Heuristics Flashcards
1
Q
Conjunction Fallacy
A
people tend to combine two probabilities to make a higher probability for both occurring; this is not how probability works (it would be smaller) -> conjunction cannot have a higher probability than the marginal
2
Q
Hindsight Bias
A
(also known as the availability heuristic) if you can recall something in hindsight, it must have a high probability (false)
ex: airplane crashes
3
Q
Framing Effect
A
framing can effect how we view equivalence
ex: 1/3 of 600 will be saved v. 2/3 will perish
4
Q
Confirmation Bias
A
Seeking positive information to confirm what we already believe to be true
