L1: Classic Theories of International Politics: Introduction Flashcards
General Facts
- 70% of time, when allied states are attacked, their allies do not come to their help. This implies alliances are generally unreliable.
- Democracies win more wars than autocracies:
Domestic concern (the electorate) More selective about wars to fight (who hits first is more motivated to win) In-depth evaluation of the chances of winning
Key Ideas
- Focus on leaders (decision-makers), not states
- Choices are constrained
Choices are constrained
- Power
- Preferences
- Perceptions
- Key topics
- Self-Interest drives everything
- Collective Action Problems
- Coordination, Monitoring, Sanctioning
- Endogenous (strategic) choice; Selection effects
Rationality of preferences
- Completeness: ranking alternatives
- Transitivity: A>B and B>C then A>C
Rational choices are
models of action: they predict what people are expected to do depending on their preferences and the constraints they face.
‘The National Interest’
- State as a rational unitary actor
- A State has different objectives:
Maximize power
Maximize wealth
Maximize probability of survival
Arrow’s theorem
Definition
The dictatorial rule is the only aggregation system that converts the ranked preferences of individuals who have three+ discrete alternatives into a community-wide ranking that satisfies the following criteria:
- Unrestricted domain
- Social Transitivity
- Pareto Improvement
- Independence of Irrelevant Alternatives
Arrow’s theorem- Unrestricted domain
All possible preferences are allowed.
Arrow’s theorem- Social Transitivity
Equivalent of transitivity for individuals, applied to the community-wide ranking.
e.g.: consider majority voting
Consider the following preferences for foreign politics of three factions within the US Congress between three policies (more defence, more foreign aid, balance between the two)
o Hawks: Defence > Balance > Foreign Aid
o Doves: Foreign Aid > Defence > Balance
o Moderate: Balance > Foreign Aid > Defence
- Defence vs Balance → Defence
- Defence vs Foreign Aid → Foreign aid
- Foreign Aid vs Balance → Balance
Majority voting can lead to cycles - no social transitivity
Arrow’s theorem- Pareto Improvement
If everybody is at least as wealthy under alternative A than under alternative B, and somebody is wealthier under alternative A than under alternative B, then we want the community-wide ranking to rank A above B.
e.g.: Consider the following preferences for trade policy in a US congressional committee
o Dana: D>P>C>S
o Chris: C>S>D>P
o Pat: P>C>S>D
S is status quo, Dana proposes amendment (D), Chris proposes amendment to amendment (C), and Pat proposes amendment to Chris’s amendment (P).
Consider the order going from last amendment to first (used in US congressional committees)
1. P vs C→P
2. P vs D→D
3. D vs S→S
S wins, even though everybody prefers C to S.
Arrow’s theorem- Independence of Irrelevant Alternatives
Social preferences between multiple options depend only on the individual preferences between those options, and the way individuals rank other options is irrelevant.
e.g. 1: Consider the following preferences
1. B > A > I
2. B > A > I
3. A > I > B
4. A > B > I
Using Borda Count: if there are N alternatives, each individual gives N-1 to the first ranked alternative, N-2 to the second, and so on. Then we add the votes.
o A=6votes
o B=5votes
o I=1vote
Here, A is socially preferred to B.
e.g.1bis: Now assume that we introduce a new alternative, D
1. B > D > A > I
2. B > D > A > I
3. A > I > B > D
4. D > A > B > I
o A=7votes o B=8votes o I=2votes o D=7votes With D, social ranking between A and B is reversed.
Implications of Arrow’s Theorem
- ‘National Interest’ is a questionable concept
- It is impossible to aggregate individual preferences in a way that makes sense
Four perspectives of IR
- Realism/Neorealism
Grounded in failure of The League of Nations
Reflective of a strongly unitary state as in absolute monarchy or tyranny
Focused on conflict rather than cooperation - Liberalism
Grounded in Wilsonian optimism
Focused on cooperation rather than conflict - Constructivism
Concerned with preference formation
Focused on norms and socialization - Strategic
Grounded in game theory/strategic interaction
Focused on interplay of domestic and international interactions