L18 - Expert decision making Flashcards
Do experts exhibit the same biases as undergraduates?
Yes, they are still subject to biases.
What are 5 biases that experts exhibit?
Confirmation bias
Hindsight bias
Framing effects
Anchoring effects
Overconfidence
What are some potential problems with the JDM research regarding the ‘sceptical view of expertise’?
How frequent and severe are biases outside the lab? (framing can reduce bias)
Are heuristics usually successful? (Gigerenzer, 95% of judges were accurate)
Procedures must be accessible in natural settings (interventions must be applicable in target environment)
How did JDM research show that experts may not be as biased as original research showed?
When questions were framed around the experts field of expertise, bias was reduced.
- Accountants were less likely to be biased when the question was posed in accounting terms (in their field of expertise)*
- Medical residents are less influenced by ‘sunk cost’ reasoning for medical (vs non-medical) decisions (field of expertise)*
- After training, geologists are well calibrated to find oil with accurate probability.*
True or False
Biases have been demonstrated in decision making by experts, but we don’t know the extent to which this occurs outside the lab.
True
True or False
Domain expertise does not help alleviate bias
False
What ‘is’ an expert?
An individual who has achieved exception skill in one particular domain
How do we decide who is an expert or who is not?
Test for expertise or peer nomination
What is the problem with the phrase “why do experts predict badly”?
If an expert is someone who has demonstrated competence in the field, then saying ‘they predict badly’ in normative terms is a fallacy as they are the best predictors we have.
What distinguishes experts from non-experts?
Expert Knowledge
What does ‘expert knowledge’ include?
Mental models of how things work (understanding of complex dynamics and events)
Sense of typicality and associations (rapidly recognise and interpret complex patterns in information and assess situations quickly and accurately)
Routines; they have a wide variety of tactics for achieving goals
How do experts use mental models?
They run mental simulations to make an estimate or determine how to act.
They find reference points and use their mental models to improvise in unique situations.
What is the Recognition-Primed Decision (RPD) model?
A descriptive model of how experts use knowledge to make judgements and decide how to act.
What is the fundamental idea behind the recognition-primed decision (RPD) model?
Due to the knowledge and experience of experts (their mental model) the first possible course of action that they generate is of high quality.
Explain a simple match (variation 1) in the RPD model.
Experts see a familiar situation which is judged as routine.
The decision is clear and automatic and does not require deliberation.
Describe diagnose the situation (variation 2) in the RPD model.
In an unfamiliar situation experts deliberate about the situation, often to seek more information.
Once the situation is assessed, the course of action becomes more obvious.
Mental simulation may be used to understand how the situation arose.
Describe evaluate course of action (variation 3) in the RPD model.
Sometimes the expert seeks to evaluate the initial course of action being considered.
They envision a course of action, run a mental simulation to mentally ‘test’ is effectiveness.
If this is judged inadequate, develop and simulate a second course of action, rinse and repeat.
