Guides - Drive Flashcards
What is a good PE investment
- Stable and defensible cash flows
- Low capital investment and working capital needs
- Operational Levers to pull (volume, prices increases, cut costs, etc.)
- Can bolt on companies
- Divestable / monetizable assets
- Cheap price
- Attractive industry. Growth.
- Clean balance sheet with credit support capability
- MGT team
- Exit strategy
What are some due diligence questions?
Industry Questions
- Porter’s 5 (Supplier, Customer, Substitute, Competitive Rivalry, Entrants)
- How are products differentiated in terms of price, brand, and service
- The concentration of customers / suppliers
Company Specific - Operational
- Competitive positioning
- Growth disaggregated in terms of price and volume (room to increase volume via market growth or market share growth (think WSO model) or increase prices)
- How does the company and MGT respond during downturns? Cyclical business? Tied to commodity prices?
- Cost structure (operating leverage)
- ROIC / how well do they utilize assets
- what is their capex like (growth vs. maintenance, future capex needs)
- how is working capital managed?
Company Specific - Financial
- Cash, debt, off balance sheet liabilities
- Projected financials? Capexs?
Company Specific - Strategic
- Any non-core business lines?
- Room for improvement or rationalization?
Company Specific - Management
- MGT trackrecord during downturns
- MGT performance at prior companies - were they able to increase margins?
Company Specific - External
- Regulatory or legal risks?
Exit Strategy
- Is industry consolidating and sale is an option?
- State of industry in equity and credit markets
“Good business” case studies
What are the key bullet points you need to know if something is a good business?
- MGT
- Margins
- Cash flow positive
- Loyal customers, brand
- MGT alignment
If I was talking with the CEO and could ask three questions, what would I ask?
Paper LBO - Things to Know
- Cap structure
- Duration of investment
- Projected EBITDA for FCF and exit value
- D&A
- Interest / cost of debt
- Tax rate
- Capex
- NWC
- Exit multiple
Why EV/EBITDA over P/E?
- Value of company available to all capital holders. We’re going to put our own capital structure on the business after close
- On that, EBITDA a better approximation of unlevered operating cash flow
- Accounting manipulations to NI such as accelerated depreciation
- Value firms that have negative NI
What are ways a firm can spend FCF?
Invest in the company (Capex)
Enter new markets or product lines (organic growth, R&D)
M&A (Expand, take out competition, synergies)
Financing decisions –> retiring debt and stock; issue dividends
Given no multiple expansion and flat EBITDA, how to create value
Increase FCF to paydown debt
- refinance with lower cost paper
- lower capex, quicker cash conversion cycle
- lower taxes
More leverage
Pay yourself a dividend
Management fees if below the line
LBO Model Drivers?
EBITDA growth (comes from revenue growth and ebitda margin expansion)
Multiple expansion (cheap price, good exit)
Debt Paydown
Leverage at close
If you have company with P/E of 10x and cost of debt of 5%, which is cheaper?
Cost of earnings here is 1/10 = 10%
Debt is cheaper
NCI problems
Revenues and expenses are reported on a consolidated basis assuming 100% ownership.
Only at the end of the income statement do you back out earnings attributable to NCI.
So you ADD back NCI to your EV calc so you get apples to apples on your EV/EBITDA
Or you can take ownership % of EBITDA
Asset
- Carrying Amount > Tax Basis =
- Carrying Amount < Tax Basis =
Liabilitiy
- Carrying Amount > Tax Basis =
- Carrying Amount < Tax Basis =
Asset
- Carrying Amount > Tax Basis = DTL
- Carrying Amount < Tax Basis = DTA
Liabilitiy
- Carrying Amount > Tax Basis = DTA
- Carrying Amount < Tax Basis = DTL
Income Tax on IS =
Cash taxes payable + increase in DTL - increase in DTA
DTAs essentiallyt the plug between cash taxes payable and income tax expense on IS
Captial Leases vs Operating Leases
Capital leases - payments separated into interest and operating expenses
Operating leases - payments in operating expenses only
Beta levered formula
Beta Unlevered * (1+(1-T)* D/E)
How do NOLs flow through the 3 statements?
$200 NOL BoP; $100 pretax income; 40% tax rate
First you have an NOL balance that is kept off the balance sheet that represents prior negative years’ taxable income.
Your DTA balance = NOL * tax rate
Change in balance = Nol * (NOL created less NOL used)
Tax expenses on the IS do not change
Taxes payable reduced by this NOL amount
Ex DTA on BS = 200*.4=80 1. Calculate NOL used. = $100 100*.4=40 decrease in DTA 2. IS doesn't change. Tax expense of 100*.4=40; NI of $60 2. CF statement = decrease in DTA increases cash 60+40=100 3. BS Cash up 100, DTA down 40, RE up 60
Now what if you have a $100 loss?
