond’s coupon rate is below the rates to other, similar bonds, and the company needs to offer an incentive to investors.