Global patterns of disease - infectious Flashcards
Why is human evolution slower than viruses and bacteria?
Human generation time (approx 25 yrs) is long, for influenza this is 2-3 days
What is the average time taken to develop a new drug?
15 years
How long does it take to produce and release a vaccine?
3 months to make but 8 years to trial
What are the 3 origins of human infections?
Ancestors
wildlife
livestock
What is the percentage of infections spread by zoonosis?
60-70
What changes in the world are leading to greater rates of transmission?
Increasing population
Transport- e.g. planes
What is epidemiology?
Quantifying the occurrence of disease in population
What does case mean in epidemiology?
Person with a disease or health problem
What is prevalence?
It is the frequency of disease in a population at a given point in time.
How is prevalence calculated?
Number of cases in a population/number of people in a population (at given time)
What does prevalence tell us?
The burden of disease in a population
What is incidence?
Number of new cases arising over a given time
What can prevalence tell us about the risk of developing disease?
How likely you are to develop a disease during a given time period
Which measures and tools are needed to estimate incidence?
Define time, total risk population and an accurate test to determine if the person has the disease
Why might it be difficult to measure whether a case is new or old?
Chronic conditions - can’t tell whether it is new or old
How does incidence influence the development of policies?
One incidence has reached 0, outbreak is over and places can reopen
Why might prevalence increase even if incidence stays the same?
If people with the condition are surviving- e.g. use of medication
What is mortality?
Number of deaths from a particular disease in a given time
If mortality and incidence are equal, what does that mean about the epidemic?
The epidemic is stable
How is mortality calculated?
deaths from a disease in a given time/ population at start of time period
What is the negative aspect of people with disease living longer?
The transmission increases and incidence increases
Prevalence also increases