GM - Chapter 10 - Managing Political Risk, Government Relations, and Alliances Flashcards
Political risk
The likelihood that a business foreign investment will be constrained by a host government’s policy.
Macro political risk analysis
Analysis that reviews major political decisions likely to affect all enterprises in the country
Micro political risk analysis
Analysis directed toward government politics and actions that influence selected sectors of the economy or specific foreign businesses in the country
Macro Risk Factors
- Freezing the movement of assets out of the host country
- Placing limits on the remittance of profits or capital
- Devaluing the currency
- Refusing to abide by the contractual terms of agreements previously signed with MNC
- Industrial piracy (counterfeiters)
- Political turmoil
- Government corruption
Micro Risk Factors
- Some MNCs are treated differently than others
- Industry regulation
- Taxes on specific types of business activity
- Restrictive local laws
- Impact of WTO and EU regulations on American MNCs
- Government policies that promote exports and discourage imports
Terrorism and Its Overseas Expansion
- Terrorism: the use of force or violence against others to promote political or social views
- Three types of terrorism: amateur, religiously motivated, and classic
- MNCs disinclined to set up operations in countries with high terrorism risk
- MNCs must assess political risk, install modern security, compile crisis plans, and prepare employees for possible situations
Expropriation Risk
the seizure of businesses by a host country with little, if any, compensation to owners
- Indigenization laws- Require nations to hold a majority interest in an operation
Operational Profitability in Risk Analysis
- Most MNCs are more concerned with operational profitability than expropriation
- They are concerned with ability to make desired return on investment
- – Require MNCs to use domestic suppliers vs. those from other company-owned facilities or purchase in world market
- – Restrict the amount of profit taken out of country
- – Wages and salary that must be paid to employees
Political Risks: Transfer Risks
Government policies that limit transfer of capital, payments, production, people, and technology in and out of country
- Tariffs on exports and imports
- Restrictions on exports
- Dividend remittance
- Capital rapatriation
Political Risks: Operational Risks
Government policies and procedures that directly constrain management and performance of local operations
- Price controls
- Financing restrictions
- Export commitments
- Taxes
- Local sourcing requirements
Political Risks: Ownership Control Risks
Government policies or actions that inhibit ownership or control of local operations
- Foreign-ownership limitations
- Pressure for local participation
- Confiscation
- Expropriation
- Abrogation of proprietary rights
Conglomerate investment
type of high-risk investment in which goods or services produced are not similar to those produced at home
Vertical investment
Production of raw materials or intermediate goods that are to be processed into final products
Horizontal investment
MNC investment in foreign operations to produce the same goods or services as those produced at home
Three sectors of economic activity
- Primary sector: agriculture, forestry, mineral exploration and extraction
- Industrial sector: manufacturing
- Service sector: transportation, finance, insurance, and related industries
Special nature of foreign direct investment can be categorized as one of five types:
- Type I: highest-risk venture (type V is lowest)
- Risk factor is assigned based on sector, technology, and ownership
- Primary sector industries usually have highest risk factor, service sector industries have next highest; industrial sector industries have lowest
- Firms with technology not available to government should firm be taken over have lower risk than those with technology that is easily acquired
- Wholly owned subsidiaries have higher risk than partially owned subsidiaries
Quantifying Variables in Managing Political Risk
- Each factor is given minimum or maximum score; scores tallied for overall evaluation of risk
- Slide 22 gives an example of a quantitative list of political risk criteria
- Factors typically quantified
- –Political and economic environment
- –Domestic economic conditions
- –External economic conditions
Techniques for Responding to Political Risk - Three related corporate political strategies
1) Relative bargaining power analysis
- The MNC works to maintain a bargaining power position stronger than that of host country
2) Integrative, protective, and defensive techniques
- Integrative techniques help overseas operation become part of host country’s infrastructure
- Developing good relations with host government and other local political groups
- Producing as much of product locally as possible with use of in-country suppliers and subcontractors
- Creating joint ventures and hiring local people to manage and run operation
- Doing as much local R&D as possible
- Developing effective labor-management relations
Protective and defensive techniques discourage the host government from interfering in operations
- Doing as little local manufacturing as possible and conducting all research and development outside country
- Limiting responsibility of local personnel and hiring only those who are vital to operation
- Raising capital from local banks and host government as well as outside sources
- Diversifying production of product among number of countries
Proactive political strategies
Lobbying, campaign financing, advocacy and other political interventions designed to shape and influence political decisions prior to impact on firm
- Formal lobbying
- Campaign financing
- Seeking advocacy through embassy and consulates of home country
- Formal public relations and public affairs activities such as grassroots campaigning and advertising
Alliance and joint ventures can significantly improve the success of MNC entry and operation, especially in emerging economies
Preparation for likely eventual termination of alliance
- Faster entry and payback, economies of scale and rationalization, complementary technologies and patents, and co-opting or blocking competition
- Business issues (basic decision to exit, people-related issues, relations with the host government)
Motivating factors
- Faster entry and payback, economies of scale and rationalization, complementary technologies and patents, and co-opting or blocking competition
Alliance or joint-venture partners may be advantageous to MNC entry and expansion
- Highly regulated industries such as banking, telecommunications, and health care
- Cope with emerging markets environments characterized by arbitrary and unpredictable corruption
- May be required by host government
- Host government may be unwilling to permit alliance to terminate
