Inverse probabilities and evaluating consequences

Question 1

Correspondence framework for accuracy

Answer 1

1. Measurable criterion
2. Same criterion is judges by judge and evaluator
3. Judge is motivated to minimise errors + Error costs are symmetric

Question 2

How to avoid inverse probability confusion?

Answer 2

1. Do not use verbal or visual cues - Because biased

2. Use graphical tools (decision trees)

Question 3

Probability fallacies

Answer 3

1. Conjunction fallacy - More specific conditions are more likely than more general ones
2. Disjunction fallacy - Underestimate the probability that no event will occur = (1 - Pr1) * (1 - Pr2) * (1 - Pr 3) * …

Question 4

Bayes’ theorem

Answer 4

Pr(hypothesis I evidence) = Pr (evidence I hypothesis) * Pr(hypothesis) divided by Pr (evidence)

People make mistakes because they focus on salient hypothesis and ignore base rates

Question 5

Good things satiate and bad things escalate

Answer 5

1. Peak-end principle
2. Duration neglect
3. Hedonic relativism - You get used to the situation

Question 6

Emotions and evaluations

Answer 6

1. You can feel more than one emotion at once (duh)
2. Weber’s function - The proportion by which a stimuli must be changed to observe a difference
3. Fechner’s law - Actually difference between physical and psychological change in intensity

Question 7

Prospect theory

Answer 7

1. Changes are evaluated from a reference level
2. Value function is steeper for losses than for gains
3. PT describes actual behaviour, not rational behaviour

Question 8

Evaluation heuristics

Answer 8

1. Availability heuristic
2. Similarity heuristic
3. Non-regressive prediction - We overestimate how positively/negatively we will feel
4. Immune neglect - We adapt more than we think
5. Bounded self-control - Is biased by our current emotional state
6. Diversification bias
7. Memory retrieval is context dependent