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judgment Flashcards

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1
Q

what is judgement?

A

deciding the likeliness of various events with incomplete evidence

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2
Q

what is decision-making?

A

select one option from several different possibilities

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3
Q

what helps inform decision-making?

A

judgements

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4
Q

what is dual process theory (Kahneman, 2003)?

A

we have 2 cognitive subsystems for thinking

system 1 - fast and emotionally-charged (gut feeling/intuition) that uses little conscious effort = everyday decisions

system 2 - slow and effortful where we weigh up different concepts and reach a logical decision = complex decisions

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5
Q

what system are you most likely to use when you’re tired?

A

system 1 - automatic

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6
Q

what evidence supports dual process theory?

A

fMRI & MRI studies

  • found that content based reasoning used the left hemisphere temporal system and abstract formal problems used a parietal system
  • it depends on the use of semantic context
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7
Q

what are the limitations of dpt?

A

oversimplification
- a flexible processing
- less confident in their answers so they use system 1
- found the conflict detection area shows activation which shows systems can work simultaneously

too reliant on system 1

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8
Q

what is (expected) utility theory?

A

how people should make big decisions when there is uncertainty

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9
Q

what does utility refer to?

A

individuals will choose the outcomes that achieve a person’s goal at maximum utility

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10
Q

where is eut used to predict behaviour?

A

economics

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11
Q

what theory directly challenged utility theory?

A

prospect theory? (tversky & kahneman, 1979)

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12
Q

what is prospect theory?

A

accurately described how decisions are made:

  • assume losses and gains are valued differently
  • make decisions based on perceived gains
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13
Q

what is a reference point?

A

risky choice -> gains -> risk averse behaviour -> solutions with a lower expected utility theory -> higher certainty

OR

risky choice -> losses -> risk seeking behaviour -> solutions with a lower expected utility as long as it can avoid losses

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14
Q

what is an example of prospect theory?

A

we feel the gain of £100 less than the loss of £100

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15
Q

what is an example of prospect theory?

A

end result = £25

  1. given £25 outright
  2. given £50 and have to give £25 back
  • utility = same

-more likely to choose option 1 as a single gain is seen as more favourable than a loss

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16
Q

how do we make judgements?

A

base rate information -frequency an event occurs within a population

= info we need to make a decision

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17
Q

why do we ignore base rate information?

A

we see it as irrelevant

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18
Q

what are heuristics?

A

judgements based on shorts cuts (rule of thumb) rather than the full knowledge

-needs less effort
-quick
-accurate

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19
Q

what are the different heuristics types?

A

availability
representativeness

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20
Q

what is availability heuristics?

A

events that are more easily remembered are judged as more probable (more afraid of things on the news than other things we haven’t heard even tho they are worse)

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21
Q

what are the different types of information that we use in the availability heuristic to make a decision?

A

recent
frequent
extreme
vivid
negative

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22
Q

what is salience bias?

A

individuals focus on items that are more prominent/emotional and ignore unremarkable even though the difference is irrelevant

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23
Q

what can the availability heuristic lead to?

A

illusionary correlation:
- leads to stereotypes

-media can reinforce it (only cover certain things in the news)

24
Q

what is representativeness heuristics?

A
  • judgements based on how much one event resembles another#
  • ignores base rate info
  • insensitive to sample size
25
Q

what is conjunction fallacy?

A

the combination of 2 events is more likely than one on its own

26
Q

what is gambler’s fallacy? (tversky & kahneman, 70s)

A

if a random event has occurred several times before in the past, we predict that it will occur less in the future

27
Q

what does gamblers fallacy fail to recognise?

A

randomness = small samples are more representatives in the population

28
Q

what is confirmation bias?

A

tendency to only seek out information that supports one idea

29
Q

what should you do to avoid confirmation bias?

A

consider both supporting and challenging evidence

30
Q

what are some things that cause confirmation bias?

A
  • seeking evidence to confirm hypothesis
  • don’t change beliefs when finding contradicting evidence
31
Q

what evidence is there for confirmation bias?

A

reinterpreting disconfirming evidence
- “ i was right new york would have won if it hadnt been for that injury” = losses are classed as ‘near wins’

belief perseverance
- disconfirming evidence is ignored

32
Q

what is the suicide note experiment (belief perseverance)?

A

participants had to pick the authentic suicide note

  • those who were told they did well rated themselves higher and vice versa
  • feedback was random
33
Q

what are framing effects?

A

options that are presented with positive (gain) or negative connotations (loss)

34
Q

what is a positive framing effect?

A

“95% effective”

35
Q

what is a negative framing effect?

A

“5% failure”

36
Q

what is the difference in framing effects with people?

A

strangers -> deterministic choices
family -> probabilistic choices

37
Q

what factors can affect decision-making?

A

emotion and mood

38
Q

what system are you more likely to use in a happy mood?

A

system 1 - don’t focus on the details

39
Q

what system are you more likely to use in a sad mood?

A

system 2 - rely on pre-existing knowledge and details

40
Q

what are neuroeconomics?

A

studying brain areas as people play economic games

41
Q

what does neuroeconomics show?

A

our emotions override our decision making

42
Q

what is the ultimatum game?

A
  • 2 people = prosper / responder
  • prosper decides how money is split (10$)
  • responder accepts or rejects
  • if both accepts no one gets it
  • 2 conditions = human/human & human/computer
  • utility theory predicts responder should accept any offer = same amount of money -> same acceptance
  • responders reject low human offers but similar offers from a computer
  • brain imaging -> areas activated associated with pain, distress, anger when we get cheeky offers
43
Q

what are clinical errors in decision making?

A

people making wrong decisions at the wrong time in a clinical setting
e.g. wrong medication

44
Q

what is the dual processing model in clinical decision making? (croskerry, 2009)

A
  1. illness is presented
  2. either recognise pattern or not
  3. recognise = system 1
  4. diagnoses
  5. don’t recognise = system 2
  6. seeing it more often (overlearning) = turns system 2 into system 1!
    = really hard to keep system 2 activated
    7.
45
Q

do errors tend to occur more in system 1 or 2?

A

1

46
Q

what does repetitive process in system 2 lead to?

A

processing in system 1

47
Q

what system does the brain default to?

A

1

48
Q

what is anchoring? (focalism)

A

depend too heavily on an initial piece of information to make decisions based on our reference point

e.g. black friday (prices)

49
Q

how do you reduce the anchoring effect?

A

research disconfirming evidence

50
Q

what are the 3 types of strategies in clinical settings?

A

motivational -> cognitive -> technological

51
Q

what do these strategies help to do?

A

debias in the workplace and reduce clinical error

52
Q

what is needed for motivational strategies to work?

A

the motivation to do it -> incentives / accountability

53
Q

what is needed for cognitive strategies to work?

A

context-specific rules (e.g. specific training)

54
Q

what is needed for technological strategies to work?

A

use of technology external to decision maker

55
Q

how do we debias?

A
  • person must want to change bias
  • need to be able to suppress automated response (system 1)
    = e.g. training
56
Q

what is the effectiveness of debiasing?

A

69% partially successful

  • computers -> 87%
  • cognitive strategies -> 50%

cognitive psychology (6 decks)

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