L5 Flashcards
How does a cost-benefit IAM differ from a detailed process IAM (Cost-effectiveness)
Differ in …
- level of disaggregation
- complexity and number of equations
- monetization of climate damages
- optimal vs effective policies
What is a benefit-cost IAM look to do
estiamte the optimal path given the cost of mitigation and the cost of reducing emissions or transforming our economies from where we are today
i.e. avoided climate impacts and benefits from changing the economy
this is a simpler model than the cost-effective
What does cost-effectiveness IAMs look into
they follow a cost-effective paradigm - dont tell you the level fo mitigation given what it costs and what we gain
physical climate uses - give us the optimal path to achieve a certain target
how to achieve a certain target at the lowest possible cost
What are the key components of the energy system?
Primary sources ie. ff, re, and nuclear
Energy transformation processes - secondary and final energy
i.e. electricity, heating fuels and transport fuels
Useful energy and energy services
i.e. lighting, information processing, thermal comfort and mobility
What is an energy system model?
an abstract representation of an energy system
- math or other formulation integrating information of interest and clarifies its behaviour
can have varying forms of complexity from simple diagram to a set of equation each capturing some aspect of the energy system
What is an example of an energy system model?
the MESSAGE mdel
demonstrates the connections from the resource to the final demand
gives an idea of the overview
What are the four main categories of energy system model?
Technology risk engineering, cost optimisation models
tehcnology rich simulation modesl
computable general equilibrium models
econometric models
What is optimisation and simulation in the context of energy models?
Optimisation
models that have perfect foresight - aware of everything that will become int he next century
Simulation
- takes information ina. certain time step then calculated what will happen in each timestep
What are the four key transformation required in the energy sector?
1/ improve energy efficiency - final energy demand in 2050 to be +10 to =10% rel. to 2010 levels
2/electrify energy end us - mobility, buildings and industry
3/ decarbonise the power sector - carbon intensity of 0 or neg by 2050
4/ subst. residual FF with low-carbon options eg. sustainable biofuels or green hydrogen for transport
What is the role of electricity sector in decarbonisation?
electrification of demand sectors is a key mitigation lever
emissions cuts from electricity production are central to achieving net zero
potential for net negative emissions –> offset residual emissions in other sectors
What are some of the sources of uncertainty in projected models?
- internal variability
-response uncertainty
-model spread
How does uncertainties in models play out over time
in the first 5 years - internal variability dominates global temperature uncertainty
then it is mainly dominated by response uncertainty and scenario spread/choice
What are scenarios?
they are not forecasted they dont predict what is going to happen but they are tools to explore the what ifs
make assumptions about pop growth, wealth, tech efficiency and availability
What are the potenital uses of models for climate change projections?
Emissions scenarios
climate forcing
geophysical impacts
long term geophysical impacts
societal impacts
What is SSP 5?
Mitigation challenges dominate
FF development
High S-E challenges for mitigation
Low S-E challenges for adaptation
high -education level
High -international trade
Rapid - tech development
Mid - land use regulation
