Investments Topic 7 - Risk Flashcards
The equity risk premium (ERP) is the difference between
equities and low-risk investments (gilts) in relation of risk taken
3 areas of risk in financial sector
- Investment – probability of not/achieving expected return on investment
- Operational – risk of losses as a cause of internal processes, people and systems
- Business/reputational – the exposure that a company has to factors that will lower profits
Capital risk
when there is a risk of losing some or all of the original investment. Only fix to this is investing into deposit accounts, which causes inflation risk.
Income risk, comes in 2 forms
- Risk that income from investments will reduce e.g. variable interest investments may decrease income
- Risk that income generated from investments will not keep up with inflation rates
Shortfall risk
where investments may not meet investors’ expectations, such as the endowment scandal for interest-only mortgages. Riskier investments typically include shortfall risk, whereas deposit accounts don’t
Liquidity and access risk
liquidity refers to the ability to turn the investments into cash quickly. Access refers to whether the investor can freely access the money in an investment
Interest risk, shown in 2 ways
- Savers in variable rate accounts may suffer from bad rates
- Savers in fixed-rate accounts with penalties can suffer if general rates increase
Inflation risk
risk that the real value of money will fall in investments
Currency risk
risk that investments overseas can be eroding if the currency moves up/down
Systemic risk
where an individual’s action can affect the wider system altogether. Creates a domino effect, exactly like the failure of Lehmann Brothers in 2008.
Systematic risk
sometimes known as market risk, and it is when events will cause share prices and other asset values to fall even though the companies remain solvent. Examples can be wars, recession, inflation etc.
Key difference between systemic and systematic risk
systemic starts with failure of one individual within the market that sets off a chain reaction whereas systematic is an external event which causes sector-wide changes.
Non-systematic risk
relates to risk of an individual investment/sector collapsing and prices decreasing. For example changes in company policy or companies collapsing will reduce value of shares for that company only
Gearing
Term used when a company borrows to invest and is expressed by showing borrowing as a percentage of capital and reserves
Volatility is measured by
its standard deviation from its benchmark/average trade price, known as the expected return
Standard deviation is
a mathematical equation that helps to establish how far the share price has deviated from its average, and this lets you know how volatile the share currently is.
2 main measures of volatility:
- Alpha
- Beta
Beta factors:
(The measurement system for Beta)
- Beta factor 1 – where the holding moves in line with the market or index
- Beta factor over 1 – where the holding fluctuates more widely than the benchmark, making it more volatile
- Beta factor below 1 – where the holding fluctuates less than the benchmark
Calculation for alpha performance measurement
In order to calculate the present or future value of money, you will need to know any four of:
- Interest rate
- Payment(s) amount
- Number of payment periods
- Present value
- Future value
Simple interest
when interest added is based on the ORIGINAL CAPITAL each year. E.g. investment of £1,000 at 4% interest would be £1,040 on first year, £1,080 on second year and £1,120 on third year.
Compound interest
when interest is added to the capital and interest earns interest itself.
Discounting
opposite of compounding but can use compound interest tables to work out. Shows how much must be invested now to gain certain amount in the future.
Pound cost averaging
– buying investments over a longer time period and drip feeding them in instead of buying them all at once. This is so that if the market declines sharply, only the amount that has currently been invested gets affected