Explanation-based judgements and thinking irrationally about uncertainty

Question 1

Conjunction probability error

Answer 1

1. Belief that a specific combination of events is more likely than parts of the combination
2. To prevent that you should consider each even separately
3. Even if each event is highly probable, the combination of events may still be improbable because = Pr1 * Pr2 * Pr3 * …

Question 2

Why do people commit conjunction probability error?

Answer 2

1. Because coïncidences are more salient
2. Because uniqueness together with best-fitting scenario is persuasive
3. More specific stories with an identifiable causal link is judged more likely - Because of coherence people anchor-and-adjust but under adjust

Question 3

Order of proof effect

Answer 3

Timeline if persuasive because it helps contract a coherent storyline

Question 4

Illusions of control

Answer 4

Tendency to treat events of chance as if they can be controlled through skill

Question 5

Randomness and illusory structure

Answer 5

1. Tendency to treat random events as non-random because the sequence shows less alteration than expected stereotype of randomness
2. Gambler’s fallacy - Belief that chances of independent random events mature if they have not occurred in a while
3. Truly random sequences often contain bunches of events
4. Texas sharpshooter fallacy - Looking for causal links in randomness

Question 6

Regression towards the mean

Answer 6

1. Regression = Perfect relationship - correlation
2. Can explain why people prefer punishment to reward
3. Can explain overconfidence in success of interventions (because it can only get better)

Question 7

Simple event

Answer 7

1

Question 8

Conjunction of events

Answer 8

1 and 6

Question 9

Disjunction of events

Answer 9

1 and/or 6

Question 10

Conditional

Answer 10

1 given that the total is 7