Anchoring and judging heuristically Flashcards
1
Q
Anchoring
A
- Based on memory availability
- People under-adjust
- Anchoring is usually based on:
- Average
- Status quo
- Projection (anchoring on ourselves) - Because of false consensus effect
- Anchoring the past on the present (retrospective bias) - Salience - Thinking of monetary values v. probabilities of winning and thereby anchor on one or the other - Preference reversals
- ‘Take the best’ - Use one persuasive salient cue and not even bother to adjust it
2
Q
Estimating frequencies
A
- People overestimate low probabilities and underestimate high probabilities
- Small objective frequencies (1-5 events) are highly accurate whereas bigger ones are often underestimated - Because availability in memory is more difficult to access
3
Q
Availability heuristic process
A
- Storage of info in LTM
- Retention
- Recognition of situation in which info is relevant
- Cue memory for relevant info
- Retrieval of items associated with memory
- Assess ease of retrieval
- Estimate frequency based on ease of retrieval
4
Q
Availability heuristic
A
- Biased by salience
- Biased by emotions
- We under-deduce (from universal to particular) and over-induce (from particular to universal)
5
Q
Sub-additivity
A
When the sum of probabilities of each outcome equals more than 1
Why? Because each outcome is considered separately. + Unpacking of events by listing the sub-events can lead to higher probability of each outcome
6
Q
Similarity heuristic
A
- Can lead to wrong similarity-probability heuristics - Because a subject resembles more a sub-group doesn’t mean it has a higher probability of belonging to the sub-group than to the group!
- Contrast model:
- We evaluate similarity by evaluating and comparing the attributes of each subject
- Listing attributes that match and those that don’t
- But sometimes we only access one schema to evaluate similarity whereas it might be just as similar to another non-considered schema - We must look at base rates!
7
Q
Ratio rule
A
Pr(cIS) = Pr(c and S) / Pr(S)
Pr(cIS) / Pr(SIc) = Pr(c) / Pr(S)
Confusion of the inverse - People should consider base rates!