L9 Heuristics & Bias I Flashcards
What is a heuristic?
A rule of thumb, intended for broad applications but not to be correct necessarily 100% of the time. produces systematic errors (Biases).
When are heuristics used?
When;
- Information is ambiguous
- Information is incomplete
- Time limited
- Cognitive resource limited.
Describe the Availability heuristic
Events probability are judged by the ease of which they come to mind.
Describe the Anchoring heuristic
People first make an estimate, then adjust from there. can be influenced by irrelevant information.
Describe the Representative heuristic
People judge probabilities based on how ‘representative’ process A is in relation to outcome B
Gives rise to the Base rate phalacy, where base rates are ignored (because of the initial representation of a problem). Also to the Conjunction phalacy (linda the feminist bank teller)
Describe the Framing heuristic
Described by Prospect theory S-shaped curve. The way things are framed as ‘losses’ or ‘gains’ impacts our decisions. Losses loom larger than gains. low probabilities are over weighted, high probabilities are under weighted
Error is defined by what the optimal outcome or behaviour is; Describe why Heuristics are adaptive
Heuristics exploit the environment structure saving us cognitive energy and making simple quick decisions that mostly are correct. The benefits of the Heuristic must outweigh the cost of it if its going to be adaptive in an evolutionary context.
Describe and explain a study which shows Heuristics exploiting natural structure.
American and German students given names of American and German cities, and asked questions about them. Found that people performed better about the country they knew less about; this is because they could use there Recognition Heuristic, which exploits the Media as a natural structure and source of information.
Biases are not errors. Explain.
A Bias is adapted against a cost benefit analysis, systematic errors occur when the strategy is optimised for a different environment. so if errors want to be avoided then a new analysis is required.
