Hard cards Flashcards
What is multiplication
A and B not mutually exclusive P(A&B) <>0
P(A and B both true): P(A&B) = P(A|B)*P(B)
Outcomes are independent if knowing one does not tell you anything about the other.
What are humans well prepared for?
Humans are well prepared to make fast and simple decisions in a stable, predictable environment with relatively few homogeneous actors and to spend more energy than strictly necessary.
What are judgments?
(the process of) Attaching a qualitative/quantitative value to something
Could be estimates, evaluations, opinions, etc.
What is the central notion of dual process theory?
Accessibility
Things that come to mind easier are judged to be more likely, frequent, probable, etc.
What describes system 2?
Slow, effortful, conscious and explicit.
You are aware of your own thinking, you are deliberately making a judgment or decision.
What describes system 1?
Intuitive, fast, automatic, emotional, effortless, system of decision making.
What is additivity?
2 outcomes of event, both mutually exclusive.
2 outcomes of event, both mutually exclusive.
What is representativeness (heuristic)?
Things that are typical for their category are judged to be more likely, frequent, probable etc.
You compare situations to mental prototypes/stereotypes instead of statistical reasoning.
What is prospect theory (Kahneman & Tversky 1979)
We hate risk, unless it enables us to see a path out of a bad situation.
What effectively happens with framing in our minds?
System 1 kicks in, causing us to become risk averse with gains and risk-seeking with losses. System 1 causes us to make a wrong choice.
What are two special cases in prospect theory?
Certainty effect and possibility effect.
What are the two main elements in prospect theory?
S-shape and framing
What is the ellsberg paradox?
Ambiguity aversion: we are willing to pay less for a vague choice than for a clear choice
What has a disproportionate weight in system 1 versus system 2?
Easily accessible perceptions, impressions, intuitions, etc. from system 1 have a disproportionate weight on our judgments and choices.
What is anchoring?
When estimating numbers, we start out from something that we know (anchor) and adjust upward or downward. The anchor can be completely arbitrary.
What is the primacy effect?
First item weight heavier, and acts like an anchor.