How the media have influenced election times/Prime Ministers (add back after adding video notes #2)

Question 1

Describe the opinion polls - 1997 general election

Answer 1

1. significantly, 1992 had been an election which the opinion pollsters would rather forget: many had predicted that Labour would win whereas, in the end, the Conservatives won, albeit with a very small majority
2. in comparison, 1997 seemed to bring no real risk of the polls getting it so wrong that they might predict the wrong winner: Labour was far ahead
3. there was some disagreement between the different pollsters (with Labour polling between 43% & 53% & the Conservatives between 28% & 33%)
4. the polls had moved closer by the months before the election: in 1996 one poll put Labour over 60% & the Conservatives down at 21%
5. in the first year or two of Tony Blair’s leadership of the Labour Party they regularly polled over 50% & the Conservatives rarely got out of the 20s
6. it is worth bearing in mind that Labour were polling consistently in the 40s under John Smith’s leadership too & did hit 50% on occasion
7. the bigger change was the decline in the Conservative vote from the high 30s in 1992 to rarely leaving the 20s within a couple of years
8. as such a bigger factor than Labour’s change of leadership & direction might have been the unpopularity of the government, the impression that they were deeply divided over Europe & various scandals kept rocking the party

Question 2

Describe the recent context of the media bias - 1997 general election

Answer 2

1. some Labour thinkers put 1992’s defeat down to the role of the media; funnily enough some parts of the media also took credit for it
2. The Sun famously ran with the headline “It was the Sun what won it”
3. in response, Tony Blair made a conscious decision to court The Sun’s notorious owner, Rupert Murdoch
4. Tony Blair benefitted from this, in fact The Sun decided to back Labour in the 1997 election, while another of Murdoch’s traditionally-conservative papers, The Times, chose not to back either party, but was more positive about Labour than the Conservatives

Question 3

Describe the historical context of media bias - 1997 general election

Answer 3

1. some argue that the impact of The Sun might be overstated: the paper had backed the winning party in every UK general election since the 1970s
2. it had been a Labour paper until famously switching to the Conservatives in 1979
3. however, it could be argued that The Sun is just good at predicting election results & backing winners: it is not clear that their backing actually has that big an impact on the final result
4. although, 2010 is sometimes presented as an exception to The Sun’s power over election results, as Cameron failed to win a majority, despite the Sun having loudly switched support back from Labour to the Conservatives

Question 4

Describe the general media bias - 1997 general election

Answer 4

1. in 1997, Blair thought the support of The Sun important enough to go to Australia to meet with Murdoch
2. furthermore, the biggest increase in Labour voters came among Sun readers, while the biggest collapse in Conservatives voters came among readers of The Times
3. while Times readers still backed the Conservatives more than Labour, over half the readers of The Sun backed Labour
4. actually while readers of The Sun, The Star, The Guardian, The Independent & The Mirror all backed Labour - with the biggest support coming from Mirror readers, followed by Guardian readers; The Express, The Daily Mail, The Telegraph, the Financial Times & The Times all had large Conservative leads among their readers
5. the main possible conclusion is that, by this election, daily newspapers were beginning to lose their significance in effecting voting behaviour with people increasingly getting their political news (& therefore views) from television news

Question 5

Describe the history of ‘spin doctors’ - 1997 general election

Answer 5

1. another significant factor in the 1997 general election was the impact of spin doctors; they were not an entirely new thing: politicians had employed press advisors for many years, & Sir Bernard Ingram had famously carried out the role for Margaret Thatcher
2. however, New Labour approached the press in a new way, seeking out a message, keeping spokespeople “on message” & trying to manipulate the press & the television news to put across the message of the day
3. the key figure on the Labour side who performed this role was Alistair Campbell; Campbell & other figures like Peter Mandelson, carefully courted journalists & editors from across the various media & ensured that they got stories ready-packaged that would put across the message of the day

Question 6

Describe the short-term impact of ‘spin doctors’ - 1997 general election

Answer 6

1.the media created by ‘spin doctors’ was highly effective & was driven by focus group & poll data to try & ensure that the Labour Party was seen to care about the issues that the public cared about
2. in government, the relationship between Campbell & the political correspondents of the various daily newspapers became a much more combative & aggressive one, but between 1994 & 1997, journalists were wooed, flattered & rewarded with access, interviews & good stories
3. both main parties have tried to use similar tactics in the years since, but the general public is much more alert to spin now than they were then & journalists are more keen to expose spin & media manipulation rather than respond to it