L2: Strategic Interactions and the Rational Choice Approach to the Study of IR

Question 1

Explanation requires

Answer 1

Theory

Question 2

Theory definition

Answer 2

explanation of some empirical phenomena, not a detailed explanation of one single event; expected relationship between variables.: ‘getting the right mechanism’

Question 3

Theory components

Answer 3

• Assumptions
• Logics
• Predictions, hypotheses: statements about how independent variables relate to dependent variables

Question 4

Theorizing starts with

Answer 4

choosing what we think is important to explain our phenomenon of interest

Question 5

Deductive

Answer 5

derives predictions from assumptions using logic; test these hypotheses with past data

Question 6

Induction vs. Deduction

Answer 6

Bottom-down logic vs. top-down logic

Question 7

To evaluate a theory (starting with what we think is important to explain our phenomenon of interest):

Answer 7

• Logical consistency among the assumptions
• Evidence on the predictions
• Comparison with alternative theories in terms of predictive capacity

Question 8

About assumptions in IR

Answer 8

• Group of simplifying conditions under which the theory is believed to be useful to understand a certain phenomenon
• Define the scope conditions for the theory
• Principle of parsimony: the more cases a theory explains with a limited set of assumptions, the more useful it is
• Usefulness of assumptions: leading to explanations/ predictions consistent with reality
• Make the minimal assumptions needed to extract valuable policy insight.

Question 9

Hypotheses vs Law

Answer 9

• Hypotheses are theoretical predictions

- Laws are empirical regularities

Question 10

Falsification

Answer 10

Theories need to be falsifiable to be useful:

- If H1 states ‘if A, then B’; then A occurs but B does not, then the hypothesis is false

Question 11

Falsification conditions

Answer 11

• Sufficiency: if A, then B
• Necessity: only if A, then B
• Sufficiency and necessity: if and only if; reciprocity
• Probabilistic: sometimes: B more likely if A than not A
• Spurious: Something else is causing both A and B
table

Question 12

Scientific method

Answer 12

• Design experiments that control for confounding factors and alternative explanations
• The cases selected for evaluation must be representative

Question 13

Bias

Answer 13

Selecting on the dependant variable. eg: ‘To understand what causes successful revolutions, I look at those which happened and see what they had in common’

Question 14

First principle of Wing Walking

Answer 14

before discarding a theory, you need a better one. Otherwise, just keep the first one.

Question 15

T2 beats T1 if:

Answer 15

• T2 is not falsified by data
• T2 predicts everything that T1 predicts
• T2 predicts additional things