BoP $200 NOL BoP; $100 pretax loss; 40% tax rate
- DTA on BS is 200*.4=80
- NOL = 200+100=300
2a. IS tax shield of 40, 60 loss in NI - Increase in DTA = 100*.4=40, which is a decrease in cash flow. Cash down 100
- Cash down 100
DTA up 40
RE down 60
Now what if you have $250 income?
BoP $200 NOL BoP; $1250 pretax gain; 40% tax rate
Use up all of $200 NOL. New pretax income is $50 * .4 = 20 in actual taxes paid
IS = Tax expense = 250*.4=100 CF = NI of $150 plus decrease in NOL (200*.4)= 80 - Cash of 230 BS = cash up 230, DTA down 80, NI up 150
How do Fx impact the financials?
When a company’s functional currency differs from its reporting currency, it will report gains / losses from Fx impacts.
Temporal method = when sub’s functional currency =/= local currency. Not very independent. Use historical exchange rates to bring over assets and liabs
Current rate method = foreign sub is independent, bring everything over at current rate (not reflected n P&L, but AOCI)
IPO Exits: Pros and Cons
Pros: method of exit when a sale is not available due to no M&A appetite. Put a price to your position. Can use for M&A and incentivize employees.
Cons: No clean exit; may take awhile to unload shares. Uncertainty with share price. Regulatory costs and now in the public sphere
EV less net debt = equity
equity * percentage of position sold = CFs in year 1
Dividend recaps
Capacity for extra debt? Breakage costs? Covenants allow for the dividend? Not a clean exit State of the credit markets
Good to take money off the table and recover some of your basis
NAV Modeling
Present value of reserves assuming no additoinal exploration capex. Cashflow will go to zero when you are out of reserves
- Forecast pricing based on current strip, realized prices (calc differentials), or futuers
- Forecast production (current rate of production, account for type curve)
(IP rate = current production per day today. IP-30=initial production 30)
IP * 365 * decline rate
Can look at comps in similar basins to find decline curves - Expenses and CF items: look at fixed costs and production/transportation costs per Barrel to get to FCF
3 reasons a company would enter a div recap transaction
- Excess debt capacity; boost returns (business has performed better than expected, credit markets opened up)
- Can refinance at a lower rate or wipe restrictive covenants
- Signal to investors strong performance when fundraising
- Reduce exposure
- Can’t find an immediate exit
Sources and uses of a div recap
Sources: new debt issuances, RCF draw, cash on hand
Uses: debt paydown, breakage costs, other fees, dividend to equity holders
Investment Framework
- due diligence questions
- Industry Attractiveness
- Market Size; Underlying market growth
- Barriers to entry / change in market share over time
- Key trends
- Porters 5, stage of business cycle, concentration
- Cyclicality - Competitive Positioning –> okay we like the market
- Target’s performance relative to industry
- Strategy (Cost leadership? Differentiation?)
- Growth trajectory - organic / inorganic?
- Profitability (margins, growth)
- Strengths / weaknesses (economic moat? Sustainabile value creation?) - Strength and Stability of Target –> okay we like the market and the target is taking / holding market share. Is the business model sustainable?
- Current Customer concentration, relationships
- True drivers of profit and performance (product, customer and technology) (Does it vary by product, customer, end market?)
- Target executing? (MGT any good?) - Opportunities / Business Plan and Risk of Target –> Okay we really like this investment. Do the financials / MGT forecast back the story?
- Financial plan –> is it realistic?
- Margins (room for expansion, operational improvement? Margin cushion? FC vs VC)- Stability of earnings
- Growth?
- Consider the downside - Leverage off trough EBITDA
- Stable cash flows? Clean BS? Capex and NWC needs? Hard assets?
- Exit strategy –> okay great investment but how do we get out?
- IPO? Strategic or financial buyer? Sale to a LP?
Other
- Financing? Debt capacity, type etc
- Risk adjusted returns compared to other alternatives (i.e. stocks, bonds, treasuries)
- Potential for value creation (revenue growth, margin expansion, debt paydown, multiple expansion –> make a larger company)
- Potential for bolt-ons
- Opp Cost of replicating ourselves vs. more accretive to acquire?
- Risks (idiosyncratic risk and are they getting paid for it? Look into ROIC and ROE. Should you diversify?)
- (Market risk? Not diversifiable.)
- (Price risk? Risk that will drive returns)