Futurology and Post-Covid19 effects in Management

Question 1

Methods of “futurology” in management: What is foresight?

Answer 1

The analysis of possible effects of trends.

Question 2

Methods of “futurology” in management: what is ‘trend research’?

Answer 2

The analysis of the processes of change in the present.

Question 3

List 10 methods of “futurology” in management:

Answer 3

1. Monitoring, scanning;
2. Context analysis;
3. Scenario technique;
4. Visioning;
5. Strategic early warning;
6. SWOT-Analysis;
7. Wild Cards;
8. PEST-Analysis;
9. Technology Roadmapping;
10. Trend Canvas

Question 4

What is ‘Trend Canvas’?

Answer 4

a tool developed by the Zukunftinstitut (Frankfurt) for continuous application for comprehensive trend analysis. It is used as a framework for strategic future decisions. It includes participants (individual or team, peer group or heterogenous teams), requirements (definition of a system and definition of the participants) and procedure/logic (discussion of the effects of the individual megatrends on company parameters).

Question 5

What can management theory learn from futurology?

Answer 5

Futurologists are seen as the “seismographs of social change” and make use of extensive methods. Futurology is increasingly pursued on an interdisciplinary basis, and uses a holistic view and open mindset to draw conclusions or “findings” based on natural sciences, mathematics, neurophysiology, psychology and philosophy. Megatrend concepts and practical “toolboxes” of future research methods are also applicable to management forecasting.

Question 6

What is the “Corona Effect” and what are the 4 theoretical scenarios [post-Covid-19]?

Answer 6

4 theoretical future scenarios of how the economy and the society will be affected post-Covid-19. The 4 scenarios are:

1. “Total Isolation”
2. “System-Crash”
3. “System-Tribes” and
4. “Adaption”

Question 7

What are the 5 “robust” megatrends that may possibly change because of Corona?

Answer 7

1. Health
2. Security
3. Globalization
4. Individuality
5. Connectivity

Question 8

What are the 3 “innovation driving” megatrends that may possibly change because of Corona?

Answer 8

1. New work
2. Neo-ecology (environmental awareness changes from individual lifestyle to social movement. Sustainability from the consumption trend to the economic factor. And the climate crisis as the basis of a new global identity.)
3. Silver society (???????)

Question 9

What are the 4 “ambivalent” megatrends that may possibly change because of Corona?

Answer 9

1. Gender shift
2. Urbanization
3. Mobility
4. Knowledge culture

Question 10

What are the 10 future theses for management in a post-corona world? (i.e. what are the possible impacts of the Covid-19 crisis on management?)

Answer 10

1. The corona crisis is a deep crisis – and a coping experience
2. The corona crisis splits megatrends and accelerates trend syntheses
3. The pandemic creates new narratives and mental recoding of society
4. Globalization is jumping to a new level: Globalization
5. Asian Shift and European Renaissance: A new system competition is emerging
6. The crisis leads to new tech-realism – and gives science back its credibility
7. Democracies mature and populism loses power
8. A new generation contract is sealed
9. The pandemic helps the “Blue Revolution” to break through
10. Future as integration: The Next Level Society is born

Question 11

In view of Mintzberg’s assumption, what can be assumed about management in the post-Corona period?

Answer 11

It can be assumed that the “everlasting” characteristics of management will also be justified and remain intact.