Individuals

Question 0

When do individuals matter more?

Answer 0

Byman/Pollack:

1) power is concentrated
2) greater influence of leaders’ personalities
3) when domestic/bureaucratic constrains weak
4) fluid circumstances

Question 1

Why do individuals matter?

Answer 1

Daniel Byman and Kenneth Pollack:
“We contend that the goals, abilities, and foibles of individuals are crucial to the intentions, capabilities, and strategies of a state.”

-human nature not a constant, a variable. Not all are Hobbesian. But Waltz says states would always be at war if just up to one leader

Question 2

What are the four strands of FP views in American tradition? Why is this relevant?

Answer 2

Walter Russell Mead wrote in his article “the Carter Syndrome”that:

• Hamiltonians want strong FP, strong military, and US biz first
• Wilsonians agree on global FP, but want democracy and HR first
• Jeffersonians are isolationists and want to dismantle the nat’l security state
• Jacksonians are populists, suspicious of Hamiltonian business, Wilsonian do-gooding, and Jefferson’s weakeness

Question 3

Why is WR Mead’s argument relevant?

Answer 3

If leaders are inconsequential, then what is the use of analyzing their foreign policy preferences?

Question 4

How do misperceptions factor into war and peace?

Answer 4

Robert Jervis, “War and misperception”: areas of misp. are intentions/capabilities/consequences of states

• bandwagoning/balancing dynamics lead to misperceptions
• overest/underest of hostility lead to war (WWI & WWII)
• states view their actions as benign, others’ as hostile (a policy choice could be the result of internal bargaining)

Question 5

Explain faulty analogical reasoning

Answer 5

Yuen Foo Khong wrote that historical analogies often fail us

• similarities are surface deep
• give prescriptions/instant assessments, policy makers like them. But wrong
• certain historical “cues” evoke a “set” of memories
• Anthony Eden saw Nasser as Hitler, critiques of negotiating with Iran evoke Chamberlain

Question 6

What are some of the weaknesses/limitations of sub-state, individual, levels of analyses?

Answer 6

• Cannot by themselves explain causes of major interstate war, takes two or more to go to war
• hard to make into a theory, good explanatory value bad predictive value

Question 7

Explain prospect theory

Answer 7

Jack Levy: ppl value what they have, frame world in terms of what they might loose.

• status-quo bias
• -> leaders take risks to keep what they have
• risk losing a little now to keep a lot