Coercion theory Flashcards
How is deterrence used?
The threat of force to stop the actions of an opponent.
- Only works against a rational actor who values something.
- Campaigns must be allocated over time and apportioned in intensity.
- Successful deterrence is not using force
What are the four uses of military force?
Robert Art wrote that they are:
1) defensive
2) deterrent (passive)
3) compellent (active)
4) swaggering
Who is the founding theorist of deterrence theory?
Thomas Schelling
How is deterrence different from compellence? What does coercion require to be successful?
-Deterrence theory seeks to stop an actor from undertaking an action not yet started
- Compellence theory aims to force an actor to stop or reverse an action
- Conceptually simple, hard in practice
- Coercion requires credibility, capacity, commitment, and an understanding between both sides
What are the four C’s of coercion?
1) communication (direct or trusted third party)
2) credibility
3) capability
4) calculation (is the actor rational?
How can one beat deterrence?
Can slowly chip away at red lines, a la Assad, and erode credibility
What is coercion theory susceptible to?
Manipulation of risk = willingness to raise stakes to test will. Hurts both sides.
Susceptible to the “shadow of the future” where two sides *back down
What is brinkmanship?
Actions that impose risk rather than damage are acts of brinkmanship.
Creating risk - shared risk - is a technique of compellence.
What are alternatives to force?
1) engagement: conditional (reciprocity) and unconditional.
- -can include incentives (aid)
2) arms control: promotes normalization and stability
- -control doable, disarming not
- -⬆️# of weapons ⬆️chance of war
- -lessens damage from war
3) sanctions: can compel an enemy to stop bad behavior
What is positive engagement?
Victor Cha wrote, with regards to North Korea, says the carrot is better than the stick.
Engagement prevents lashing out and brinksmanship.
Can mitigate coercive bargaining strategies (initiating small crises for advantage)
What role do nukes play?
Nukes cancel each other out - only the conventional balance matters.
Risk of nuclear war impacts political behavior.
Crises test resolve / risk taking.
Can terrorists be deterred?
Davis and Jervis said that you can use a portfolio of incentives.
Terrorist groups are systems, parts can be influenced/engaged.
Financiers, logisticians, etc
What are sanctions?
Negative incentives.
Seeks to achieve containment, behavior change, or regime change.
If change in behavior, must respond quickly with positive reinforcement.
Works better with alliances.
Why is compellence harder than deterrence?
1) compellence is active
2) compellence had a specific timeframe
3) harder to pull away b/c reputation at stake
4) psychological factors: puts target in domain of losses, more risk acceptant (if you perceive you are loosing) –> prospect theory
